America Hasn’t Moved Left

Clayton Cramer asks: “Why has America moved left?” writing:

Even if, by some miracle, McCain manages to eke out a victory on Tuesday, it should be apparent from the level of support that Obama enjoys, especially among the young, that America has moved very, very far to the left over the last few years.

Actually, I’m going to disagree with Clayton and suggest that America hasn’t moved left. America is voting left, but where it’s ideological center is hasn’t changed. If you think America’s moved left, witness Walt Minnick’s political cross-dressing act, trying to pretend to be a conservative. It’s the same across the country. Democrats are acting like Republicans should act, ripping big spending, etc.

When you ask people questions about the role of government, about abortion, and about various issues, you don’t see a shift in people’s beliefs.   Why are they voting different? I think the answer goes back to the Right Track-Wrong Track poll question.

As Mike Huckabee has described, the people who decide elections don’t vote within a Right-left ideological grid. They vote for a candidate based on whether he’ll take the country forward or backwards.

Allan Lichtman of American University has developed a fairly ingenuous system for predicting the outcome of the Popular Vote based on what has happened in the previous four years and who the nominee of the parties are. It has predicted the election winners in every cycle since 1984 and retroactively works for every election going back to 1884.  While the popular vote doesn’t predict the electoral vote winner always, Lichtman’s 13 keys suggest that voters look at vertical issues (Whether there’s been a foreign policy failure, how is the economy doing in the short and long term.) rather than strictly idealogical issues. 

Now, Obama’s victory is likely, but not certain. Indeed, should McCain win narrowly in Pennsylvania (if you let politicians call you bitter rednecks/racists who cling to guns and religion and then vote for them you get what you deserve) while capturing most of the remaining toss-up states (Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina, Florida, and Nevada) then he could eek out a narrow win in the electoral college. However, if Obama wins, it doesn’t have anything to do with Americans wanting to move the country left, it has to do with them thinking they’re moving the country forward.

Clayton’s larger point about the need for a more serious effort in the academy by conservatives is right on and regardless of whether Republicans win or lose, it deserves some serious thought.