Could Fred Thompson Be Like Alan Keyes?

Fred Thompson won last night’s debate by almost unanimous consensus. What exactly does winning a debate a mean? We political junkies seem to overstate its importance. For example, according to post-debate polls, Alan Keyes won every debate including the pre-South Carolina debate, but didn’t get much to show at the polls.

There are two ways Thompson could end up like Keyes. First, despite winning the debate, Keyes had a sub-par performance. The reason? Folks were scared to death of a John McCain victory. So many folks who would be tempted to pull the lever for Keyes, instead voted for Bush. If you look at McCain’s rise in South Carolina’s polls, it occurs at the same time, Rudy is dropping like a rock. Indeed, in the latest Rasmussen poll, Rudy was down 3, McCain up 4. Moderate-to-Liberal Republicans are rallying around McCain. While many bloggers and conservative media people are suffering a case of a amnesia on McCain’s liberal record, if voters believe it’s a choice between McCain and Huckabee, and that one has to be stopped, this can hurt Fred once that decision is made.

Secondly, he could end up like Keyes in that in the South Carolina Debate in 2000, Keyes went hard after McCain. He delivered some devestating blows, including mentioning McCain’s campaign provided alcohol to underaged staffers after McCain mentioned young peoples’ excitement with his campaign. Bush and McCain got into some tiffs, but the devestating blows came from Keyes.

This time around, Thompson delivered body blows to Huckabee, while McCain sat around, smiled, and looked Presidential, while Fred Thompson’s only reference to McCain was at best a glancing blow.

Fundamentally, we could be in for a surprise, but I can’t help but compare the past to the Present and wonder if we’re seeing a re-run with different players.