Counting The Votes on Alito

Well, as the floor debates goes forward on the Alito Nomination, things are looking good: 54 Yeas, 31 Nays, 15 votes out there. Thanks to California Yankee for keeping tabs on the vote count.

So far, no Republican has broken ranks to oppose Alito and Senators Byrd, Johnson, and Nelson (D-Ne.) have broken ranks to vote for the nomination. The Democrats are taking this calmly, just listen to this one left wing blogger:

tim johnson (d-ne), robert byrd (d-wv) and ben nelson (d-ne) are all dead to me for voting for the nomination of samuel alito.

Wow! I just stepped into a mob movie.

Anyway, seriously, California Yankee has 15 undecied votes: 4 Republicans and 11 Democrats:

Republicans
Olympia Snowe*
Susan Collins
Lincoln Chaffee*
Ted Stevens

Democrats
Evan Bayh
Maria Cantwell*
Kent Conrad*
Mark Dayton*
Byron Dorgan
Mary Landrieu
Frank Lautenberg
Robert Menendez*
Jay Rockefeller
Paul Sarbanes*
Mark Pryor

So, lets count votes.

Among the Republicans, I strongly doubt that Stevens will vote Nay, and I’m almost certain he’s not going to vote for a filibuster. I’ll put him comfortably in the “Yes” column. When the leadership needs something, Stevens is generally reliable to come up for it. Even voted for the Balanced Budget Amendment, saying it was a bad idea whose time is come.

Snowe and Collins are harder to peg down. I could see them opposing this because of being from Maine. Snowe, however is up for re-election this year. In the end, I think they’ll both vote yes, though I’m not 100% on that, more like 60% sure. I’m close to 100% certain Olympia Snowe won’t back a Filibuster of Alito. In signing up with John Kerry for a Fillibuster, she could very well get Conservatives ticked off enough to vote Democrat or Third Party and throw her election into doubt. I also think if Snowe votes for Cloture, Collins will go along with her, because she’s slightly to the right of Snowe.

As for Chaffee, The Fix explains the precarious position in which Chaffee finds himself:

With the confirmation vote on Samuel A. Alito Jr. nearing, Rhode Island Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R) faces a Hobson’s choice that could dramatically affect his reelection campaign this November.

GOP Sen. Chafee is being challenged on the left and the right. (AP Photo)Chafee remains the most high-profile undecided senator on Alito, and regardless of which side he eventually chooses, he can expect to be bashed for it.

Chafee faces a primary challenge from Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey (R). Should he get through that race, he will face off against either former state Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse (D) or Secretary of State Matt Brown (D) in a state that went for the Democratic presidential candidate by 20 points in 2004.

A Chafee vote for Alito will make for considerable fodder for either Brown or Whitehouse. But a vote against Alito could give Laffey the GOP nomination.

Now, the obvious political decision would be for Chaffee to vote Present on Alito and Oppose the Filibuster. However, the Chaffee’s tend to really be just New England Liberals, donkeys who think they’re elephants. I could see Chaffee voting “Nay” and helping John Kerry filibuster. He’ll be lionized by the left and booted by Laffey in the primary.

Minimal Prediction from Undecided Republicans: 1 Yea on Confirmation, 3 Yeas on Cloture
Actual Prediction: 3 Yeas on Confirmation, 3 Yeas for Cloture

Minimally: 55 Yea Votes on Confirmation, 57 Yea Votes on Cloture
Actual Prediction: 57 Yea on Confirmation, 57 Yea on Cloture

So, as we move to the Democrats, you just need 3 of the 10 to vote for Cloture:

Lets start with the obvious suspects. Dayton and Sarbanes both voted against John Roberts, so they’ll vote against Alito. Sarbanes is one “undecided” Senator I’m 100% sure I’m about. Dayton, there’s a little doubt because Minnesota was so close in the President. I think he’ll vote for Cloture, but against the nomination. Cantwell also voted against Roberts, so I expect a Nay Vote on Alito, but with she’ll feel free to oppose Cloture on a first vote, but if it went further than one vote, she’d be forced to reconsider if there was backlash.

Menendez and Lautenberg I expect to put home state loyalties aside and vote Nay on Alito. Menendez isn’t scared of being seen as extremeists as Republicans haven’t won a Senate race in New Jersey since 1972, so I expect both to be on board for a Filibuster.

Evan Bayh has to appeal to the left wing for ’08, so I expect him to vote no on Alito but for Cloture.

Kent Conrad, facing re-election in North Dakota HAS to vote Yea. I think Byron Dorgan could probably get away with voting Nay, but will also vote Yea.

I think with Byrd facing re-election, Rockefeller will probably vote Yea so that Byrd’s people can take credit for not only Byrd’s vote but Rockefeller’s.

As for Landrieu, I found out Courtesy of Howard Empowered People that Landrieu is solidly against a filibuster. I think she’ll probably vote Yea as well.

In his first term, I feel Mark Pryor is going to vote Yea.

I also would expect Gang of 14 members Ken Salazar and Joe Lieberman to join the other gang of 14ers (Johnson, Nelson (NE), Pryor, Byrd, and Landrieu) in voting for Cloture, even as they vote “Nay” on the nomination. The reason for this being is that if Salazar and Liberman vote Nay, the Gang of 14 is dead, if two members vote for a filibuster of a nominee that 12 of 14 don’t consider an “extreme circumstance.” Why compromise a powerful working relationship for John Kerry’s publicity stunt.

So with the Democrats, Minimum we’re looking at: 3 Yeas, 8 Votes for Cloture
Actual Prediction: 5 Yeas, 9 Votes for Cloture

Minimum Prediction: 57 Yeas, 43 Nays on Confirmation, 66 Yeas, 34 Nays on Cloture
Actual Prediction: 62 Yeas, 38 Nays on Confirmation, 67 Yeas, 33 Nays on Cloture.

Samuel Alito