Cherry-Pickings or Apples to Apples? May 17, 2012

Kevin Richert has some sour grapes about GOP press release arguing that the GOP is cherry-picking when it declares turnout up significantly from 2008 to 2012:

On Tuesday, some 144,500 votes were cast in Idaho’s GOP congressional races. And, as the GOP correctly notes in a news release, that is a marked increase from 2008, when 126,573 votes were cast in the congressional races.

But the turnout for GOP congressional races was also about a 9 percent decrease from 2010, when 158,746 votes were case in GOP congressional primaries.

Normally, a comparison between 2008 and 2012 might hold water, since both years are presidential years. But since the Idaho GOP held its first-ever presidential caucus in March, taking the presidential race off the 2012 ballot, there’s an apples-to-oranges element to the comparison.

Sorry, but it is an apples-to-apples comparison. Kevin’s argument makes one bad assumption and misses one key point.

First, the bad assumption: That a significant number of people turned out for Idaho’s Presidential Primary. By the time, Idaho voted last time, the Republican Presidential race had been over for nearly three months. That’s not likely going to be a big draw.

Kevin neglects to note what 2010 had that 2012 didn’t. 2010 didn’t have the Presidential race, but it did have the U.S. Senate seat, and  all the state offices up for election including contested races for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Controller. In addition, the 2010 Idaho U.S. House primary between Vaughn Ward and Raul Labrador. In 2012, the Congressional Races topped the ballot and no primary was that exciting. It all depended on local  elections. Given that, the result was solid.

In addition, regarding the focus of whether turnout was up or down as a measure of the success of the election. The purpose of closed primaries was to stop liberals, Democrats, and people who didn’t share Republican values from voting. In this election, more actual Republicans showed up to vote.

I’d add that when it comes to other things, Richert and the Statesman have no problem with low turnout elections. They’d be perfectly fine with a local option sales tax bill that would allow for elections in odd numbered election years when hardly anyone outside of Boise’s North End shows up to vote. What makes the Statesman mad is that Republicans are now the ones picking their nominees and that means their editorial board has less influence than ever.

Mission accomplished.

Complete Primary Roundup May 16, 2012

We’ll begin with the big races, shine a spotlight in Ada County and talk about a few highlights from around the State:

High Level:

Re-opening the Primary: The party establishment including Butch Otter is eagerly rubbing its hands together at the prospect of being able to reopen Idaho’s primary due to “disappointing turnout” which saw turnout from 25% of voters to 23% (really conclusive numbers, eh?). In an email from Norm Semanko:

During yesterday’s primary, 144,500 votes were cast in the two Republican Congressional races. In 2008, the number was 126,573, according to the Secretary of State’s website. That is an increase of nearly 15% for Republican voters. On the other hand, the total Democrat primary votes in the Congressional races dropped by over one-third from 2008 to 2012.

In essence, the primary turnout was lower on the Democratic side, while Republican turnout was actually higher even with no big top of the ticket race. However, this is numbers and logic. Don’t expect that to be reported in the media, don’t expect it come from Otter and Ysura at the State Convention. Expect an effort to undo years of progress on the closed primary and thanks to Ryan Davidson (more on that later), they may have a shot at doing it.

Who got excluded from the primary? Liberals wanting to sabotage the primary or who know they have no prayer of beating Republicans in the Fall and want to pick as liberal a GOP nominee as possible. Liberal members of the media who don’t want to explain to their friends at the Idaho Press Club that they voted Republicans. Good riddance.

Idaho 1st District: Barring some unforeseen tragedy, Raul Labrador will be the first two term Congressman the District has had since 2006. In 2008, Matt Salisbury got 40% against Bill Sali in the GOP primary while Walt Minnick cruised to the Democratic nomination. In 2012, Raul Labrador beat back his intraparty challenger by a 4:1 margin. At the same time, former NFL Wide Receiver Jimmy Farris struggled in the Democratic Primary, winning by only a 53-47% margin. What made this remarkable was that he was being challenged by Cynthia Clickingbeard, a bipolar former doctor whose license was revoked and who was arrested for assault, and had to face a mental health evaluation to see if she was even capable of understanding the charges against her.  Again, Farris so impressed Democratic voters that he could only get 53% against her.

Raul Labrador is as good as re-elected.

District 2: Mike Simpson was re-nominated in 2010 with 58% of the vote.  In the face of such a humbling turnout, Mike Simpson could reconsider and understand the importance of fealty to the Constitution and to the values of his constituents. He could become a champion of the values of the Republican Party.

Instead, he just decided to fake it, which worked well enough. He won 70% of the vote. Chick Heileson finished with 30% (up from 24% a few years ago), but came nowhere close as he was vastly outspent.

The bottom line lesson of the race is that if anyone is going to beat Mike Simpson, he’ll have to raise a ton of money, be very charismatic, and be LDS. Tough combination and no I know who can fill it.

Simpson is headed for an eighth term easily as he faces Idaho Senator Nicole LeFavour. When I first came to Idaho in 2003, Democrats nominated candidates who wouldn’t antagonize voters. With past candidates like Jim Hansen and Debbie Holmes, that idea has become increasingly passe. With the nomination of a militant leftist who decided to inform religiously conservative legislators by sending them Brokeback Mountain for Christmas, Democrats have abandoned this strategy. Outside of Democratic strongholds like the North End and Blaine County, I would hate to be a Democrat running for anything in the 2nd District. The former slam poets history of rants, tantrums, intolerance  and extremism makes her an inviting target and before this election is over someone’s going to tie a Democratic opponent to the far left positions of “Barack Obama and Nicole LeFavour.”

I just hope Republicans will be judicious about going after her as there’s no need to spike the ball in races that are well in hand.

Ada County:

The Paul Bomb explodes: Romney supporters walked away with the majority of precinct contests won in Ada County. While this doesn’t necessarily mean that they’ll shut supporters of Ron Paul out of slots to the state convention, it does represent a significant reversal of fortunes for Paul supporters and those who want to challenge the party establishment.

If the establishment succeeds in dominating Ada County’s delegation to the State Convention, many of the key victories conservatives have won in recent years will be in peril such as the closed primary and the party platform questionnaire. In addition, Butch Otter will be able to pick the next chairman with little concern as to what conservatives think about it.

If this happens, the fiasco can be laid at the feet of Ryan Davidson who picked an ill-advised fight in his attempt to suspend the rules and overturn the results of the Idaho Caucus and award all the delegates to the third place candidates. Davidson was willing to have “scorched earth.” Well, he certainly got it on Tuesday.

The success of many of the “Paul people” in Idaho came not from the message of Ron Paul, but from people whose commitment to conservative values was not tied to one particular presidential candidate being willing to work in a coalition with Ron Paul folks to restore the Idaho GOP to grassroots control.

What too many Paul supporters have chosen to do is to make involvement in the process primarily about the presidency. In the process, they’re fracturing conservatives and losing the state party.

In the case of this campaign to overturn the Caucus, Republican voters are settled on Mitt Romney as our nominee. We don’t want another four years of Barack Obama. We are concerned about the immediate danger of government-run health care, Obama’s war on family, marriage, decency, and the certain bankruptcy around the corner. In the midst of these concern, Paul people wanted to undermine the Republican nominee in his battle against Barack Obama. The establishment took advantage of this short-sightedness. Ron Paul handed them a loaded gun and the establishment just pulled the trigger.

If conservatives want to see the Republican establishment rule we just need to keep biting and kicking, and at war with each other over presidential candidates. It’s only when we stand together on our common objectives that we’ll get anything done. If Ron Paul supporters in Idaho want to play a significant role in the party in the future, this is a lesson they have to learn.

Moving on to countywide race:

Commissioner: Jim Tibbs’ victory was no surprise. Sharon Ullman’s loss was interesting, mainly because it followed a long line of turnover in the County Commissioner elections. In the last four elections, one County Commissioner has been defeated:

2006: Judy Peavey-Derr (R) lost Republican Primary.
2008: Paul Woods (D) lost re-election
2010: Fred Tilman (R) lost Republican Primary
2012: Sharon Ullman (R) lost Republican Primary.

It could be that voters have some deep underlying dissatisfaction with the way that County Government is working or it could be voters think an infusion of new blood every election is a good thing. Whatever the case, while I offer congratulations to Ed Case and Jim Tibbs, I’d advise them not to get too comfortable if they win in the Fall. With electoral history like this, the phrase, “Uneasy lies the head that wears a crown” is apt.

Legislative Races Highlights:

District 14: Marv Hagedorn’s  star rose with a win in the Senate primary and facing no opposition in the Fall. Hagedorn, along with Senators Russ Fulcher (R-22) and Rep. Cliff Bayer (R) who is a shoo-in to move up to the Senate, may provide the strongest trio of results-oriented conservatives in the State Senate. Any one of three would make an excellent candidate for higher office and if local conservatives had any sense they would consider it the first chance they get.

District 17: Judy Peavey-Derr’s  opponent in the Republican Primary, Thomas Bullock, won 43%. As of the last campaign finance report, he’d spent no money, he had no campaign expenditures or money raised. My wife and I voted for him because Lucas Baumbach said he was pro-life and whoever Thomas Bullock was, he was Judy Peavey-Derr. Not being Judy Peavey-Derr was enough for 43% of the vote. Senator Elliot Werk doesn’t have a whole lot to worry about this Fall.

District 18: The nail-biter of the night came in District 18 with an incredible race between Brad Bolicek and John Hruby. Hruby had the financial advantage with the first financial report showing Hruby out-raising Bolicek 8:1. However, Bolicek managed to pull off the victory through hard work and a record of involvement in local politics plus the endorsement of Idaho Chooses Life. This tough campaign is good preparation for what will be a formidable Fall Campaign against a three term incumbent in Phyllis King (D-18).

District 20: I have to admit some disappointment with Tom LeClaire’s loss. I think he would have made a great state representative. He’s a good guy and would have been great for District 20. What may have hurt him most may have been the Idaho Statesman endorsement. Candidates tout those things when they get them, but I think that in many races, it’s the kiss of death.  It’s a difficult issue to deal with. If I ever run for office and somehow I was endorsed by the Statesman, I would denounce the endorsement as sabotage.

District 21: I was pleased by Steve Harris’ win in Seat A. Seat B was a disappointment because you had too many conservatives running and splitting the vote.

Thoughts Outside of Ada County:

The gang’s (mostly) all here. Redistricting did a number on a few solid conservatives. Representative Steve Thayn found himself in a Senate race in the same district that Rep. Lenore Barrett (formerly of District 35) found herself in a tight House race.

Thayn is one of the most innovative legislators we have, while Barrett is a rock solid conservative fighter. The one time I met the great Helen Chenoweth-Hage was in the Spring of 2004 at a rally for conservative legislative candidates. Her advise to us (should we get elected) was to follow the lead of Lenore Barrett.

I never got the opportunity, but conservative legislators will have that opportunity for a while longer after Barrett won in the new District 8, while Thayn became its new Senator.  Both are such great conservatives that losing either one of them would be a huge loss.

Up in Northern Idaho, conservative freshmen Senator Steve Vick (R-2) and Representative Vito Barberi (R-2) won renomination easily. Vick defeated former Senator Mike Jorgensen (R-2) by a 61-38% margin which should finish his career. Both Vick and Barberi are set for long runs as conservative champions.

Senator Tim Corder was finally ousted when Senator Bert Brackett won the GOP primary by 14 points in the new District 23.  Corder was the last name on the list of RINOs I made in 2010. All others are retired.

The one somewhat sad note was the defeat of Phil Hart (R-2). I do hope there’s an upside for Hart, as getting some of these thorny issues out of the media and public eye may make it easier to resolve. I commend Hart for his service and sacrifice even at a time of great personal difficulty. Those commenters who opined that Hart was somehow getting a big financial from serving in the legislature must have no idea what legislators make. Hart’s decision to serve even while facing all this legal trouble constitute a big time sacrifice of time and money.

Of course, there were other races that went wrong. The more moderate members of the District 1 delegation all beat back their primary challenges handily and challenges to establishment incumbents went nowhere.

For me, the night was mixed with more good happening than bad. That’s politics in the Republican Primary and after the State Convention, it’ll be time to pivot to the Fall and beat the Democrats.

Idaho Conservative Endorsements: District 21 May 14, 2012

There are two legislate primary races in District 21.

In Seat A, for the party establishment, Robert Simison, the chief of staff for Mayor Tammy de Weerd is seeking the seat. Simison is being challenged by Parrish Miller and Steven Harris.

Of the two, my preference is Harris. Harris brings valuable life experience that will enable him to serve as a strong fiscal conservative. Harris is also the reliable pro-life candidate in the race.

In Seat B, there are several inexperienced candidates, most of whom are presenting a solid conservative agenda. In the end, I feel that Lori Shewmaker is the best candidate. In 2010, she was a giant slayer, defeating the plague on District 21 republicans that was Steve Ricks. She has solid conservative values and brings energy and passion to the race. She is the best conservative choice and I would encourage district 21 voters to support her.

Ada County Commissioner 1 and Ada County Sheriff Endorsements

In the Ada County Commissioner, there are some intriguing candidates. On one hand. We have Steve Halverson who has some good principles, Brad Bowen who has some interesting ideas, and Jim Tibbs who has decades of dedicated public service (only four of it thankfully in elected politics.)

Halverson has some good principles, but he’s short on specifics, and really his answers to the Statesman questionnaire sound like he should be running for the legislature.

Bowen intrigues me, but in the end I’m not sold. Jim Tibbs represents an experienced public servant with a record of thoughtful leadership. He has shown himself a faithful leader and would make a wise choice.

In the Sheriff’s race, Curtis Cattau is challenging Sheriff Gary Raney but doesn’t provide a case for replacing Raney. Raney has been doing a good job and I see no reason to replace him, so I’ll vote to renominate.

Ron Paul Supporters Put Conservatives in Uncomfortable Position

The effortsby Ron Paul supporters led by Ryan Davidson to get a 2/3 majority of Precinct Committeeman to vote to overturn the results of the Idaho Caucus puts conservatives in an uncomfortbale position. According to Davidson:

“If two-thirds of the delegates to the Idaho State Convention are Ron Paul supporters, they can vote to suspend the rules, overturn the results of the caucus and award all the national delegates to Ron Paul.”

 

Certainly, the convention CAN go ahead and put aside the votes of 51% of the people. They CAN invalidate countless hours of volunteer work done as well as the time,money, and pains that thousands of Idahoans to go out and participate in a Caucus.They CAN ignore the votes of the Party regulars because Mr. Davidson thinks he knows better, but should they? I would say no.

I should note that I write this as someone who spent the last five years advocating against a Mitt Romney candidacy.  I don’t like his nomination and don’t think he’s a great candidate but the idea that trying to throw the nomination to a guy who got 10.86% of the vote is going to help us defeat Obama in the fall is a pipe dream.

But here is where the dilemma comes infor conservatives. This is being pushed through the Precinct Committee races. These races are about a lot more than the presidential delegate selection process. Through 2008 and 2010, an anti-Establishment push has occurred. It’s allowed the election of Norm Semanko as Chairman. In that role, Semanko has done great things for our party, including beginning the effort to send out questionaires as to where our candidates stand on the Party platform.

Ron Paul lost the caucuses and so therefore, the focus ought to be on electing a new chairman at Twin Falls who will live up to conservative values. Instead, Davidson has handed the establishment a weapon with which they can get back into power at this year’s convention because they can tell voters quite honestly that a vote for Ron Paul backers will lead to an overturning of the state’s caucus results that will allow the third place candidate to get all the delegates.

Conservative voters will face a hard pick. Voting for the Romney slate of Precinct Committeemen will ensure that the integrity of Idaho’s election process will ensure the votes of Idaho Republicans are not disregarded. On the other hand, it will also end up handing control of the state party back to the landed political establishment who cares little for grassroots conservatives and more for its own power.

It may make sense to vote for the Paul people because the odds of them winning 2/3 of delegates are small or it may be that the move to use a technicality to overturn the votes of a majority of Caucus-goers may be a bridge too far. This will be the dilemma faced on Tuesday.

As an eddenum, Caucus critics will no doubt chime in claiming that the caucus allowed this to happen. That’s nonsense. The suspension of the rules Davidson proposes could be used after a primary as well.

District 20 Conservative Endorsements May 11, 2012

District 20 features two clear conservative choices.

In  Seat A, Rep. Joe Palmer (R-20) has two challengers who talk a fairly conservative game including Richard Dees who the Idaho Statesman endorsed out of pique over Palmer sponsoring a bill that took aim at Occupy Wall Street.

Palmer has impressed house leaders and attracted the attention of House Speaker Lawrence Denney who hand-picked him to head up the House Transportation Committee. Palmer is a conservative stalwart with an outstanding 98% conservative voting record.  The wise choice is to vote to renominate and re-elect Joe Palmer.

In Seat B, I see a familiar name, that of Tom LeClaire. In 2004, my first involvement in Idaho politics was a primary campaign against Mr. LeClaire. He beat me by a solid margin over in District 16. Since then, he and his family have moved to Meridian.

Over the course of the past eight years or so, I’ve gotten an opportunity to learn more about Tom and his family. Tom is a true conservative with a long and distinguished background of service to his community and to the Republican Party. His service on such varied areas as the Moscow (Idaho) City Council, the Latah County GOP, the Meridian Parks and Rec. board, and coaching Y-Ball shows someone who is more concerned with serving the communities he’s lived in rather than just seeking power.

As someone who works a regular 40-hour a week job, I feel Tom LeClaire brings a unique understanding of the experience of Idaho workers. While small business owners, retirees, and farmers provided valuable experience, it often feels like those of who work in normal settings as hourly workers are under-represented and Tom can definitely relate well to that experience.

I do appreciate the great service that Patrick Malloy has rendered to Christians and Conservatives in Idaho and  across America in his work with the Alliance Defense Fund, but the candidacy of Tom LeClaire presents District 20 residents with a great candidate who is well-deserving of their support. So I proudly endorse Tom LeClaire for State House in District 20.

Ad Watch: Idaho Embarassed

A good ad from Heileson that makes a cogent against Simpson. Not sure that really happened in 2010. Primary will be interesting. Simpson was held under 60% last time, but with all the out of state PAC money, he has to be favorite. Still, Lugar was a favorite too.

Conservative Endorsement: Idaho District 22 May 10, 2012

If there’s been one theme in this year elections its a battle of conservative talkers v. conservative doers. If one takes a look at (for example), the Senate Race in District 14, there are multiple candidates running for offices, there are a lot of people who talk conservative values,  but they are running against candidates who have lived by and governed according to conservative values. One such leader is Marv Hagedorn running in District 14.

Another is running in District 22: Fred Tilman. Commissioner Tilman developed a record as a solid conservative leader when he stood as our Ada County Commissioner. He was a trustworthy stalwart and a solid Republican who held the line on taxes and advocated for innovative common sense solutions that didn’t expand the size of government.

Tilman’s practical experience of conservative governance makes him a great pick for District 22 voters. Sadly, I think we’ve seen a rash of ill-advised primary campaigns with grassroots conservatives running against candidates who have records as solid conservative leaders. The sooner Idaho Conservatives abandon the “challenge them all and let God sort it out” approach to primary politics, the better off we’ll be.

Conservative Endorsement: House District 15B May 9, 2012

Some districts come down to big ideological questions such as the District 14 Senate race. Others come down to questions of fundamental ability to carry conservative values forward. Such is the case in the District 15 House Primary.

Both Mark Patterson and Curtis Ellis offer conservative stances on the issues, however Patterson offers conservatives a better chance of prevailing in the fall as he has shown himself better able to network and build bridges with local conservatives  and shown himself superior at the business of running a campaign. Patterson ran a strong primary campaign in 2010 against long-time incumbent Max Black. That campaign experience will serve him well at running an effective campaign in the general.

Patterson would be a conservative leader in the State House. His dedication and strong belief in conservative constitutional principles would serve Idaho well.  That taken with the fact that Patterson is the most likely candidate to win in the Fall, the choice in District 15 is clear, Mark Patterson is the best candidate for State House.

Endorsement: House District 16B

The choice in District is between Graham Patterson and Fairy Hitchcock. Both are flawed candidates and neither supports Republican values entirely as their answers to the GOP platform survey reveal.

In 2004, I* was a voter in the 16th District. I faced a tough decision as to whether to vote for Graham Patterson or a more conservative challenger. I ended up voting for Patterson because he was conservative enough and the opponent I was considering had not put on a serious campaign.  Fairy Hitchcock recently  filed a campaign finance report indicating a grand total of $17.91 in contributions and expenditures and hasn’t bothered to fill out the Statesman’s Voter Guide.

So once again, Patterson earns my nod by default. While he’s not as conservative as I am, if Patterson is elected to the State House, he will be more conservative than anyone elected to District 16 in the past decade. He is a good man who has made great efforts on the Republican Party and Republican candidates.  The best choice available is Graham Patterson for State House.