A False Analogy

In pointing out the failure of Kos and others to get on the Gun Control band-wagon of mainstream libs, the National Journal writes:

With bloggers in the lead, Dems have gotten past the gun-control issue and helped reclaim majorities with help from netroots backed pro-gun candidates Sens. Jim Webb (D-VA), John Tester (D-MT), and Reps. Brad Ellsworth (D-IN) and Heath Shuler (D-NC). As Rudy Giuliani faces heat from social conservatives for telling them they need to “get beyond issues” like abortion, one wonders how many elections the GOP has to lose before they embrace a similar evolution.

False analogy. First of all, abortion hasn’t been costing Republicans elections nationally. It’s an issue that if anything has broken in their favor as National Right to Life documents:

*A 2002 Zogby International post-election poll conducted in nine states with hotly contested Senate races found that 41% of the voters said the abortion issue affected their vote. Twenty-three percent voted for the pro-life candidate while 16% voted for the pro-abortion candidate– a 7% advantage for the pro-life candidate.

A 2002 CBS/New York Times poll (November 20-24) found that abortion tied for second place as the biggest vote-getter for Republican U.S. House candidates. Six percent of those voting for Republican U.S. candidates cited abortion as the most important issue in deciding their vote while zero percent of those who voted for Democratics U.S. House candidates cited abortion as the reason.

* A 2000 Wirthlin Worldwide post-election poll found that 42% of the voters said that abortion affected their vote. Twenty-three percent voted for pro-life candidates and 19% voted for pro-abortion candidates– a 4% advantage for pro-life candidates in general.

A Los Angeles Times exit poll found that 14% said abortion was one of the top two issues in voting for president. They voted 58% to 41% for George Bush. The poll showed George W. Bush with a 2.4% advantage on abortion.

In a 2001 Democratic Leadership Council study, A Why Gore Lost and What= s Next for the Democrats,@ pollster Mark Penn found that Gore won on most specific issues. The three exceptions were guns, taxes, and abortion. Penn= s poll found that 7% of the voters cared deeply about abortionC they went 61% to 30% for George Bush, a net gain of 2.2 percentage points for Bush.

With Gun Control, the situation was reversed. Even if polls showed support for Gun Control, the main people who voted on it were pro-gun. Abortion is a Republican winner and those who say otherwise are perhaps a tad delirious.

Hat Tip: Intapundit

Update:

Don Surber argues the Blogometer gets it wrong when they credit blogs with moving Democrats from their anti-gun stance.

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