• George P. Bush, ranked #16 in the right-hand bracket.
• Alan Keyes, #15 in the righ-hand bracket despite no longer being a Republican.
• Bob Corker, #9 in the left-hand bracket. Pigs will fly before Corker is a serious contender for anything.

There are two potential upsets going on right now, both in the right bracket. #9 Meg Whitman is leading #8 John Thune, and #12 Sam Brownback is leading #5 Mitch Daniels.  There are some that are very close to an upset.

In the left bracket, #7-Paul Ryan is only leading #10-John Kyl 54-45%. #8-Jim Demint is barely holding off Corker, 53-46%.

Go and vote.

(Hat Tip: Club for Growth.)

My answer: Because he’s going to be the 45th President of the United States.

A Dallas School gives out bogus Social Security numbers. (Hat Tip: Michelle Malkin.) 

Cities demand bail out. (Hat Tip: Outside the Beltway.)

Peaceful Christians assaulted in San Francisco by Prop. 8 opponents. (Hat Tip: Crunchy Cons.)

Radical pro-Prop 8 activists exact restitution from a restaurant whose owner gave $100 to support Prop. 8. (Hat Tip: Michelle Malkin.)

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The question many of us have been asking, only asked much louder.

Racial slurs fired against African Americans by homosexual Proposition 8 opponents and seeking retribution against supporters of Proposition 8.

Church burnings threatened, elderly attacked. (Hat Tip: Michelle Malkin.)

Something rotten in the state of Minnesota with the recount.  (Hat Tip: Hot Air.)

State employee on administrative leave due to snooping into the records of Joe the Plumber. (Hat Tip: Michelle Malkin.)

Obama’s first president-elect gaffe. (Hat Tip: Michelle Malkin.)

Mandatory national service. Now you see it, now you don’t.

From the one-state recession in Michigan, Obama is getting economic advice from Jennifer Granholm. (Hat Tip: Stop the ACLU.)

Change you can believe in: Obama’s new chief of staff, a former Director at Freddie Mac. (Hat Tip: Newsbusters.)

San Francisco stands up for the JROTC. (Hat Tip: Malkin.)

Words you can’t say about illegal immigration in Arizona. (Hat Tip: Malkin.)

Second Amendment update via Gun Watch.

Watching sex on television increases teen sexual activity. (Hat Tip: Right Mind.)

Hole in One palooza in Illinois.

Conservatives win in New Zealand. (Hat Tip: Don Surber.)

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An excellent YouTube on the election.

Thoughts on the new GOP House leadership.

The despicable McCain staffers smearing Palin story and Palin’s response.  What’s behind it all?

America’s electorate doesn’t lurch left. (Hat Tip: Right Wing News.)

Democrats have a clue about the danger of going to the left, but will they be able to help themselves? (Hat Tip: Outside the Beltway.)

Chris Matthews job: unpaid White House staffer for Obama.

What does President-elect Obama’s new chief of staff believe and where are the fresh faces?

The first letdown under Obama: campaign temporary workers not properly paid. (Hat Tip: Right Wing News.)

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The first thing is to learn from the lessons of the past sixteen years. Under George W. Bush, the left has been unglued ever since Bush won Florida with the Supreme Court foreclosing the option of a “keep recounting until the Democrats win” approach that would later be used in Washington state in 2004.

For eight years, what columnist Michelle Malkin calls Bush Derangement Syndrome has reigned in disturbing detail. Books written about assassinating the President, and a movie made about the same event. Bush has been compared to Hitler. People have had stress, anger, and some of the most educated, intelligent people you can find have written some of the most insane drivel you can imagine.

Liberals have pushed the most inane scandal in American history, the Valerie Plame scandal. They’ve celebrated convictions of political leaders. How bad did it get for the liberals? Two words. Keith Olbermann.

The eight years previous to that, Republicans helped keep Arkansas humming with an anti-Clinton book and a media industry that charged the President with every crime from serial Cocaine use to murder in the first degree. There was the unseemly digging into Clinton’s numerous affairs in Arkansas.

Now, Clinton’s impeachment for perjury and obstruction of justice (let the record show that Clinton was not impeached for sex) was justified and the people who led that effort made a heroic stance. The process of searching for political scandal, hoping for it, and agitating for impeachment and removal long before 1998, however, was unseemly and a distraction. On the bright side, Republicans were not dreaming of Clinton being shot, but rather him being impeached. Bob Tyrell wrote a book that ended with Clinton’s surprising conviction on Whitewater-related charges. Incriminating White House tapes discovered the day before the Senate vote served as Tyrell’s Deus ex machina.

Neither the Bush Derangement Syndrome, nor enthusiastic Clinton-hating helped our country. Nor can it be argued to have helped the parties where those approaches were dominant. Democrats lost the 2002 and 2004 election on Bush derangement. They won in 2006 with Bush’s weak response to Hurricane Katrina (yes, Governor Blanco and Mayor Nagin were far more culpable, but still as President, Bush bore some responsibility) and the Iraq War was mismanaged. Democrats recruited good candidates and ran a campaign on cleaning up Washington (sure, they were lying, but what do you expect?)

Republicans didn’t distribute 40 million copies of the Clinton Chronicles to win the House in 1994. They talked about what the Clinton Administration was doing wrong and provided an alternative to that vision. And in 1998, when House leadership thought Republicans would enjoy a large turnout among the GOP base over the prosecution of Clinton despite the fact that they were spending like drunker sailors, Republicans actually lost seats in Clinton’s 6-year mid-term, something that’s historically unprecedented.

When unethical conduct by politicians that is proven or substantially backed up comes to light, it needs to be examined, and prosecuted appropriately. But a politics that centers on going after your opponents is ideologically bankrupt and fails. Ethical lapses should be dealt with a sense of sorrow, not a sense of glee.

Therefore the path I intend to take, and the path I would urge conservatives to take, is one that, to paraphrase Lincoln, shows “unhingedness towards none.”

• 1. Unless someone has serious proof of a violent Obama felony—such as murder, rape, or armed robbery—that could pass a grand jury, or a past association that casts damaging light on a current policy, Obama’s history beyond his promises in the past campaign is really quite irrelevant. We had a chance to thoroughly discuss Obama’s past during the long campaign. The time to discuss the past is past. The American people have chosen Obama despite his past and nothing from ten or fifteen years ago is going to change voter perceptions.
• 2. By all appearances, Obama has been a faithful husband. I believe that to be the case, and have no intent of rolling in the gutter, hoping for a loose woman with loose lips. I’ll not deal in sexual rumor or innuendo.
• 3. When referring to Obama after inauguration, I’ll call him President Obama. If I’m feeling somewhat sarcastic, I may call him “The One.” I will not call him any of the names that were used for President or the equivalents of things such as “The Smirking Chimp.” Of course, I’d be accused of racism if I did.
• 4. I have no interest in the impeachment, death, or imprisonment of Barack Obama. I believe, were any of these to occur, it would be a tragedy. I wish him the best health (and I further extend that same wish and prayer to every member of the U.S. Supreme Court.) and that he finishes his one term in office.
• 5. I have no ill-will towards those who voted for Senator Obama,. I don’t begrudge those who opposed Senator Obama being respectful and congratulatory. We never won anyone to our side by being jerks.

I reject the path of unhingedness because it’s not the path to the victory. Our society faces serious risks from a dangerous world, from morally corrosive legislation like the Freedom of Choice Act, from economic proposals that will turn our nation into a third world country such as card check, and the dismantling of our retirement system. No one can focus on everything, and we are dealing with critical issues that are far more important than the scandal-based focus of the past 16 years.

Obama called for a lack of political courage by a Congressman campaigning for him. (Hat Tip: Don Surber.)

Former Obama speech writer endorsing McCain receives death threats. (Hat Tip: Dawn Patrol.)

A whistleblower tells the truth about the Democrats unprecedented malfeasance for security in online donations.

2,200 people registered vote in both Florida and Allen County, Indiana. (Hat Tip: Red State.)

Another case of out of state voting Fraud in Ohio. (Hat Tip: Red State.)

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Obama on bankrupting coal. (Hat Tip: Michelle Malkin.)

The race is not tightening according to Mason Dixon. The Obama lead is growing. A few more examples. In Colorado, Mason Dixon’s 10/28-9 Colorado poll gives Obama a 5 point lead, 49-44. In its previous 9/29-10/1 Colorado poll, Mason Dixon had the race tied, 44-44. In Missouri, Mason Dixon has the race unchanged from its poll last week, a poll NBC commissioned, McCain by 1. In Ohio, Mason Dixon had McCain leading by 1 last week and now has McCain by 2.

I find it somewhat odd to argue that Colorado is showing an Obama lead increase when the prior poll was taken a month ago, when a lot has changed in a month, with McCain hitting bottom mid-October. Ohio and Missouri are fair points. Pennsylvania is perhaps more on-point, showing Obama’s lead at 47-43% with 9% undecided. In another post, Big Tent Democrat points out that a poll from September 16-18 showed Obama by 2. Thjat was right at the end of McCain’s post-convention bump and the start of the economic crisis. There is some tightening here unless you believe Mason-Dixon is on drugs.

Iowa Hawk explains how these polls and the magical margin of error works (Hat Tip: Michelle Malkin.)

This is, for all intents and purposes, how political pollsters compute the mysterious “margin of error,” which has everything to do (and only to do) with pure mathematical sampling error. If you look at the formula above and round it just a smidge, you get a simple rule of thumb for the margin of error of a sampled probability:

Margin of Error = 1 / sqrt(n)

So if the sample size is 400, the margin of error is 1/20 = 5%; if the sample size is 625 the margin of error is 1/25 = 4%; if the sample size is 1000, it’s about 3%.

Great, but if your sample is not representative of the population, your margin of error doesn’t matter. So the question ultimately how undecideds unbreak and which polls figured out who would be voting. Everyone work as hard as you can. Win or lose, let’s do it fighting.

No legitimate reason for Joe the Plumber search. (Hat Tip: Don Surber.)

In Ohio: the dead vote.

Has Barack Obama done anything yet?’

Obama plans to lower expectations but only have after he’s won. (Hat Tip: Reformed Chicks Babbling.)

Publishing the addresses and posting pictures of the homes of people with McCain signs.  

Sarah Palin and special needs families.

Do Pro-Life laws make a difference? (Hat Tip: Dawn Patrol.)

Our second Amendment Update via Gun Watch.

The kindness of a stranger.  (Hat Tip: Crunchy Con.)

Music by James Larson via the Podsafe Music Network.

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ZOGBY SATURDAY: Republican John McCain has pulled back within the margin of error… The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday, one day, polling. He is beginning to cut into Obama’s lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all…

It’s one poll, it’s Zogby, it’s not even a complete tracking poll, but given that McCain hasn’t led anything in 1 1/2 months, I’ll take it. Zogby is usually brilliantly right or ridiculously wrong.

Spot on ad. Why do 527s get to have all the fun?

(Hat Tip: Michelle Malkin.)

For those who use Sports-Politics Superstition (Red Skins game winner, and all that) and will get charged up to do something if they think sports superstitions will help, consider this:

Every time the Philadelphia Phillies have won the World Series, Republicans have won the White House. Yes, I know the Phillies only won once (1980) but what a year 1980 was.

In 1980, the Phillies won the World Series.

In 1980, in late October, polls had Republican Ronald Reagan trailing Jimmy Carter. Reagan came back to take the Presidency.

In 2008, the Phillies won the World.

In 2008, in late October, polls have Republican John McCain trailing Barack Obama. McCain—?

Come on Republicans, let’s pull this out because if we do, we have the makings of a really powerful and really irrelevant predictor of Presidential elections.

The final straw came the other week when Samuel Joseph Wurzelbacher (a.k.a Joe the Plumber) asked a question about higher taxes for small businesses. Instead of celebrating his aspirations, they were mocked. He wasn’t “a real plumber,” and “They’re fighting for Joe the Hedge-Fund manager,” and the patronizing, “I’ve got nothing but love for Joe the Plumber.”

Having worked in politics, I know that absolutely none of this is on the level. This back and forth is posturing, a charade, and a political game. These lines are what I refer to as “hooker lines”—a sure thing to get applause and the press to scribble as if they’re reporting meaningful news…

The party I believed in wouldn’t look down on working people under any circumstance. And Joe the Plumber is right. This is the absolutely worst time to raise taxes on anyone: the rich, the middle class, the poor, small businesses and corporations.

Our economy is in the tank for many complicated reasons, especially because people don’t have enough money. So let them keep it. Let businesses keep it so they can create jobs and stay here and weather this storm. And yet, the Democratic ideology remains the same. Our approach to problems—big government solutions paid for by taxing the rich and big and smaller companies—is just as tired and out of date as trickle down economics. How about a novel approach that simply finds a sane way to stop the bleeding?

That’s not exactly the philosophy of a Democrat. Not only has this party belittled working people in this campaign from Joe the Plumber to the bitter comments, it has also been part of tearing down two female candidates…

Governor Palin and I don’t agree on a lot of things, mostly social issues. But I have grown to appreciate the Governor. I was one of those initial skeptics and would laugh at the pictures. Not anymore. When someone takes on a corrupt political machine and a sitting governor, that is not done by someone with a low I.Q. or a moral core made of tissue paper. When someone fights her way to get scholarships and work her way through college even in a jagged line, that shows determination and humility you can’t learn from reading Reinhold Niebuhr. When a mother brings her son with special needs onto the national stage with love, honesty, and pride, that gives hope to families like mine as my older brother lives with a mental disability. And when someone can sit on a stage during the Sarah Palin rap on Saturday Night Live, put her hands in the air and watch someone in a moose costume get shot—that’s a sign of both humor and humanity.

She sees the long term train wreck ahead.

At a West Hollywood home, not only is Palin hanging in effigy, but McCain is in flames.  

Why are we in trouble today?

Government officials who invaded the privacy of Joe the Plumber are identified, one was a $2300 Obama campaign contributor. (Hat Tip: Michelle Malkin.)

It’s not just ACORN. Obama turns in fraudulent voter cards. (Hat Tip: Red State.)

Massachusetts Democratic State Senator arrested on extortion charges. (Hat Tip: Michelle Malkin.)

ACORN under federal investigation.

Judge rules park bench acceptable residence for voting purposes. (Hat Tip: Greta Wire.)

Rep. Tom Cole’s (R-Ok.) unaccouable star chamber abandons conservative members of Congress. (Hat Tip: Michelle Malkin.)

Elizabeth Edwards thinks leaving health care decisions up to the average American is a fatal flaw due due to the Average American’s stupidity.

Obama: global warming alarmist. Social Security pollyanana.

Hugo Chavez wants to jail his chief political opponent. (Hat Tip: Colusses of Rhodey.)

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Pollsters threatened after releasing polls containing bad news about the Obama campaign.

Joe the Plumber’s privacy violated with official government computers. (Hat Tip: Michelle Malkin.)

Church of Obama.

Who’ll test who in a McCain Administration?

The socialist plan to destroy retirement. (Hat Tip: Hot Air.)

The Obama stock market plunge.

The $5 Trillion dollar question. (Hat Tip: Blue Collar Muse.)

Hugo Chavez attacks Sarah Palin while his country suffers energy blackouts. (Hat Tip: Hot Air.)

Obama funded racist education in Chicago. (Hat Tip: Hot Air.)

Soros behind Pro-Obama Catholic group, while the archbishop of Denver calls the idea a Catholic could support Obama absurd. (Hat Tip: Michelle Malkin.)

More information on sleezy Democratic Congressman Tim Mahoney. (Hat Tip: Politico.)

Suppression of Republicans and conservatives in Hollywood.  (Hat Tip: Instapundit.)

The remedy for political evils.

Bringing back the fairness doctrine. (Hat Tip: Newsbusters.)

Trying to scare us into silence.

Teachers pushing homosexuality in California.

Teacher’s Union priority: fighting for gay marriage. (Hat Tip: Education Watch.)

A family attacked for supporting Proposition 8 in California.  (Hat Tip: Michelle Malkin.)

A Latin American movie star hated by homosexual soccer players for supporting Proposition 8.

Are electric cars a viable solution?

Rod Blagojevech’s secret healthcare plan. (Hat Tip: Government Bytes.) 

How to make Medicare go bankrupt faster: force people who don’t want it to take it.

Pork spent on NASCAR.

A Hollywood give away included in bail out. (Hat Tip: Michelle Malkin.)

Our Second Amendment update.

Police officer stops dangerous illegal immigrant.

A hate crime hoax. (Hat Tip: Stop the ACLU.)

Human cloning bill is passed.

Christian persecution in China.

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If Obama wins, we wish him well. But for now, we can only echo the words of the 30-year-old Abraham Lincoln. On December 26, 1839, responding to the confident prediction of one of his political opponents “that every State in the Union will vote for Mr. Van Buren at the next Presidential election” and that Lincoln’s opposition to the Van Buren forces was therefore bound to be in vain, Lincoln responded:

Address that argument to cowards and to knaves; with the free and the brave it will effect nothing. It may be true; if it must, let it…The probability that we may fall in the struggle ought not to deter us from the support of a cause we believe to be just…Let none falter, who thinks he is right, and we may succeed. But if after all, we shall fail, be it so.

The CBS/New York Times poll showing Obama up 13 or the Investor’s Business Daily Poll showing Obama up 1?

I’m reaching a point of poll overload. Yes, there are some of these polls I trust more than others, but the data is all over the place. At this point, I’m thinking that I ought to begin to look at more reliable ways of predicting elections like based on football games.

The Arizona Cardinals are two games above .500, the Chicago Bears are 1 game above 500. Taking the Cardinals 2 and subtracting the Bears 1, we get a 1 point McCain lead. That makes about as much sense as any of the data we got out there…

The NRA lays it on the line. Watch this and if you live in Idaho’s 1st District answer the question of why Walt Minnick, who claims to be pro-Second Amendment, would endorse Obama in January.

Was Biden just using a rhetorical flourish when he suggested a crisis would come on Obama?

Thoughts on the Palin Wardrobe flap.

And our main focus: How can a candidate be post-racial and insist their successor be Black? (Hat Tip: Wizbang Blog.)

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The current “doom and gloom” about John McCain’s chances and the blame game that’s already starting isn’t enough. No, now, we’ve got to begin tearing people apart in anticipation of 2012.

You got Daniel Larson declaring Palin a flop and Rob Dreher cheering him on. You got Daniel Ruwe declaring Huckabee a joke and pumping up Palin and Jindal And on and on, it goes.

Let me go ahead and say this. After this election, if McCain loses, the GOP will be in worst shape than it’s been in any election since 1992, perhaps worse than any election since 1976. How do you recover? Stronger leadership.

Republicans are blessed that we have at least four great leaders in our party, all of whom are or have been Governors: Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Bobby Jindal, Mark Sanford, and perhaps I’d put Haley Barbour in that list too. Any one of these top four people, I’d gladly fight to bring to the White House. I believe they would be a breath of fresh air and needed reforms.

I’m a Huckabee guy, but I’m also pro-Sarah Palin, and I also like Bobby Jindal, and I also like Mark Sanford. I don’t see any need to tear down good people to build somebody else up.

In an era when the GOP is going to be in trouble, the last thing we need to do is to start fragging one another and starting an internal civil war. The Stupid thing about all this is that because you have no clue who’s running in a hypothetical election, there’s no reason to even start this.

I could see reasons why each of the top four names I listed might decide not to run. So, am I going to spend the next 2-3 years trashing someone who I think would be a great president because I think the guy (or gal) I like might be a little bit better? Heck no.

After this election, our focus must be on:

1. Educating the American people.
2. Stopping the liberal agenda.
3. Getting competent conservatives in charge of the GOP.
4. Defeating the Democrats.

Nowhere on my list is this game of destroying people because they might hurt the chance of a candidate I like that may or may not run for President.

Sarah Palin identifies the most fearsome crisis facing the Obama campaign.

Be careful when hoping for change.

Bankers see no end to the bailout.

Noah Webster and the truth of our times.

St. Louis Catholic Bishop lays it on the line.  (Hat Tip: The Corner.)

Opponents of traditional marriage target Mormon supporters of Proposition 8. (Hat Tip: The Corner.)

A Pro-Life pharmacy opens in Virginia. (Hat Tip: Jill Stanek.)

Are you smarter than a Daily Show viewer? (Hat Tip: Newsbusters.)

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Biden warns of danger ahead if Obama’s elected. (Hat Tip: Michelle Malkin.) Biden is the gift that keeps on giving. (Hat Tip: Wizbang Blog.) Left blog reaction: “Did Biden take his extra stupid pill yesterday?”

Biden: Undecided voters are struggling with racism. (Hat Tip: Sister Toldjah.) John Murtha insults his own constituents–again.

A Republican arrested for voter registration fraud.  (Hat Tip: Volokh Conspiracy.)

Ayers: Just some guy in Obama’s neighborhood that he shared an office with for 3 years.

In the World Series, is Obama for the Devil Rays or the Phillies? Yes. (Hat Tip: World Magazine.)

What’s so about spreading the wealth? Ask Zimbabwe. (Hat Tip: Michelle Malkin.)

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Whose tax lien matters more? Joe the Plumber’s or Obama campaign treasurer. 

Whose drug use matters more? Barack Obama’s or Cindy McCain’s?

Did Obama violate Illinois state ethics laws?

I am Joe. (Hat Tip: Instapundit.)

Marcos Moulitsas dreams of crushing conservatives’ spirits with a monster election victory. (Hat Tip: The Corner.)

Whoopi Goldberg goes after unfair attacks on Sarah Palin.

Barack Obama’s America. (Hat Tip: Jill Stanek.) Plus Obama’s doubletalk on abortion. (Hat Tip: Pro-Life Blogs.)

Supporting Obama: What do issues got to do with it? (Hat Tip: Newsbusters.)

Former Clinton supporters turn out for Sarah Palin.  

Bush assassination plot thwarted. (Hat Tip: Confederate Yankee.)

California first graders taken to teacher’s lesbian wedding.

Our Second Amendment update from Gun Watch.

Oil troubles for Hugo Chavez. (Hat Tip: Newsbusters.)

Abortion clinic sued for infanticide.

An assisted suicide tragedy in Great Britain.

Christians persecuted in India.

Music by James Larson and Exit 417 via the Podsafe Music Network.

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And that’s not partisan. There are some Democrats who do this thing well: Bill Clinton was impeccable, Dennis Kucinich to me invoked the image of Kermit the Frog in the flesh, and Blanche Lincoln is pretty good. Compared to Obama, Al Gore did good in 2000.

This is one instance where Obama is in way over his head.

How do you spell voter fraud? M-I-C-K-E-Y M-O-U-S-E and the 15 state strategy  of ACORN. (Hat Tip: Campaign Spot.)

McCain’s ACORN ties. (Hat Tip: Michelle Malkin.)

Attempts at registering out of State students in Virginia backed by the ACLU.  (Hat Tip: Stop the ACLU.)

Obama already in school textbooks. (Hat Tip: Michelle Malkin.)

The story we’re not hearing: The angry left.  (Hat Tip: Instapundit.)

Democratic rage against a McCain/Palin sign in Maryland. (Hat Tip: Malkin.)

Obama supporters commit credit card fraud we can believe in. (Hat Tip: Michelle Malkin.)

Obama’s tax game. (Hat Tip: The Corner.)

A look at McCain’s economic plan.

Think the candidates tax plans are bad? Just take a look at Liberal Blogger Plan #1 and Liberal Blogger Plan #2.

Jesse Jackson promises a change in pro-Israel policy if Obama is elected. (Hat Tip: Doug Ross.)

Homeland Security pork.

Proposition 8 surging. -

Hurricane Ike heroes: Curtis Strother and Ed Emmet

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The Bradley effect campaigns happened betwen 1982-1992 beginning with Tom Bradley’s campaign for Governor and ending with Carol Mosebly-Braun’s Senate campaign in 1992. African Americans ended up finishing far below what pre-election polls projected in a series of races for Governor, Mayor, and U.S. Senator. Will there be a Bradley effect in 2008? There are two ways to look at this.

First, take a look at recent statewide elections involving Black Candidates. In 2006, there were Black Republicans running for the Governorship of Ohio and Pennsylvania, plus the Maryland U.S. Senate race. In Tennessee, there was a Black Democrat running for U.S. Senate.

In Ohio, the final Real Clear Politics Average had Ken Blackwell down 19.4% with 37.3%. He ended up losing by 23, with 37% of the vote. In Pennsylvania, the final RCP average had Lynn Swann at 36%, and losing by 21.8%. He ended up losing by 20, with 40% of the vote. In Tennessee, the final RCP average had Harold Ford, Jr. down by 6 with 44.3%. Ford ended up losing 3 with 48%.

The one case you might make a case for a “Bradley effect” would be in Maryland where the final polls showed Lt. Governor Michael Steele down by 3.7% with 45% of the vote. He ended up losing by 10 with 44% of the vote. The authors of the Wikipedia article point out that the final polls missed the results of the Governor’s race, underestimating Democratic performance by a similar margin.  So, the point here is that some situations where a person might see a “Bradley effect” may just be a case of bad polling.  

So what can we say? In 2 cases, Black candidates beat the pre-election polls, in two, they didn’t. It doesn’t seem to be the case for a broad-based “Bradley effect.” 

What about Obama? If there’s such a thing as a Bradley effect, we’d see it in the Democratic Primaries and there were some states where Bradley seem to be in play:

• In California, Obama was only down an average of 1.2% and ended up losing the state by 9.6%.
• In Arizona, the two polls before the election showed an average Hillary Clinton lead of 3.5, she won by 9.
• In New Hampshire, pre-primary polls showed Obama by 8.3, Clinton won by 2.6, an 11 point swing.
• In Kentucky, poll averages had Obama trailing by 29.0, and he lost by 35.6.
• In West Virginia, he trailed by 35 and lost by 41.3.

It’s also worth nothing that Obama had some reverse Bradleys in the primary where he beat the polls:

• Wisconsin poll averages had him up by 4.3, he won by 17.4.
• South Carolina, he led by 11.6, and won by 28.9.
• Virginia, he led by 17.7, and won by 28.2
• North Carolina, he led by 8 and won by 14.7.
• Oregon, he led by 12 and he won by 17.6.

In Southern states, Obama benefited from higher than predicted Black turnout, but in Oregon or Wisconsin, that wouldn’t seem to be a suffiicent answer. In 10 states, the polls were way off. This may be less indicative of a Bradley or reverse Bradley effect, and may instead suggest the difficulty of polling an election when you have no clue who will show up.

The four races in 2006 suggest no large “Bradley effect.” Certainly, some people voted against these candidates for racial reasons, but they weren’t trying to hide what they thought. There’s only one reason I can think of that this might be different with Obama. In the case of all four candidates in 2006, there was no major case made that not voting for Ken Blackwell, Lynn Swann, Michael Steele, or Harold Ford made you racist. The case has been made with Barack Obama.

Contrary to the opinon of liberals who are pushing Bradley, it would not even require someone being a racist to get them to lie to pollsters. Lying to pollsters is not necessarily prompted by what you feel in your heart, but you fear what the people polling will think of you if you express your opinion. No one wants to be counted as a racist. Thus, the suggestion that many votes against Obama will be based on racism may have the unintended consequence of tainting polls. For example, one need not be a racist to sense that Carol Mosebly-Braun would be a disaster in the U.S. Senate. 

This seems an outside possibility, but if Obama loses, I’m sure it’s a discussion we’ll end up having.

ACORN’s Voter fraud under the Microscope.

Multiple registrations for the same people in New York State. (Hat Tip: Campaign Spot.)

More from Missouri…Connecticutt…Wisconsin…Indiana (including 105% voter registration in Indianapolis.) and Ohio.

The Obama campaign doesn’t think their decision to give half a million dollars to ACORN to help with voter turnout should be an issue nor how Obama helped ACORN create the housing mess by representing ACORN in suing banks that wouldn’t give risky loans.

But is there a difference between voter fraud and voter registration fraud or some other explanation for the 105% figure in Indianapolis?

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Trackposted to Perri Nelson’s Website, Diary of the Mad Pigeon, Rosemary’s Thoughts, , The World According to Carl, The Pink Flamingo, Leaning Straight Up, Democrat=Socialist, Conservative Cat, and Right Voices, thanks to Linkfest Haven Deluxe.

Hat Tip: Dreaming of a City on the Hill.

(Hat Tip: Right Wing News.)

My first 500,000 has to do with Barack Obama’s support for the Freedom of Choice Act.
If Obama gets his way on federal financing of abortions, coupled with the passage of FOCA, which will repeal every common sense abortion restriction in the land, there will be 125,000 more abortions a year. During an Obama Presidency, half a million unborn children will die that would have lived otherwise, if Obama makes it through 1 term. That is a price in the blood of innocent unborn children that I’m not willing to pay. I can accept the loss of money, but I can’t in good conscience consider that many unborn children to be acceptable losses.

Of course, some people may say, “FOCA will never pass. It’s just a liberal pipe dream. Obama will never get the votes.” But that all depends doesn’t it? Based on current polls, it’s possible that Democrats could control 62 seats in the next Senate. And that’s 62 more reasons to redouble our efforts for Senator McCain.

This is a Presidential election year, and turnout at the top of the ticket has a lot to do with turnout down the ticket. If we can’t get people to turn out for John McCain in Colorado, New Hampshire, Minnesota, and North Carolina, they’ll be a whole lot less likely to turn out to vote for Bob Schaffer, John Sununu, Norm Coleman, and Elizabeth Dole for U.S. Senate. Efforts on behalf of the national ticket will help in these down-ballot races.

In the past week or so, I’ve begun to make calls on behalf of the McCain campaign into swing states despite my trepidation about Senator McCain. As I have unlimited long distance, this isn’t a burden other than time. I’ve been placing calls into states that are swing states and in which there’s a close Senate race. The less margin Obama has in the U.S. Senate, the less extremist legislation such as FOCA, his economic package, and his health care plan, he’ll be able to get through the U.S. Senate.

There is one more reason that I’m doing all I can for John McCain and that reason is Governor Sarah Palin (R-AK.) She has roused conservative across the nation and why? She’s a fighter. In a nation full of gutless wonders, Sarah Palin is a warrior, not a wimp.

Do you know why we have so few leaders who will fight for our principles in Washington? Because they can’t count on conservatives to fight for them. And conservatives need to wake-up to the fact that the willingness of people to throw themselves into the media lion’s den is usually directly proportionate to the willingness of grassroots conservatives to stand by them. Understand that a loss for McCain is a loss for Sarah Palin.

If the McCain/Palin tickets loses by a large margin, party elders, who can never blame a loss on the GOP’s decision to nominate a President candidate that did not represent conservative values, will blame this defeat on Sarah Palin.

Getting her before us as a Presidential nominee will be even harder if McCain loses. In American History, only two people who were unsuccessful VP nominees went on to be the nominee for President. If she wants to run for President in 2012, she’ll have to endure the endless campaign, with the preliminary stages starting in 2010, with full bore campaigning lasting from February or March, 2011 to Election Day, 2012. Will she be willing to run and make the sacrifices required over that long period to even have a shot? And would she emerge victorious given the brutal inquisition-like nature of our primaries and the requirement to raises tens of millions of dollars?

I doubt she’d even run and the more the ticket loses by, the less the chance she’d run and be successful. You may disagree, but the 2012 election is not before us. This one is. And we have a chance to, at the very least, cut into Obama’s margin by getting every voter we can to the polls to support Governor Palin for Vice-President. The more voters we turn out, the more likely we are to, at the very least, limit the damage that Obama can do, as well as strengthening Sarah Palin’s political future.

One estimate suggests that Barack Obama’s campaign is placing 2.8 million phone calls a week to voters, while John McCain’s is placing 81,000. I can understand Republicans losing the election, what I can’t accept is Republicans not even trying. If you believe there’s something worth fighting for in this election, then show it now, because time is running out.

This debate wasn’t a game changer and the next one won’t be either.

The real cost of the bail out: $1.8 trillion. (Hat Tip: Club for Growth.)

How to get $700 billion from Congress? Threaten martial law.

Drop the d: His name is Mud. The genesis of a crisis.

The Bail out: What would Dr. Seuss say?

Why William Ayers matters and what he wanted to do? (Hat Tip: The Campaign Spot.)

Palin on Jeremiah Wright. (Hat Tip: Campaign Spot.)

Obama flip flops on the importance of the Keating Five scandal, while the majority of the group supports Obama for President.  (Hat Tip: The Campaign Spot.)

ACORN raided in Las Vegas. (Hat Tip: Michelle Malkin.)

Anti-Obama author apprehended in Kenya.

The Obama campaign’s fake donors. (Hat Tip: Don Surber.)

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Language warning, but this is important. (Hat Tip: Doug Ross.)

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUEQz5dltmI[/youtube]

And then there’s the children’s chorus:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kTBq_ybkBmI[/youtube]

That reminds me I’ve got to make a few more calls for McCain…

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 CNN reports on Obama’s relationship with Bill Ayers and how it goes deeper than Obama has suggested. (Hat Tip: Dirty Harry’s Place.)

And now the award for least inspired headline of the day.

I’ll be live blogging the Palin-Biden debate. However, rather than trying to update this post, you can view my latest debate thoughts on my Twitter, shown above.

UPDATE

As I said on Twitter, Saracuda is back. She dominated this debate, particularly in exceding expectations.

But more than that, she connected with the American people. She showed grace, fire, passion, and she did not let Gwen Ifill push her around. Whatever happens in 2008, she’ll be back.

The Latest Public Policy Polling has Obama up 3. This is after other recent polls have shown a tie, and two others have shown McCain +1. I hate to do this (and I also hated to move Virginia but lamenting the state of the race in two straight paragraphs is lame) but Florida is now a Toss-up.

Simply put, Obama has a clear, functional electoral college majority for the first time since I’ve been posting on the state of the race.

Turning this around depends on everybody, including the candidate, doing their part. I made five calls into Nevada for Senator McCain tonight.

Apparently, according to Parker, Sarah Palin is unqualified to be President because she doesn’t give good interviews in adversarial settings.

Jim Geraghty of National Review compared Kathleen Parker calling for Palin to get off to Hugh Hewitt abandoning Mitt Romney. With respect, Mr. Geraghty, give me a break. Parker wrote on September 19 (“A Time to Worry”) in National Review that she was scared of Sarah Palin and called for McCain to throw Palin off the ticket and replace her with Romney in that same column. Note that this was before the Katie Couric interview. A clueless media is letting Parker double dip, throwing Sarah Palin under the bus, not once, but twice. Her column today was dishonest with her faux regret. Whatever she’d done in this column, she’d already done a week before.

Palin’s record of reform shows that you can be a good governor, but not great in your first interviews on the national stage. Parker’s advice to have Palin step aside or be thrown off the ticket shows you can be a good writer and a lousy tactician.

If McCain throws Palin off the ticket or if she steps aside, he may as well throw himself off. It would serve as a tacit admission not of a problem with Palin, but an indictment of McCain’s own judgment. It would depress the Republican base, even worse than had McCain picked someone such as Tom Ridge or Joe Lieberman.

Sarah Palin faces a challenge in running for the Vice-Presidency. She must wrap herself fully in the views of someone who she has not worked with all of her life. These views don’t always fit, and are not always comfortable. And no, as Governor she doesn’t know every piece of political knowledge that some think is so important. Sarah Palin may not be your first choice as a partner in a game of Trivial Pursuit. But the future of our country is no trivial pursuit.

At this hour, we have a Democratic Congress that is willing to send our country into another Great Depression if they can’t get political cover to do what they believe will save us from it. We have a budget that is out of control. These problems have been created by people who regularly graced Meet the Press and people who are willing to see Americans starve in the street if it leads to their political advantage.

Familiarity with the minutiae of foreign policy and confidence in answering interview questions comes with time. What doesn’t come with time is a dedication to conservative principles, courage, integrity, and willingness to reform government. Sarah Palin is not a Washington insider, and thank God. She is one of us and not one of them.

In time, she will be better in those areas she’s wanting in. But where she does not lack, she is exactly what our nation needs.

The Republican ticket has had a rough past couple of weeks. I’ve found myself regretting that my primary choice wasn’t on the ballot. But, at the end of the day, we have only one party nominee.

I truly believe that, if elected, a McCain-Palin administration will do far differently that Senator Obama on energy independence, spending, and the type of judges that will end up on the court. Over the course of this campaign, we’ll have many opportunities to second guess, to wonder and to have concern.

For my part, I’ve resolved that, rather than wishing for another candidate or another scenario, I’ll stand with and pray for the candidates we have. They need our help, they need our support, and I will make every effort to assist their efforts. The future of our country is at stake, and I know where I stand, even if I won’t earn the attention of CNN.

Meanwhile, we have this:

“The Democrats need to get their story straight. On one hand, it is beyond dispute at this point that Congressional Republicans were never on board. It is equally clear that the Democratic majority won’t act without the ”cover” of a substantial number of Republican votes–that is they demand that this deal not be done, in Chris Dodd’s words, ‘on a three-legged stool.’ So several things follow. First, this is precisely why Hank Paulson and Harry Reid summoned John McCain–to get Republican cover for the Democrats who despite the looming crisis can’t bring themselves to govern (that is, to vote on and pass a bill which they believe is essential). Second, that is why McCain presented but did not endorse the GOP’s wish list of conservative suggestions in the White House meeting. That is how one cajoles and drags along a recalcitrant party–by allowing them to have their say.”

(Hat Tip: Instapundit.)

The Democrats believe if they don’t pass the Paulson plan, it’ll lead to a Great Depression. However, because this is a hugely expensive step that’s unpopular with the American peopole, they won’t excercise the majorities they have to pass the bill, but rather they need “political cover.” If they don’t get it, then who gives a rip about the consequences for Americans back home.

This is the game congressional Democrats are playing with our country’s financial future: financing left wing groups and covering their hide for a proposal American don’t want.

UPDATE

For all the people who say we should make money on this thing, and are selling it on this basis. Isn’t people trying to make money on bad mortgages how we got into this situation in the first place?

Also, here’s a thought. If we’re limiting the Pay of CEOs who wrecklessly spent their companies into the ground, what should we do about congressional pay?

Democrats’ Political Games threaten the future of our country.

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Every presidential campaign has a slogan, some have multiple slogans. Most end up irrelevant or even the source of ridicule.

George W. Bush: “I’m a uniter, not a divider.” Didn’t quite work out how he hoped.

Barack Obama: “Change we can believe in.” I’ve used this phrase several dozen times ironically in the past few weeks when describing traditional sleazy weasel tactics used by this “candidate of change.”

John McCain’s motto of “Country First” garnered a response of “Whatever.” I figured it was a nice safe statement that probably didn’t mean much. For about the last 8 ½ years, I’ve not cared much for Senator McCain and my endorsement earlier this month came because of the Palin pick combined with statements Senator McCain’s statements made gave me comfort that he’d would move the country forward on reducing spending, appointing solid judges, and energy. Still, I questioned what efforts I’d extend for this ticket.

In the past two weeks, America has been besieged by a financial crisis. After patchwork bailouts, the Bush Administration sent Congress its proposal: a $700 bailout to purchase troubled Mortgage Securities. There was no policy for how these securities were to be chosen and at what price, and the Secretary of the Treasury was to have complete discretion in purchasing them with his decisions unreviewable by any court or administrative board. The well-meaning Bush Administration apparently thinks Secretary of Treasury Henry Paulson is a grand fellow. I’m sure he is, but to give him and his successor $700 billion of blank check securities purchasing authority and labeling it a solution left many of us skeptical.

On the other hand, we do face a legitimate crisis in finance that does threaten to send our economy into a black hole. In reaction to the proposed bail out, McCain expressed concern and laid out five priorities that needed to be included in the bill: most importantly oversight, transparency, and some method for taxpayers to recoup tax dollars spent in this effort as happened in the aftermath of the S&L bailout with the Resolution Trust Corporation.

Meanwhile, on Capitol Hill, Congressional Democrats played some of the sickest political games possible. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nv.) Tuesday was warning that without McCain’s support, the bill wouldn’t pass. Apparently, he couldn’t get enough Democrats on board for fear that their Republican opponents would use an unpopular bail out against them in the fall.

Excuse me? Let’s think about this for a moment.
If we don’t need this, why support a $700 billion gift to Wall Street?

If we truly need a bail out, it’s because without one, we face a deep and serious economic crisis that borders on a depression: People out of work, businesses failing, families going hungry. And all the Senate Democrats can think about is the next election? Never has the perversion of the power elite in Washington been so clear.

Someone needed to show leadership. Yesterday, someone did.

Senator McCain suspended his campaign and put Friday’s debate on hold. After meeting with economic advisers, Senator McCain concluded that if a deal is not reached by the time the stock market opens on Monday, a global financial crisis would result. There is plenty of time to reschedule the debates, but time to address this economic crisis is running out.

Immediately, Senator McCain was hit by the Obama campaign and their partisans. Obama suggested that a President needed to multi-task and that McCain had failed to do so. While it is correct that in the course of a normal day a President does a hundred things, a President must also be able to re-arrange his schedule, eliminate all non-essentials, and focus on a sudden crisis. Isn’t Mr. Obama leader of the party that has relentlessly attacked President Bush for being aloof during Hurricane Katrina? Isn’t Senator Obama part of a party that seems to believe that President Bush can’t do his job unless he’s at the White House?

More importantly, these critiques miss the point. The problem in Congress is that this crisis comes six weeks before an election where the minds of many Congressmen, particularly Democratic Congressional leaders, are focused on politics, even while potential economic disaster threatens to put average Americans into economic straights. McCain has set an example by putting politics aside in as strong way as you possibly could.

Detractors will say that McCain’s motives are entirely political. Of course, this is a matter of perspective and liberal partisans will see McCain’s move that way as will the cynics who see every action as political. While we can’t read minds, we can judge actions and we can say that McCain knew what the right thing to do was and did it.

Of course, McCain’s move is not guaranteed to gain him victory. The last Rasmussen poll showed only 25% of Americans supporting the bail out. Many conservatives will not like the deal and some have already indicated that McCain supporting it could cost him big time. McCain may help avoid a depression and then lose the election for it.

Regardless of the political consequences, McCain has shown leadership that suggests he cares more about his country than the next election and for that I’ll do whatever I can to support his campaign.

Joe Biden’s improbable history. (Hat Tip: The Corner.)

Joe Biden makes a statement on coal that contradicts the Obama campaign position.

Obama criticizes Biden on the AIG bail out. (Hat Tip: Michelle Malkin.)

No women were charged for rape kits in Wasilla.

Bill Clinton tells Dems not to attack Palin.

11-year old suspended for anti-Obama T-shirt. (Hat Tip: Michelle Malkin.)

Watch out for voter fraud in Ohio. (Hat Tip: Michelle Malkin.)

House GOP revolts against Cheney on bail out.

McCain and Obama both want changes to the bail out proposal.

A British senior ethics bureaucrat calls for Euthanasia and a “duty to die.” (Hat Tip: Pro-Life Blogs.)

Euthanasia advocates seek to get assisted suicide through court fiat in Montana.

The end is near for the ban on offshore drilling.

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First, in Michigan, the last three polls show Obama leading by 4, 7, and 9 points. While McCain still has a chance, it’s clear the state is leaning towards Obama.

Finally, a new swing state in Indiana. In the last Rasmussen poll, McCain lead by 2, in an Indianapolis Star poll, Obama lead by 3, and the last Rasmussen poll, McCain led by 6. Given the GOP history of the state, some may question its status as a swing state. This seems to come from the fact that McCain is not on board with wasteful corn ethanol subsidies and is for lifting protectionist tariffs that keep more efficient cleaner sugar ethanol out of the country. When Obama talked about people clinging to religion, who knew there were a bunch of people who worshiped corn out there?

This is an incredibly high number of swing states. While it’d be hard to imagine some states voting Republican (Washington, Minnesota) and others voting Democratic (North Carolina), all the states that I’ve identified as swing states have pretty close polls. This suggests two possibilities to me:

1) Swing States begin to break hard for one candidate or the other leading to a relative landslide somewhere in the 300-350 electoral vote territory.

2) We’re going to have to sit a spell to find out the winner. We may not know the winner on election night, we may not know the winner for weeks. I think of the recent Alaska Republican Congressional Primary where results took 20 days to tabulate with absentee votes from out of state. It would have taken longer had Sean Parnell demanded a recount.

Michigan: Obama +7
Pennsylvania: Obama +3
Ohio: McCain +4
Virginia: McCain +2

McCain continues to lead the key swing state of Ohio, and Obama’s lead in Pennsylvania remains pathetic. Michigan is the only state where Obama is really gaining. I still have it as a toss-up as I want to see at least one more poll with an Obama lean before I move it to Lean Obama. Still, after that lousy week, McCain seems to be holding up remarkably well due to the Palin factor and the fact that Obama is a big-time liberal. He should be pulling away, instead, Obama is pulling out. Sadly, this speaks to the weakness of Obama at this point more than the strength of the nominee.

A $700 billion bail out for the troubled financial industry, but will it work?

Mitch McConnell is naive if he thinks the bill won’t be loaded down with pet projects.

Plus Obama’s misleading response to an Independent group’s abortion ad and their response to him.

Did Obama turn down a plush wall-street opportunity? His former colleagues tell all. (Hat Tip: Michelle Malkin.)

Plus, Obama’s defense of horse and buggy industries?

And isn’t Universal Voluntary National Service an oxymoron? (Hat Tip: Obama Watch.)

Plus, hope in Barack Obama’s gun-free Chicago: Kids’ greatest fear: being shot. (Hat Tip: Idaho Values Alliance.)

Why is the media only concerned with the privacy of terrorists whileblaming the victim in the case of Sarah Palin’s e-mail being hacked.  (Hat Tip: Instapundit and Wizbang)

Unhinged liberals get angry because a TV reporter looks like Sarah Palin.

A college investigates a professor who handed out an anti-Palin assignment. (Hat Tip: Right Wing News.)

Democrats threaten the tax exempt status of an Iranian organization in order to get them to disinvite Palin. (Hat Tip: Wizbang.)

Suspected voter fraud by ACORN in North Carolina.  (Hat Tip: Instapundit.)

ACORN goes to school. (Hat Tip: Michelle Malkin.)

1,100 fraudulent voter registration cards show up in New Mexico’s largest county.  (Hat Tip: Malkin.)

A Vermont Attorney General’s Platform: Prosecute President Bush for murder! (Hat Tip: Jules Crittenden.)

While our Congress is in fiscal crisis, Harry Reid works to preserve earmarks. (Hat Tip: Instapundit.)

Why the House energy bill won’t work according to one member of Congress.

Our second Amendment update: Americans using the right to keep and bear arms to defend their property and their lives.

A Florida Democratic Congressman’s son charged with human trafficking.

Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal’s superb leadership through hurricane seasons. (Hat Tip: The Corner.)

While consecreting homosexual bishops the U.S. Episcopal Church defrocks a traditionalist.

Southern Baptist provided vital relief work including half a million meals per day in the aftermath of Hurricane Ike.

Plus, think secularism will make us more rational? Non-Religious folks are more superstitious than Christians according to a new study. (Hat Tip: The Corner.)

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Trackposted to , Rosemary’s Thoughts, third world county, Woman Honor Thyself, Right Truth, The World According to Carl, Shadowscope, The Pink Flamingo, Cao’s Blog, Democrat=Socialist, NN&V, and Stageleft, thanks to Linkfest Haven Deluxe.

How did the economic crisis come about.

Clinton Administration policies that pushed questionable loans were key. (Hat Tip: Hot Air.)

Both President Bush and Senator McCain tried to fix issues surronding Fannie and Freddie, while Senator Obama was one of the top Senators in receiving contributions from Fannie. (Hat Tip: Wizbang!)

McCain goes on offense and takes leadership, meanwhile the burden lies on Treasury and the President, because the Democratic Congress is prepared to go into recess and has no solution. (Hat Tip: Hot Air.)

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