After 2002's midterm elections, the attention of the Political World shifts to 2004. Will President Bush be re-elected? Will Republicans gain or lose seats in Congress and the Statehouses? In this brief preview, I'll exam what the year 2004 looks holds from where I sit.adam@adamsweb.usI won't comment on the house because there's way too many variables with every single member of the House up and any number of issues that could be raised. It'll also depend on whether Bush wins big and if he has coattails. Instead, lets go ahead and take a look at the Presidency, the Senate, and the Governors mansion.
The Presidency
President Bush's re-election is about a sure a thing as the Yankees making the World Series-er-bad analogy. Seriously, the Democrats have no one who can really challenge Bush. They're stuck with a collection of tired old politicians, none of whom have been able to knock the president off balance.
Unless something totally unforeseen happens, Democrats are faced with an unenviable choice. Whoever they nominate is going to be a sacrificial lamb. They're going to have to decide if they'll allow a George McGovern type to lead the party to defeat thus sparing more respectable leaders an ignominious defeat, or allow John Kerry or Tom Daschle or Al Gore to end their careers like Walter Mondale ended his.
The Senate
There's some potential for some real changes on Capitol Hill. I count six endangered Incumbents, only one of them is a Republican:
Peter Fitzgerald (R-Ill): Illinois went solidly for Al Gore, and then in 2002, gave Democrats the statehouse for the first time since the Ford Administration while re-electing Senator Richard Durbin (D-Ill) by a wide margin. Fitzgerald isn't inarticulate but he won his seat because his opponent was the ever-embarrassing Carol Mosebly-Braun. To paraphrase Nixon, he doesn't have Carol to kick around anymore and he's at the top of the Democrats list.
Harry Reid (D-NV): Harry Reid is lucky to be Nevada's Senator today. He defeated Nevada's new junior Senator John Ensign (R-NV) by a very tight margin. Reid is the Democrats Whip and picking him off would be a huge victory.
John Edwards (D-NC): Think you're going to be President, John? Well, think again. This seat has changed party hands in every Senatorial election since 1974. If John Edwards goes hunting for the presidency with this seat's record of volatility, he'll find himself without a job in 2 years.
Fritz Hollings (D-SC): This six term Democratic Senator had a close call in 1998. Well, into his 80s, he may follow the lead of Strom Thurmond and step aside. If he doesn't, Hollings faces a determined GOP that's just captured the Governor's mansion.
Tom Daschle (D-SD): The good news for Democrats is that Tim Johnson (D-SD) is returning to the Senate. The bad new is that Rep. John Thune (R-SD) who lost an extraordinarily tight race will probably be back to attempt to evict Tom Daschle from the Senate. A Daschle-Thune race provides the GOP with a dream double play possibility, knocking out the top two Democrats in the Senate in one fell swoop.
There are number of retirements that may occur as well, most of these are among Republicans. Senator John McCain (R-Az) has been suffering health problems in recent years and has already obtained passage of his most sought after Campaign Finance Reform Act, so he's a strong candidate to retire. In prior years in Arizona, it'd be expected that he'd be replaced by a Republican, but after Democrats won the governorship, they have a chance of picking up this seat as well.
Senator Bob Graham (D-FL), well into his 60s could retire or seek the presidency while abandoning his Senate post. In Iowa, Charles Grassley will be over 80 in the 2004 elections. If he runs, he'll win, if he doesn't, it'll be a free-for-all. In Pennsylvania, Arlyn Specter's not getting any younger and if he leaves, this seat could be ripe for a takeover as well.
The Governors
There are two governors in serious dangerous as I see it. Governor Judy Martz (R-MT) has suffered an endless onslaught from Democrats over energy issues as well as her ability to create controversy with miscommunications. Governor Bob Holden (D-MO) was elected by a razor's edge and can expect to be targeted by Republicans. Republicans also have a slight pick-up opportunity in Washington where incumbent Gary Locke (D-Wa) is term-limited out. In 2003, the contests for the seats of term-limited Governors Mike Foster (R-La) and Paul Patton (D-Ky) will be heated for sure.
Governor Jim Douglas (R-VT) will have a tough time governing and winning re-election and who knows what will happen with newly minted Governor Craig Benson (R-NH).