Where’s Obama as Kentucky freezes and residents are forced to cross state lines to get gas. (Hat Tip: Baseball Crank.)

Bi-partisanship: Obama’s definition of.

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Daschle: $146,000 in back taxes and the White House defense: Nobody’s perfect.

The man of Steele shows some spine.

America wants tax cuts. (Hat Tip: Club for Growth.)

Growing opposition to the stimulus package.

Americans want judges who rule based on the Constitution. (Hat Tip: Brody File.)

Obama overturning Mexico City policy: voters do not approve.

Mitch McConnell proposes big government mortgage plan.

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Huckabee states that what’s often needed for big ideas to work is not big government but for big government to get out of the way. He writes of some friends who started a company called Safe Foods who came up with a way to treat food to eliminate “E-coli, salomonella, and other dangerous pathogens.”

While getting strong interest in the idea, government got in the way. Of the approval process, Huckabee wrote, that it was “slower and more complicated than an Oliver Stone movie.”

Huckabee makes a case for a greater role for the nation’s Governors and less for the state’s. His brief treatise on federalism is worthwile. “States are laboratories of ideas and innovation. The reason is simple–states have to make things work  and are doing things from a pragmatic perspective more than a political one…” Huckabee writes that while states, individuals, businesses, and even his own campaign work within the limits of frugality, the federal government doesn’t because it doesn’t have to, thanks to their ability to print unlimited amounts of money.

Huckabee turns to two last “vertical” issues towards the endof the book, making his case for farm subsidies based on the fact that: 1) U.S. Farmers have to compete against highly subsidized Asian farms, 2) U.S. Citizens pay for so much less for their food than other people around the world.  In Japan, 26% of income goes to buy food v. 10% in the United States.

Finally, he turns to energy where he backs an “all of the above” approach. He says that recent Congressional legislation that attempted to require 15% of energy be renewable by 2020, would have been better had it instead required “alternative energy” which would have opened the door to nuclear and clean coal as energy sources.

He also calls for general energy conservation and touts an idea by the Chairman of Duke Energy to engage to reward companies that help their customers reduce their energy usage, by reimbursing them for wattage saved.

Huckabee closes the policy portion of the book by touting Wal-mart’s committments to reducing its carbon footprint.   Writes Huckabee, “I think it’s fair to say, as Wal-mart goes, so goes the nation.” This is not the only praise of Wal-Mart in Huckabee’swriting. He also gave them a big shout out in “From Hope to Higher Ground.”

Huckabee’sepilogue is kind of like one of those movie scenes that leaves the movie open to a sequel, while not necessarily requiring a follow-up like the end to Back to the Future or Iron Man. Right before the Iowa Strawpoll, coming out of a chinese restaurant, Huckabee’s daughter, Sarah plunked a quarter into a machine that dispenses plastic toys. Out came a smiley face ring that she put on the pinky finger of Campaign Manager Chip Saltsman and said, “This is going to be our good luck charm.” Huckabee wrote, “Though I don’t think a pinkyring had anything to do with coming in second in the strawpoll, it surely didn’t hurt.”

Saltsman wore the pinky ring every election night after that until the last night after Huckabee conceded, Saltsman returned the ring to Sarah Huckabee, saying, “Hang on to this. We’re going to need it again”

Writes Huckabee, “I like that thought.”

Huckabee includes two appendices, one with his complete “Veteran’s Bill of Rights” plan as well as a complete rebuttal of the Club for Growth in 3 pages. If he’s smart, the latter will go up on any 2012 webpage if he opts to run.

There were or hardly any mentions of Mitt Romney or other candidates in the 2nd half of the book. In the acknowledgments, Huckabee did refernce Romney in regards to a purchase of their third dog. “We needed another dog like we needed Mitt Romney to spend another $100 million.”  Which to me is innocuous enough.

Overall, my thoughts on the book.

• Huckabee crams a lot of personality and charm into the book. While the book can meander on occasion, it really comes off as conversational and like you’re an old friend that he sat down and told the story.  As I’ve always thought this book was not only for Huckabee supporters, but those who didn’t pay a whole lot of attention to last year’s primary campaign, it worked.
• Huckabee is conservative. As conservative as I am on every issue? No. A conservative with the skills and ability to connect with people and lead? Yes. The Spanish Inquisitioners of the conservative movement will find Huckabee not pure enough on every issue, but I think that on the issues that matter most, Huckabee gets it with the concept of self-government as a top priority.
• Huckabee is right about vertical politics. The only way conservatives will win and survive in the 21st centruy is communicate how they will move cities, counties, and districts upwards, not just to the right or left.
• This was not a screed against Huckabee’s opponents. Any critical discussion of Romney, Thompson was limited. I’d say, all told it took 2% of the book, if that. In one way, Huckabee suggests that Thompson and Romney are almost archtypal. Thompson represents a leadership that while conservative seems capable only of communicating Horizontal movement (from left to right) rather than vertically (down to up) while Romney represents a country club establishment that is out of touch with everyday Americans. Huckabee’s criticism of Romney and Thompson are hardly shocking. You mean Mitt Romney tried to buy the election? You’re kidding me, I thought the $40 million he put into his campaign was just a thank you gift to the staff. Fred Thompson’s campaign was lackluster? Come on, you know that Thompson was as energetic as the Energizer Bunny (when the battery finally ran out.) Some people have insisted that Huckabee has only written the stuff about policy in order to get people to read his honest statements about his opponents. Assuming that his attacks are as horrendous as these folks suggest, wouldn’t that be akin to Jerry Springer telling people his show was about relationships so that he could get them to watch people hitting each other with chairs? If there’s any strategy in Huckabee’s statemnts about his opponents, the statements are the sizzle, the policy discussions (which make up about 60% of the book are the steak.)
• As for Huckabee taking on the compromised leadership of the religious conservative movement, I say, “It’s about time!” It’s not just a Huckabee race, this is something I’ve noticed for years. Some of these folks who were once viewed as lions among social conservatives have shown themselves to be all too tame pussy cats for the GOP and it’s past time for new leadership with a greater prophetic witness.
• I would have liked to have read Huckabee take the anti-Mormon charge head on in the book.  Though, to be fair, he’s addressed it on the record elsewhere, putting it in the book wouldn’t have helped. The book is kind of incomplete without it, but if you haven’t been following the race, you won’t even know it’s missing.

Huckabee argues that Republicans have become economically out of touch. “We had people leading us who knew the country club, but not Sam’s Club.”

Of charges of populism, Huckabee writes, “What I was actually doing was pretty simple: acknowledging there would be a war if people continued to work their rears off for a declining standard of living. I’d rather be a populist than a pompous patrician who had no idea how hard the struggle was for many Americans and how much fear lived in the hearts of folks who wondered if Friday would be the day the boss got a multimillion-dollar buyout and they got the pink slips and they lost their payouts and pensions. These weren’t phony fears and I was shocked that a stage full of people wanting to be president seemed generally clueless about them.”

Huckabee repeats his “Club for Growth=Club for Greed” message. Huckabee explains this came because of The Club’s “willingness to take money from donors and then target candidates’ political agenda, not necessarily letting an honest assessment of the candidate’s record get in their way.” Of course, Huckabee never explains what he means by this, but the blogger Nuke Gingrich did some thorough research tying the CFG attacks to Steve Stephens, an ultra-rich Arkansas businessman who crossed swords with Huckabee. It’d be nice if Huckabee had tried to explain this, but I don’t think he wanted to spend two pages connecting CFG and Steve Stephens and explaining the whole rivalry.

On CEO pay, Huckabee is clear (I believe he makes the statement about three times)  that he doesn’t want the government to control CEO Salaries, but that he wants to see leadership from within the corporate boardroom. One egregious practice Huckabee criticizes is the lack of independence in compensation decisions. He points to a $400 million retirement package received by the Chairman of Exxon Mobile. Huckabee writes, “In ExxonMobil case, the Chairman and CEO served on Chase Manhattan’s board of directors when it awarded Chase’s CEO a generous retirement package. In an enormous conflict of interest, Chase’s CEO was on ExxonMobil’s board and returned the favor when the $400 million package was awarded. We must have truly independent compensation systems to protect shareholders and the general public, who ultimately pay for these exorbitant packages in the form of higher prices.”

Huckabee also calls for pension reform beginning with “reversing legislation that has allowed companies to move assets out of their pension plans to artificially inflate both the company’s perceived performance and its stock price.”

On trade, Huckabee acknowledges that Protectionism is not the answer and that globalization has generally been a blessing for Americans. He argues for some basic actions to help those Americans hurt by the process by a list of solutions that “could be loved only by a real government wonk.” They are: “unifying the Unemployment Insurance Program and the Trade Adjustment Assistance to better aid with wage insurance, retraining, portable health insurance, and relocation assistance; providing block grants to the states to come up with their own flexible and creative programs, since they know best the challenges faced by their workers, businesses, and communities; expanding the current limited deductibility of education and training expenses; providing business tax credits for the increase of costs when they expand their education and training facilities beyond their own workers, such as to high school students fulfilling their personalized learning plans or those in community colleges; expanding efforts to help our businesses under international standards, including lean management and quality assurance techniques; re-establishing a workable Safeguard Mechanism within the World Trade Organization.”

He also says that it’s time for America to take actions against Chinese violations of trade rules. China engages in currency manipulation so that its goods are less expensive. Huckabee calls for using countervailing duties to offset China’s actions and against all other nations that break trade rules that the U.S. follows.

Some people may opt to call Huckabee’s proposal socialism or economic liberalism, but with most Americans, it will sound like common sense to not let companies raid pension funds, or to refuse to let countries get away with unfair trade practices that hurt American companies.

If there’s one criticism of this chapter I’d offer (other than that massive sentence I quoted earlier should have been broken up), it is that Huckabee’s writing about education policy was sparse. Huckabee spent a whole two paragraphs discussing the issue. He laid out a very innovative idea of individualized education programs, but did not explain how he would bring this about, particularly given his explanation in a previous chapter, that the President is not in charge of setting eighth grade curriculum.  I’d like much more information than was laid out in this book.

We are dusting off the cobwebs on the phone bank tool and hooking it up to Huck PAC. We hope to begin calling on Friday.  Stay tuned!!!!!

At the height of the campaign, Huckabee’s volunteer phone bank turned out tens of thousands of calls a day. A similar reaction or one close to it could help in what will be a razor tight runoff. With the Filibuster on the line, I’ll be calling this weekend and I hope many others will too.

Thought of the day: Had Obama run for the Senate saying, “If you elect me to the U.S. Senate, I will serve for two years and then run for President. Your concerns, your issues, and what you believe important will be subjegated to my ambitions. I will reduce you to half a state.”

I can’t say that Arizona has been much better off with John McCain, or New York with Hillary Clinton, but at least they did some work in their Senate career before deciding the people of their states could take a back seat to their ambitions.

Lichtman explains his model this way:

The Keys show that elections are not horse races in which candidates surge ahead or fall behind on the campaign trail, with pollsters keeping score. Rather, a pragmatic American electorate chooses a president according to the performance of the party holding the White House as measured by the consequential events and episodes of a term — economic boom and bust, foreign policy successes and failures, social unrest, scandal, and policy innovation. Nothing that a candidate has said or done during a campaign, when the public discounts everything as political, has changed his prospects at the polls. Debates, advertising, television appearances, news coverage, and campaign strategies — the usual grist for the punditry mills — count for virtually nothing on Election Day.

The Keys include 13 diagnostic questions that are stated as propositions that favor reelection of the incumbent party. When five or fewer of these propositions are false or turned against the party holding the White House, that party wins another term in office. When six or more are false, the challenging party wins…

The verdict of the Keys for 2008 does not depend on the particular candidate nominated by either party. So my advice to Republicans and Democrats alike in the primary elections is to vote for the candidate you believe in for 2008 and forget the misleading pursuit of the false grail of so-called “electability.”

I would add one caveat to what Lichtman suggests and point out that Charisma and Heroism seem to be exception to the, “The candidate doesn’t matter rule.” When the Incumbent Party nominee is Charismatic or a National Hero that is a statement that helps the incumbent party, as well as if the nominee of the Incumbent Party is not a National Hero or Charismatic. As a challenging party needs six keys to topple the administration, if in 2008, Obama has five keys against him, Republicans would do better to nominate a Charismatic candidate like Mike Huckabee or Sarah Palin, or a National like David Petraeus instead of Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich.

One also has to say that campaigns matter in that they define the party and the candidate and whether they can get downticket candidates elected. Also, if a campaign is down a key or two, a flawless strategic campaign might be able to pull a shock and win the electoral college.  

In his initial examination last November, Lichtman gave 7 keys to the Democrats. However, two of those keys appeared to me to flip. The success of the surge counted as a Foreign Policy success and John McCain was a national hero, flipping another key. However, by my count, Democrats picked up two of the unknown keys went to the Democrats, giving Barack Obama, 7 keys, one more than needed to win the popular vote against the incumbent administration. Here’s how I scored it:

What about the 13 keys for 2012? The most immediate thing Republicans can do to help their White House chances for 2012 is to capture a net pick-up of 25 seats and get to at least 203 House Seats. Should Obama be the Democratic nominee in 2012 (as we can fully expect), he will have 2 keys in his favor: Being the incumbent and his charisma.

Other than the GOP’s own candidate for 2012 and the 2010 Mid-terms, whether Obama will obtain enough keys to win re-election is something that will depend entirely on how well (or poorly) the next four years go.

History has not been kind to losing Vice-Presidential candidates. They are often cast aside as failed marketing gimmicks that didn’t pan out. This is what makes a recent Rasmussen Reports poll remarkable. A national unknown two and a half months ago, Palin leads in a Republican Primary Trial heat by a 64-13% margin, and has a 91% favorable rating among Republicans, including a 65% very favorable rating.

The numbers are astounding. Dole in 1996, Bush in 2000, and Giuliani in 2008 enjoyed numbers in the mid-40s, but I’ve never seen anyone poll more than 50%, let alone more than 60% in a pre-primary trial heat. These numbers often came before people actually knew who the candidates were. Palin’s numbers come after a period in which we’ve learned nearly everything there is to know about her.

Now, given the fickleness of public opinion, her support will certainly cool a little bit over the coming years, and she may not even run for President. But at this moment, she’s the most popular Republican in America.

Why?

First, Sarah Palin is the embodiment of grassroots conservatism. She’s a gun owner, a small businesswoman, a mother, and she’s pro-life to the core. As governor, she’s known for strictly adhering to the State’s Constitution even if it’s not to her political advantage. She’s not a partisan in the sense of focusing on scoring political points on the other side, but let there be no doubt, she is a conservative.

Second, though, has a lot to do with the people in power in the Republican Party. From 1994-2006, Republicans enjoyed amazing levels of power across the nation, yet how were conservatives? Many Republicans, once elected, became one of them (the Government) and forgot about us (the People.) Their focus begins to shift from doing the people’s business to pleasing Teacher’s Unions and big industries. The people were forgotten. Conservative principles were forgotten. Big government conservatism existed as means to politicians securing their power.

I’ve often wished that somebody would get these self-seeking Republican politicians out of office. Yet, the efforts have often been met with heartbreak. In Montana, I twice supported Rob Natelson in the Republican Primary for Governor, only to see him lose in the primary both times. Last year, I voted for a conservative running against my pork barreling Congressman who won re-nomination with 80+% of the vote.

Sarah Palin did it. A former small town Mayor took down the Governor of her state, who had also been a U.S. Senator for four terms. She went into office and reduced spending when the state was in surplus. She took the governor’s luxury jet and placed it on Ebay. Sarah Palin not only represents a picture of conservatism, but she did what most conservatives have been dreaming of doing for more than a decade: Throw a bum out.

The Palin juggernaut is ultimately a rebuke to today’s political class. Grassroots conservatives are tired of them because they are greedy, self-serving, and only care about power. They have become government apparatchiks. They do have great experience, which they tout repeatedly. They’re only problem is that it’s all in selling themselves to the highest bidder. Their claims to conservative values are entirely self-serving alliances of convenience.

Whether or not she runs for President in 2012, if the GOP wants victory, it’d better produce more political leaders like Sarah Palin.

By election day, I had given money to both McCain/Palin and the RNC, and made more than 100 calls into battleground states like Minnesota, North Carolina, and New Hampshire. I received and e-mail from the campaign last weekend thanking me and stating that I was one of their top 400 callers.

The big reason is that Governor Palin sold me on the ticket. Her values, her character, and her spirit provided hope for the future of our party. Her tenacity under fire inspired folks across this nation to fight harder for John McCain than they could have ever imagined. For the first time, in a long time, we had a regular American running, rather than a creature of the beltway.  My wife and I have been so excited by her candidacy we travelled 300 miles to hear her speak.

Sarah Palin didn’t ask to be VP, she was chosen because John McCain saw her potential to help the ticket. As former McCain campaign staffers disrespect not only Governor Palin, but  the man who picked her with anonymous and cowardly attacks, it’s vital for conservatives to stand with Governor Palin.

Michelle Malkin has set up a site where you can say thank you for Governor Palin for her good work in this campaign. Malkin will ensure the message gets to Governor Palin, and I would encourage everyone who appreciates the effort she put up to leave an appreciative message at that site.

UPDATE:

For clarification, feel free to leave comments here, but Governor Palin will read the comments that are submitted at the link above, not here unless I’m really fortunate.

The first thing is to learn from the lessons of the past sixteen years. Under George W. Bush, the left has been unglued ever since Bush won Florida with the Supreme Court foreclosing the option of a “keep recounting until the Democrats win” approach that would later be used in Washington state in 2004.

For eight years, what columnist Michelle Malkin calls Bush Derangement Syndrome has reigned in disturbing detail. Books written about assassinating the President, and a movie made about the same event. Bush has been compared to Hitler. People have had stress, anger, and some of the most educated, intelligent people you can find have written some of the most insane drivel you can imagine.

Liberals have pushed the most inane scandal in American history, the Valerie Plame scandal. They’ve celebrated convictions of political leaders. How bad did it get for the liberals? Two words. Keith Olbermann.

The eight years previous to that, Republicans helped keep Arkansas humming with an anti-Clinton book and a media industry that charged the President with every crime from serial Cocaine use to murder in the first degree. There was the unseemly digging into Clinton’s numerous affairs in Arkansas.

Now, Clinton’s impeachment for perjury and obstruction of justice (let the record show that Clinton was not impeached for sex) was justified and the people who led that effort made a heroic stance. The process of searching for political scandal, hoping for it, and agitating for impeachment and removal long before 1998, however, was unseemly and a distraction. On the bright side, Republicans were not dreaming of Clinton being shot, but rather him being impeached. Bob Tyrell wrote a book that ended with Clinton’s surprising conviction on Whitewater-related charges. Incriminating White House tapes discovered the day before the Senate vote served as Tyrell’s Deus ex machina.

Neither the Bush Derangement Syndrome, nor enthusiastic Clinton-hating helped our country. Nor can it be argued to have helped the parties where those approaches were dominant. Democrats lost the 2002 and 2004 election on Bush derangement. They won in 2006 with Bush’s weak response to Hurricane Katrina (yes, Governor Blanco and Mayor Nagin were far more culpable, but still as President, Bush bore some responsibility) and the Iraq War was mismanaged. Democrats recruited good candidates and ran a campaign on cleaning up Washington (sure, they were lying, but what do you expect?)

Republicans didn’t distribute 40 million copies of the Clinton Chronicles to win the House in 1994. They talked about what the Clinton Administration was doing wrong and provided an alternative to that vision. And in 1998, when House leadership thought Republicans would enjoy a large turnout among the GOP base over the prosecution of Clinton despite the fact that they were spending like drunker sailors, Republicans actually lost seats in Clinton’s 6-year mid-term, something that’s historically unprecedented.

When unethical conduct by politicians that is proven or substantially backed up comes to light, it needs to be examined, and prosecuted appropriately. But a politics that centers on going after your opponents is ideologically bankrupt and fails. Ethical lapses should be dealt with a sense of sorrow, not a sense of glee.

Therefore the path I intend to take, and the path I would urge conservatives to take, is one that, to paraphrase Lincoln, shows “unhingedness towards none.”

• 1. Unless someone has serious proof of a violent Obama felony—such as murder, rape, or armed robbery—that could pass a grand jury, or a past association that casts damaging light on a current policy, Obama’s history beyond his promises in the past campaign is really quite irrelevant. We had a chance to thoroughly discuss Obama’s past during the long campaign. The time to discuss the past is past. The American people have chosen Obama despite his past and nothing from ten or fifteen years ago is going to change voter perceptions.
• 2. By all appearances, Obama has been a faithful husband. I believe that to be the case, and have no intent of rolling in the gutter, hoping for a loose woman with loose lips. I’ll not deal in sexual rumor or innuendo.
• 3. When referring to Obama after inauguration, I’ll call him President Obama. If I’m feeling somewhat sarcastic, I may call him “The One.” I will not call him any of the names that were used for President or the equivalents of things such as “The Smirking Chimp.” Of course, I’d be accused of racism if I did.
• 4. I have no interest in the impeachment, death, or imprisonment of Barack Obama. I believe, were any of these to occur, it would be a tragedy. I wish him the best health (and I further extend that same wish and prayer to every member of the U.S. Supreme Court.) and that he finishes his one term in office.
• 5. I have no ill-will towards those who voted for Senator Obama,. I don’t begrudge those who opposed Senator Obama being respectful and congratulatory. We never won anyone to our side by being jerks.

I reject the path of unhingedness because it’s not the path to the victory. Our society faces serious risks from a dangerous world, from morally corrosive legislation like the Freedom of Choice Act, from economic proposals that will turn our nation into a third world country such as card check, and the dismantling of our retirement system. No one can focus on everything, and we are dealing with critical issues that are far more important than the scandal-based focus of the past 16 years.

Republicans must again become a party worthy Americans support again by championing great ideas.

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Were this 2000 or 2004, Senator McCain arguably could have won, but in 2008, what was required of McCain was absolute perfection. He missed the mark, and there are some lessons for Republicans to take away from his loss:

Not every election is about national security: The GOP nominated John McCain because they thought he was going to be strong on prosecuting the War on Terror. The problem? That wasn’t the issue this election revolved around. This was a domestic issues election and during the primary, Senator McCain delivered a classic line indicating that he didn’t know that much about economics. There was no indication this would be a foreign policy election in the Republican Primaries, yet Republicans made it a prime determinant. This was particularly odd as only Ron Paul, among McCain’s primary opponents, was uncommitted to the war on terror.

Military Service Optional: Neither President Clinton nor President-elect Obama served in the military. President Bush only served in the National Guard. Looking at the three most talked about names for 2012: Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, and Mike Huckabee, you see not a day of personal military service. With an all-volunteer Army, the “Did you serve?” question as an accusatory statement is dead and buried.

The Idea Deficit: While McCain talked a lot about the federal deficit, what his campaign suffered from was an idea deficit. McCain, as a candidate, believed that what he offered to the nation was himself: A leader who would bring people together to solve problems. Similar to Bob Dole in 1996, first came the candidate and then came the ideas. McCain’s spending freeze proposal was added in the middle of the financial crisis, his “drill here, drill now” mantra was a departure from his Senate career that occurred because of high gas prices. McCain, throughout the campaign, remained a legislator whose craft was fine tuning legislation to help it get through the Senate. A key example of this was his return to Washington. Rather than offering a radically different alternative to the Bush Administration’s $700 billion bail out, McCain proposed amendments.

This was an election where people saw big problems looming, and they wanted big solutions. McCain instead offered a timid platform. McCain was running like it was 2000. In 2000, nobody really wanted big ideas. They just wanted a President that wouldn’t embarrass them.

The Reality of the Vertical Voter: Conventional wisdom has been, “Politics is not won at the right or the left, but at the center. Therefore, you nominate centrist candidates to appeal to the political center.”  This election blows that theory to kingdom come.

While I know some people who might fit the profile of a centrist ideologue, this election illustrates that people just don’t grope for the candidate closest to the center. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee has stated that most voters are not voting to move the country right or left, but up or down. Liberal Blogger Big Tent Democrat of Talkleft.com has said, “Politics is not a battle for the middle. It is a battle for defining the terms of the political debate. It is a battle to be able to say what is the middle.”

Though, it was said by a Democrat, I would like it tattooed on the face of every pundit who goes about telling us about how the GOP needs to nominate centrists. No, the GOP needs to nominate Conservatives, and define the debate by convincing the American people that our policies will move the country upward.

Cultural Conservatism is Not a Losing Issue: The marriage Amendment in Florida ran 14 points ahead of John McCain and the Marriage Amendment in California ran 15 points ahead. There’s an opportunity for Republicans who will choose leaders who seriously believe in social conservative ideas rather than merely using social conservative ideas as election stunts and wedge issues.

Public Financing=Political Suicide: If Republicans are smart, taxpayers will save more than $40 million under Barack Obama, as no candidate in their right mind will ever take public financing again. The system, as it exists currently, is little more than a provider of welfare checks for mediocre politicians. The huge Republican fundraising disadvantage, while not the only cause of Obama’s victory, was a huge contributing factor.

Campaign Finance Reform=Political Crock: Our Campaign Finance laws are nonsense. Whatever arguments you can make about it being politically corrupt to let someone just walk up to a politician and write a $1 million check, it could not be worse than our current system, provided that there is full disclosure.   

Time to Modernize the GOP: The Republican Party needs to become more savvy in its use of the Internet as an organizing and fundraising tool. Also, in a country where early voting is becoming increasingly popular, its time to give the old 72 Hour Get Out the Vote campaign a makeover. These are new times and despite GOP gains, the Democrats are still way out front in terms of running a 21^st century campaign.                           

You can join me on Talkshoe, by calling 724-444-7444, call ID: 7251 from 5:00-6:30 PM MT or on Blog Talk Radio from 7:00-9:00 at 347-215-9631. I’ll update the board as I make projections.

If McCain wins Pennsylvania, he’ll be the next President. If he wins Virgina, he’ll still have a shot, a much harder one. However, the odds are tough.  Hope you can go and prove me wrong.

Electoral Vote thoughts:

• Pennsylvania and Virginia are key. Should McCain win Pennsylvania, he most likely will win Ohio, Missouri, and Nevada too and win the election in an upset. Should he win Virginia, and hold Ohio, we could be in for a nail-biting night that comes down to a few ballots.
• Late in the game, North Carolina and Florida should break for McCain.  

Popular vote Prediction: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, Others: 2%

U.S. Senate: 56D, 42 R, 2 Others +7R

• Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, and Alaska are gone.
• Barring a last minute comeback, Senator John Sununu (R-NH) is gone.
• Elizabeth Dole’s “godless” attack seems to have caused her popularity to crater. I wouldn’t write off North Carolina, but she probably loses.
• Mail in voting makes Oregon hard to guage, but my best thinking is that Gordon Smith is probably gone.
• Minnesota will not elect Al Franken to the U.S. Senate, giving Norm Coleman six more years.
• Mitch McConnell, Saxby Chambliss, and Roger Wicker should all survive, with Chambliss having the toughest race.

U.S. House Prediction: 256 Democrats, 179 Republicans +20 Democrats

Idaho Predictions:

U.S. Senate: Jim Risch (R), 54%, Larry LaRocco (D), 39%,  Others 7%

U.S. House 1: Bill Sali (R) , 54%, Walt Minnick (D), 46%

U.S. House 2: Mike Simpson (R) 67%, Debbie Holmes (D), 29%, Greg Nemitz (Write-In), 4%

Idaho Senate Races: 29 R, 6 D +1 Republican 

• Christ Troupis will win in District 16.

Idaho House Races:  54R, 16D +3 Republicans

• Julie Ellsworth will defeat Branden Durst.
• Becky Young has a good shot at defeating Phyllis King, but may be hindered by the presence of a Libertarian in the race.
• Elizabeth Allen Hodge may be one of the big surprise winners on election night.

Ada County Commission:

• Look for long nights in both County Commission races, but I expect wins by both Rick Yzaguirre and Sharon Ullman.

Out of State Prediction:

California Proposition 8: Passes 54-46%

• If you’re looking for a “Bradley effect,” expect it in California where being against Same Sex Marriage is incredibly politically incorrect and people have an incentive to hide their views from pollsters. In 2000, when Proposition 22 was approved, only 53% of voters polled in the Field Poll supported and it ended up receiving 61% of the vote.

Even if, by some miracle, McCain manages to eke out a victory on Tuesday, it should be apparent from the level of support that Obama enjoys, especially among the young, that America has moved very, very far to the left over the last few years.

Actually, I’m going to disagree with Clayton and suggest that America hasn’t moved left. America is voting left, but where it’s ideological center is hasn’t changed. If you think America’s moved left, witness Walt Minnick’s political cross-dressing act, trying to pretend to be a conservative. It’s the same across the country. Democrats are acting like Republicans should act, ripping big spending, etc.

When you ask people questions about the role of government, about abortion, and about various issues, you don’t see a shift in people’s beliefs.   Why are they voting different? I think the answer goes back to the Right Track-Wrong Track poll question.

As Mike Huckabee has described, the people who decide elections don’t vote within a Right-left ideological grid. They vote for a candidate based on whether he’ll take the country forward or backwards.

Allan Lichtman of American University has developed a fairly ingenuous system for predicting the outcome of the Popular Vote based on what has happened in the previous four years and who the nominee of the parties are. It has predicted the election winners in every cycle since 1984 and retroactively works for every election going back to 1884.  While the popular vote doesn’t predict the electoral vote winner always, Lichtman’s 13 keys suggest that voters look at vertical issues (Whether there’s been a foreign policy failure, how is the economy doing in the short and long term.) rather than strictly idealogical issues. 

Now, Obama’s victory is likely, but not certain. Indeed, should McCain win narrowly in Pennsylvania (if you let politicians call you bitter rednecks/racists who cling to guns and religion and then vote for them you get what you deserve) while capturing most of the remaining toss-up states (Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina, Florida, and Nevada) then he could eek out a narrow win in the electoral college. However, if Obama wins, it doesn’t have anything to do with Americans wanting to move the country left, it has to do with them thinking they’re moving the country forward.

Clayton’s larger point about the need for a more serious effort in the academy by conservatives is right on and regardless of whether Republicans win or lose, it deserves some serious thought.

I won’t be blogging, but I will take my cell phone which means updates on Twitter.

What do Obama supporters expect from his presidency.

A Florida Obama supporter expects not to have pay for her gas or mortgage.

A Texas man jumps off an overpass and leaves a note telling Barack Obama to take care of his family.

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A McCain supporter electrifies his sign after getting tired of sign thefts.

The invasion of the Joe the Plumber’s privacy is more extensive than first reported. (Hat Tip: Hot Air.)

Obama’s campaign intentionally avoids security checks that could prevent fraudulent donations. (Hat Tip: Hot Air.)

Obama’s tax plan doesn’t add up according to CBS News. (Hat Tip: Instapundit.)

Exit poll of Americans voting in Israel show 46% of Democrats voting for McCain. (Hat Tip: Stop the ACLU.)

Conservative illumanati plan post-election meeting and should the base care? (Hat Tip: Crunchy Cons.)

Getting and not getting Sarah Palin.

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(Hat Tip: Huck PAC.)

How Obama’s tax plan discourages work, savings, and investment, while harming our economy.

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Americans need to save more.  (Hat Tip: Crunchy Cons.)

LaRocco is pressing for details and a complete release of Risch’s military records and is challenging Risch’s veracity for not perfectly remembering every detail of the events that occurred 40 1/2 years ago.

The demand for a release of all military records by Larry LaRocco six days before the election screams, “I am really, really desperate!”

Idaho knows Jim Risch and they know Larry LaRocco. They gave their verdict on the first LaRocco-Risch race in 2006, and I expect the one they give in 2008 to be no different.

I was impressed with Governor Risch the first time I saw him and I was wowed by the way he governed our state for the eight months he was governor. I’ve never been as happy or supportive of my Governor, as I was Governor Risch.

He will do an even better job as a United States Senator. He has a distinguished record of public service. In the 1970s, he took on the tough job of keeping his fellow citizens safe as Ada County Prosecuting Attorney. He served with distinction in the State Senate for many years, and then was elected Lieutenant Governor of our state twice,.

Not only that, but one thing I’ve discovered from following Jim Risch’s career is that while I don’t see eye to eye with him on every issue, on the fundamentals, he gets it. He understands our nation’s energy crisis, he understands the danger of high taxes and over-regulation from the federal level, and yes, he understands that the child in the womb is worthy of protection.

On a campaign on the issues, Larry LaRocco loses. So, thus we’re left with a senate campaign of gimmicks and personal attacks that ought to send LaRocco to the political showers except for the fact that he really is the best Idaho Democrats can come up with.

Jim Risch will bring the experience and character that Idaho needs in the U.S. Senate and will restore honor to our state. I was proud to vote for him and would urge every Idahoan to as well.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qUsKw4HBHWg[/youtube]

ELIZABETH VARGAS: If it doesn’t go your way on Tuesday … 2012?

GOV SARAH PALIN: I’m just … thinkin’ that it’s gonna go our way on Tuesday, November 4. I truly believe that the wisdom of … of the people will be revealed on that day. As they enter that voting booth, they will understand the stark contrast between the two tickets. …

VARGAS: But the point being that you haven’t been so bruised by some of the double standard, the sexism on the campaign trail, to say, “I’ve had it. I’m going back to Alaska.”

PALIN: Absolutely not. I think that, if I were to give up and wave a white flag of surrender against some of the political shots that we’ve taken, that … that would … bring this whole … I’m not doin’ this for naught.

This is being interpreted as Sarah Palin saying, “If John McCain loses, I’m running 2012.” Elizabeth Vargas question was, “Have you been so bruised, you’re going to take your ball, run away, and cry?”

Sarahcuda’s answer: “Heck, no!” Now whether that includes a run for President in 2012, even she doesn’t know now. However, I would point out many governors have been prominent without making a White House bid.

Alan’s analysis wraps current events inside his own preconceived notions of what’s happened. Of course, as Rocky said, “Nothin’s over.” The election results have not been counted and there are signs of a different result at the national level. Sean Oxendine has a fascinating post on widely varying poll numbers. For example, Gallup’s Traditional likely voter tracking has Obama up 2, while Pew Research has Obama up 16. The vote depends on the last few days and who has the right polling numbers.

I’d caution Democrats against overconfidence, even in they do win. (I do this because there’s no way they’ll listen.) Four years ago, after the election, the talk was of a permanent Republican Majority. After 1977, Democrats held 292 House Seats and 61 Senate Seats plus the White House.

By 1981, they’d lost the White House, 48 House Seats, and 15 Senate Seats. 

Regardless of what happens, we’ll keep telling the truth and keep moving forward.

Obama’s 2001 Marxist pro-redistribution comments analyzed.

Leftist Halloween fun: Hanging Palin in effigy  (Hat Tip: Reformed Chicks Babbling.) and Guillotining Bush in effigy. (Hat Tip: Little Green Footballs.)

Ted Stevens is convicted. Good riddance.

Americans need to save more.  (Hat Tip: Crunchy Cons.)

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Americans need to save more.  (Hat Tip: Crunchy Cons.)

Trackposted to Rosemary’s Thoughts, , Faultline USA, The World According to Carl, DragonLady’s World, The Pink Flamingo, Cao’s Blog, Democrat=Socialist, and Right Voices, thanks to Linkfest Haven Deluxe.

It’s like the Soup Nazi. “No, TV interviews for you!” Biden bans another station from interviewing the campaign. (Hat Tip: Michelle Malkin.)

Meanwhile Obama answers the tough questions from Saved by the Bell Alum Mario Lopez. No, I’m not kidding you. (Hat Tip: Stop the ACLU.)

This radio interview is devestating if you actually understand economics. The ultimate question here: How’s the best way to redistribute wealth?

So, let’s recap. As a vice presidential candidate in 2008, Palin is:

• “an object of ridicule”
• “the biggest drag on John McCain”
• “long-term minus”
• “not ready”
• “doesn’t have that much experience”
• “not a serious choice”
• a “shallow” and “cynical” choice
• “the absolute worst strategy”

Yet, the day after the election is over:

• Palin is “the first in line to run for 2012″
• She “certainly has a claim to” run in 2012
• “there are things she’s very good at”
• “It’s Sarah Palin versus Huckabee”
• “she’s the most popular person in the Republican Party right now”
• “she’s a compelling figure”
• “she’s got a lot of fans out there”

Wow! Talk about what a difference a day makes.

According to all these folks, she’s unqualified to be vice president on November 4. But on November 5, if Obama wins, she’s totally qualifed to start her 2012 presidential run.

The only problem? It’s Obama/Biden campaign doing it.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQXcImQfubM[/youtube]

Have polls become a weapon of psychological warfare?

Also how some state polls are skewed. (Hat Tip: The Campaign Spot.)

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Would this display be allowed about Barack Obama? (Hat Tip: The Midnight Sun.)

A McCain volunteer assaulted in New York. (Hat Tip: Newsbusters.)

 The home of a Florida Republican HQ Manager shot up over McCain signs.

Barack Obama claims a righteous wind at his back.  (Hat Tip: Don Surber.)

It’s despicable! Daffy Duck gives money to Obama. (Hat Tip: Michelle Malkin.)

Does Obama even care if illegal contributions are coming into his website?

Will Obama pony up street money?

12 fraudulent votes cancelled. (Hat Tip: Michelle Malkin.)

ACORN worker busted for voter fraud in Pennsylvania. (Hat Tip: Stop the ACLU.)

Maybe calling his constituents racists wasn’t such a hot idea for John Murtha.

The Day pigs flew: Dan Rather calls out liberal media bias.

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Independents like me wanted two things out of a McCain running mate. (1) A capable leader who could step into the top job should something happen to the not-very-young No. 1. (2) Someone who would temper McCain’s recent efforts to woo social conservatives. They got neither in the Alaska governor.

So you’re saying this election could have been won with Tom Ridge? Give me a break. McCain on his own was down 8 to Obama before making the pick. Harrop then engages in some nice revisionist history:

Sure, Palin gave him a bump in the polls right after the Republican convention. She gave a rousing speech, written by a crack speechwriter. But once on her own, she quickly displayed a shocking ignorance of world affairs and a general inability to talk coherently on policy matters. Her habit of dividing America — even individual states — into good and not-as-good sectors comes off as downright weird.

Just look at the RealClearPolitics poll averages dating back to early September. The McCain-Palin numbers started cratering about a week after the convention, which was two weeks before the stock market did.

So Palin is reduced to little more than someone who reads from a teleprompter. I’d contest what Harrop suggests as well  about polling numbers. The ticket had a bump out of the convention that got it to even or slightly ahead. Convention bumps fade, but the ticket was doing pretty well until September 15 when Lehman brothers failed (and it should be noted that the Government takeover of Feddie and Frannie occurred only 3 days after the convention on September 7).

Independents tend to be fiscally conservative, socially liberal and strong on defense.They were McCain’s natural constituency and in mid-September gave him a 13-point margin. That lead has since flipped over to Obama, and Palin is a big reason.

So Independents have an organized political philosophy now? To claim to speak for the Independents is absurd on its face. In my experience, Independents aren’t as obsessed with aboriton as Ms. Harrop, regardless.

Second point, which poll is Harrop talking about? There are multiple polls with multiple breakdowns of Independents. To debate phantom polls seems silly.

And if McCain had taken Harrop’s advice and chosen a pro-choicer like she wanted, McCain would have nowhere near the intensity within his own party, but he could have hoped pro-Choice Independents would have pushed him over the top. Right.

Bottom line is that McCain’s problems in this campaign have had to do with difficulty responding to the financial crisis, not Palin. Given that McCain the Moderate was losing on his own well before Palin, it’s hard to argue she hurt the ticket. I’d also point out that the lead in the phantom poll cited by Ms. Harrop occurred after Palin was nominated.

The latest ad from Campaign McCain. (Hat Tip: Confederate Yankee.)

Kinda like what I said only a lot louder.

In this election year’s Kids Pick the President “Kids’ Vote”, Senator Obama received 51% of the vote (1,167,087), and Senator McCain received 49% (1,129,945).

That Obama only beat McCain in a poll of Nickelodeon Kids by a mere 2% is telling. John Kerry won the Kids Pick the President vote in 2004 by a 14 point margin. True, the turnout in ’04 was far less (about 20% of this year’s) but Obama’s 2-point margin about young people indicates a soft bottom with the Obama campaign.

Nick has been increasingly far left over the years. While in 1988, 1992, 1996, and 2000, Nick kids successfully picked the winner, 2004 was a jump the shark moment for the kids poll.

Given Obama’s charisma, the pro-Obama environment of the media, Nick’s PC bias, and the impressionability of young minds, Obama ought to have won this 60-40% at least. 

If kids are voting 51-49% for Obama, I wouldn’t rest easy if I were in Camp Obama.

The basic decision to shut down Joe the Plumber has signalled an escalation. Obama’s the Democratic nominee and therefore, it’s no surprise, this thing is going the Chicago Way like the scene with Kevin Costner and Sean Connery in “The Untouchables”:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7g0RLyxP13o[/youtube]

The attacks on Sarah Palin were bad enough, but conservatives are ticked off about Joe the Plumber. The attacks on an American citizen who dared to ask a question of a canidate is the straw that broke the camel’s back. Coupled with the unbalanced attacks on Sarah Palin (compared to Obama’s relative skating) and recent cuts at Cindy McCain, this is set out a nasty.

Yes, some Republicans will talk about Wright.

Yes, some Republicans will talk about Obama’s youthful drug use, but mainly to call the media out on its double standard about reporting on Republicans.

Yes, John Kerry will joke about John McCain wearing adult diapers. Though, I would note this seems to be more in the trend of the second grade way than the Chicago Way. As an aside, does Kerry still insist that John McCain is a good friend? These Senate friendships are incredibly shallow or twisted if that’s the case…

An investigation of a liberal group violation Ohio State laws by registering volunteers who are only temporarily in the state.

The funny thing is that it was a college news network that uncovered it. If Obama loses, and Ohio is key, I can imagine Kos saying, “We would have gotten away with it, if it weren’t for those darn kids.”

On the whole John Edwards thing, I did the decent thing and ignored it. However, this one is so darn annoying. This story is a big much adieu about nothing. Neither of the parties allegedly involved are even saying there was an affair. This is similar to the John McCain and the lobbyist stories in March that died because there was no evidence of any affair.

Ace pretty much admits there’ll be no impact on the election even if the story’s true. So, why are is anyone talking about it? Petty gossip seems a pretty lousy reason.

There’s enough legitimate stuff about Obama, that I’m not hoping for a media rumor. This only will distract from the issues with Obama’s policies as well as legitimate questions about his associations.

Regardless of whether it’s the speculation about a McCain affair in March or the ugly and unfounded attacks by the National Enquirer on Sarah Palin, or this thing with Obama, I think that it shows a sad deterioration of the media into being the equals of gossip rags. It also is a reason why many people don’t run for office. Who wants to be falsely accused of having an affair based on rumor and innuendo?

More ACORN voter registration fraud, this time in Pennsylvania.  (Hat Tip: The Campaign Spot.)

Ohio rules new voter registerations must be verified. (Hat Tip: The Campaign Spot.)

ACORN bribing multiple voter registrations.

Despite disagreements, the NRA endorses McCain as Obama comes out for gun registrations, and the role of a foundation Obama chaired in fighting the second Amendment comes to light.  (Hat Tip: Gun Watch.)

A bizarre ballot misprint.

Louis Farrakhan declares Obama the Messiah. (Hat Tip: Reformed Chicks Babbling.)

Young Dutch Socialists on their way to America to campaign for Barack Obama. (Hat Tip: Michelle Malkin.)

Obama claims he assumed Ayers’ rehabilitation. (Hat Tip: Campaign Spot.) Might there have been some clues to Ayers’ radical nature? (Hat Tip: Club for Growth.)

A woman falsely reported to the Secret Service by Obama volunteers. (Hat Tip: Michelle Malkin.)

Sarah Palin calls Obama out on abortion. Obama favors forcing health care plans to cover abortion.

How Gallup finds undecided voters. (Hat Tip: Newsbusters.)

Can state polls be trusted on this race and do they indicate the race is over for McCain?

McCain makes solid proposed change to 401(k)s 

Does McCain finally get it?

When the clock breaks.

Military Construction Pork.

To tell the truth, Congressional debates with lie detectors. (Hat Tip: Club for Growth.)

The use of the second Amendment in defense of lives and property.

A woman prosecuted for an anti-ATF bumper sticker. (Hat Tip: Instapundit.)

A pro-life actor living out his beliefs.  

Choose Life license plates survive legal challenge in Arizona.

McDonald’s boycott succeeds.

Christianity grows in China. (Hat Tip: Political Correctness Watch.)

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The latter message was quite bizarre as the McCain/Palin ticket has several times described actions and policies of Barack Obama as being “dangerous.” So you’re saying that we have nothing to be afraid of should a man with dangerous policies be elected?

There seemed to be a disconnect from the man on stage and the campaign run on his behalf on television, which points out ties to terrorists and dishonesty by Senator Obama.

Quite frankly, there’s quite a bit to be scared of in an Obama Administration where the wrong judgment in office on foreign policy could mean the nuclear destruction of an American city, Obama’s pro-abortion policies could mean 125,000 more abortions a year, and his economic policies could mean government run health care, job losses, and a fundamental alteration of the American economy. Add to that, re-education programs through far left community organizations, the messianic proclamations coming from such figures as Louis Farrakhan, and you’ve got quite a bit to be concerned about.

Certainly, there’s a legitimate concern here about anger as well as McCain becoming too partisan. First of all, he will almost certainly be dealing with a Democratic House and Senate. Life will be hard enough without being seen as a hyper-partisan candidate in the previous campaign.

Anger and fear are like fire. If they are properly directed and channeled, it can be the fuel that drives movements forward. Anti-tax anger helped to lead a cheerful Ronald Reagan to the White House. Reagan addressed the angst of the American people and brought us to “morning in America.” If it is not properly handled, you get Bush Derangement syndrome, or the extreme anti-Clintonism of the 1990s

Rather than trying to channel the fire, McCain tried to put it out, or at the very least showed he didn’t understand it. This is odd because McCain is known for his anger. He had no problem dropping the F-bomb on Senator John Cornyn (R-Tx.) over immigration reform earlier in this Congress, and also was quite willing to call opponents of amnesty, “bigots.”

When you listen closely to Senator McCain’s speeches, you’ll hear his anger directed mostly at “special interests” and “lobbyists.” Rarely is it at Congress itself. The foundational idea behind McCain-Feingold is that in Washington we have “good people stuck in a bad system.”

This contradicts the views of people who think we have scoundrels skulking the halls of Congress who care only about themselves. Certainly, some special interest groups are villains as they push for big subsidies from taxpayers and regulations that are good for them, but not America. However, these special interests never took an oath to defend the Constitution. Congressmen did, and they are violating it. Last week on his show, Mike Huckabee received sustained applause when he called for Congressmen to lose their jobs. You’d never hear such a thing from John McCain.

Whether McCain wins or not, it doesn’t seem possible that he can channel the justified anger of the American people. The most interesting political question for conservatives will be whether anyone can effectively channel that anger, or whether the right will take on the role of the unhinged from the American left.

I’ll be live blogging the McCain-Obama debate. However, rather than trying to update this post, you can view my latest debate thoughts on my Twitter, shown above.

UPDATE

Okay, watched the debate and once again, it was tightly played. I think McCain was far more comfortable and more likely to get physically close to the person he was answering and call them by name.

Obama was more aloof most of the time.  I think it’s easy to get lost in a dizzying back and forth. These debates are not for informed voters, and I’m not sure what exactly they’re supposed to illuminate. I don’t know how the casual voter who is tuning in right now is supposed ot untangle the tangled lines of these two candidates and make any sense of it.

The two latest polls in New Hampshire show Obama up by more than 10 points.

In North Carolina, three of the last five polls show Obama up, 1 shows McCain up, and 1 shows a tie. Given that the one that shows McCain up isn’t very reliable, I’m going to move North Carolina to being a toss-up:

With this, I have Obama holding all the Kerry States for the first time. In other notes:

• Two polls in Minnesota, two different views of the raise. Survey USA has McCain up 1, Star Tribune has Obama up 18. Still leave this as Leans Obama, though I have to figure with McCain’s focus on Minnesota that Survey USA has to be a little closer to what campaign internals are showing.
• Idaho liberal blogger moriekafa writes,

“I know, I know, it aint’t over til’ the fat lady sings, it ain’t over til’ it’s over, and all that, and I could be premature, but I suspect it’s over. The election, that is. At the moment it appears that if the election were held now Obama would win more than 330 electoral votes to McCain’s 165. It is difficult to see how McCain/Palin can make that up between now and November 4th.”

While I’ll disagree that Obama would win 330 electoral votes right now, there’s no question he’s got a lead. However, his lead is ultimately a half mile wide and an inch deep. 29 days is an eternity in American politics and a lot can happen. If McCain takes the remaining toss-up states: Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada and is able to take the lead in Virginia and Colorado, then he wins the Presidency. This is doable and it’s why you can’t call it over.

I have unlimited weekend minutes with my cell phone plan. Right now, though odds are against a McCain victory, I’ll do my part. I’ll be calling into State that are both swing states and states with a competitive Senate race.

That means Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and North Carolina will be states I call into. One of the best ways to help the Senate races is to get as strong a turnout/get out the vote effort at the top of the ticket. So, whether McCain wins or not I’m helping out Bob Schaeffer, Norm Coleman, John Sununu, and Elizabeth Dole.

I encourage everyone whose able to do this. Make as few as five calls a day and enough people doing this can make an impact.

Sign up at JohnMcCain.com

The bail out already failing. (Hat Tip: Daily Paul.)

California seeks a bail out. (Hat Tip: Club for Growth.)

Massachusetts seeks a bail out even after RomneyCare got one. (Hat Tip: CFG.)

Barney Frank’s conflict of interest in the Fannie-Freddie mess. (Hat Tip: Townhall.com.)

Palin wants to fight for Michigan, and calls out Obama on terrorist ties, while McCain diagnoses the campaign’s problems. (Hat Tip: Talk Left.)

Where does Sarah Palin’s accent come from? (Hat Tip: Crunchy Cons.)

Palin takes a hit in her investments.

Comedian loses performance over Palin gang rape joke. (Hat Tip: Michelle Malkin.)

College newspaper writer declares Obama “Personal Jesus” (Hat Tip: The Campaign Spot.)

The Pro-Life Obama fraud gets it wrong, particularly on the Freedom of Choice Act. A Catholic Bishop re-enforces the point. Meanwhile, a high-ranking Vatican official warns that the Democrats are becoming the party of death.

Obama gets his own sattelite TV network.

Something rotten in the state of Ohio. (Hat Tip: Michelle Malkin.)

Plus a criminal union lobbyist confesses.

People people using the second amendment to defend their rights.

A non-related former same sex partner is given custody of two adopted children.

Music by Exit 417 via the Podsafe Music Network.

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Trackposted to Perri Nelson’s Website, The Virtuous Republic, Blog @ MoreWhat.com, Cao’s Blog, Leaning Straight Up, Democrat=Socialist, NN&V, , Faultline USA, third world county, Woman Honor Thyself, McCain Blogs, The World According to Carl, Pirate’s Cove, The Pink Flamingo, CORSARI D’ITALIA, and Right Voices, thanks to Linkfest Haven Deluxe.

Say it ain’t so, Joe, there you go again pointing backwards again. You preferenced your whole comment with the Bush administration. Now doggone it, let’s look ahead and tell Americans what we have to plan to do for them in the future. …

No, in fact, when we talk about the Bush administration, there’s a time, too, when Americans are going to say, “Enough is enough with your ticket,” on constantly looking backwards, and pointing fingers, and doing the blame game. …

But for a ticket that wants to talk about change and looking into the future, there’s just too much finger-pointing backwards to ever make us believe that that’s where you’re going.

Jonah Goldberg:

What struck me the most about the debate – and it probably helped having quintessential Obamaphiles in the room – was how Biden’s “gravitas” is derived almost entirely from the fact that he can lie with absolute passion and conviction. He just plain made stuff up tonight. I read a long list tonight in my debate with Beinart here at Wash U, we can visit the details tomorrow.

Just a few: Flatly asserting that Obama never said he’d meet with Achmenijad; that absolute nonsense about spending more in a month in Iraq than we’ve spent in Afghanistan (“let me say it again,” he said as if he was hammering home a real fact); the bit about McCain voting with Obama on raising taxes; his vote in favor of the war etc.

It’s amazing how the impulse to see Biden as the more qualified and serious guy stems almost entirely from his ability to be a convincing b.s. artist. I’m not saying Palin was always honest or unrehearsed, but when she offers up a catchphrase or a talking point, you can tell. When Biden spews up a warm fog of deceitful gassbaggery the response seems to be “what a great grasp of the issues he has!”

His ability, nay his eagerness, to fake not only the “facts” but his sincerity is so shameless many pundits seem either mesmerized by it or scared to call him on it. I’d call his fakery passive aggressive except it’s actually just aggressive aggressive. Beyond being a tool of trial lawyers, I never saw much similarity between Biden and John Edwards, but tonight I was really struck by how alike the two are. Edwards fakes being an everyman, and Biden does too. But his real fraud is intellectual seriousness. He talks like an intellectually mature person, but that’s all it is – talk.

Adam Graham, David Oatney, and Warner Todd Huston discuss the Palin-Biden debate, what’s wrong with the McCain campaign, attempted election stealing in Ohio, the bail out, and American Carol.

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I’d argue that McCain is hurting himself right now because his approach to the bail out issue is much more like a Senator in the minority party responding to a big issue rather than a President.

The President, when the country is in crisis, is more likely to be the one to make the first proposal to get the ball rolling. (example: The PATRIOT Act after 9/11.) The congress works off the proposal. In some rare cases, they may reject it. They’ll certainly amend it, but on huge issues, the President makes the first move.

What Senator McCain did when he laid out changes he’d like to see is play the part of the master legislator, amending what the President proposed. It’s a move of a seasoned legislator, but it’s not the appropriate action of a President. The problem with this is that: 1) it wasn’t bold, 2) it tied him to the current administration, 3) it cast doubts on him as a reformer.

Now, there have been rumors on some blogs that the bailout II contains special earmarks, which would contradict McCain’s rhetoric on earmarks, but as Ryan Ellis of Americans for Tax Reform points out, there are no true earmarks in the bill, only tax breaks. I’d say special interest tax breaks, but it’s not the same thing as the earmarks McCain has been railing against.

However, what hurts more is this statement on ABC this weekend regarding a continuing :

“You put in the, you put in the good deals, and then you put in the pork, as well…But I may have voted for it if, I probably would have ended up voting for it, but I decry a system where individual members are, are faced with taking all this unacceptable, outrageous stuff that has contributed to the largest growth in spending since the Great Society.”

McCain’s being a pragmatic legislator. The problem? That’s not the kind of President he promised to be when he accepted the nomination:

I’ve fought the big spenders in both parties, who waste your money on things you neither need nor want, and the first big-spending pork-barrel earmark bill that comes across my desk, I will veto it. I will make them famous, and you will know their names. You will know
their names.

So basically, the same bill he probably would have voted for as a Senator, he would veto as President? It represents an incongruity to the casual voter. Heck, it presents an incongruity to me and I’m voting for the guy. And by the way, this statement came after he spent all last week talking about the problem of earmarks, totally missing the economic message.

McCain had the lead in the polls for two weeks after the convention, there was a sense of confidence that he would represent a change with 80% feeling the country was on the wrong track. What’s happened?

When faced with a crisis, McCain did not act decisively in a way that was any different from the Bush Administration. It could be argued that neither did Obama. I would agree. Here’s the thing: Obama doesn’t have to. The overwhelming weight of historical precedent favors a victory by Obama. He could spout nothing but platitudes from now until the election and he’s still favored to win. McCain has less room for errors and the way the bail out was handled was an error that has cast doubt on the whole appeal of his campaign. How do you recover from this? I honestly don’t know.

Of course, it should be said, if he has torpedoed his campaign, he did it with the most honorable of motives and actions. He did his job as a Senator as he understood it.

What the McCain situation points to is the problem with picking seasoned Senators. They’re tied into the legislative process. The job of a Senator is to fine tune ideas, work to reach compromises that can get 60 votes, negotiate, and be incredibly pragmatic.

The job of a President is to lay out a broad vision, bold ideas, and then fight for them in Congress, using the bully pulpit to go to the American people to make your case. McCain’s general policy portfolio suffers from a case of Senatitis with policy proposals that are generally either timid or that few voters care about.

Obama is immune from the effects of Senatitis for two reasons. First, history naturally gives his party an edge and having McCain as an opponent weakens some of the issues that go with being in the Senate. More fundamentally, Obama’s lack of on-the-job experience has helped him. With only about 2 years of fully engaged senate service, Obama hasn’t become grounded in the pragmatic nature of Senate politics, thus allowing him to throw out ideas and concepts that sound nice when you’re talking about them, but are far easier said than done.

Obama is ultimately where he’s at today, because while he’s never been a chief executive, he’s never been a great legislator either. He’s never become part of the Washington, DC sausage factory. John McCain is one of the best workers in the sausage factory.

McCain’s problem? We hate the sausage factory.

How does he turn this around? The McCain campaign has picked up that voters want change.  To put it in legislative parlance, they don’t merely want a technical correction amendment, they want an amendment in the form of a substitute. Voters need to have the  idea that McCain will move the country in the right direction, and there’s going to be a departure from the Bush years.

McCain’s proposals so far aren’t cutting it. He’s wasted good campaign money running multiple ads on stem cell research, an issue that doesn’t move masses of voters, ticks off many pro-lifers, and that he and Obama basically agree on.

Where he needs to go is to focus on drilling and energy, a message that was a winning one for Republicans, that has been put on the back burner. And Senator McCain’s spending freeze proposal could also be sold. He also has got to really speak to the situation of middle class Americans. Rather than speaking to Americans in difficult situations, showing empathy, and instilling confidence in the American people,  McCain has been talking like a Washington insider. If he wants to win, this has got to change.

Stories on the Financial Crisis:

• Congressman Robert Johnson (D-Ga.) felt no pressure to support the bill.  

• What’s the true state of the crisis?

• House limits constituent e-mail to prevent computer crash.

• Alternative proposal from Dave Ramsey.

• And one from the Pittsburgh Tribune.

• McCain calls for the President to act without congress.

• SEC Clarification on Mark to Market may help crisis.

In other news:

• Joe Biden getting cocky about Thursday Night’s debate. (Hat Tip: Michelle Malkin.)

• Palin fuels campaign excitement in Southwest Ohio.

• Catholic Pro-Life group prays for the conversion of abortionists.

Click here to listen, click here to download.

Trackposted to Blog @ MoreWhat.com, Rosemary’s Thoughts, third world county, The World According to Carl, Shadowscope, The Pink Flamingo, Wolf Pangloss, and Democrat=Socialist, thanks to Linkfest Haven Deluxe.