The Likely Defeat of Larry Grant

There are folks who follow Congressional Races for a living. Often, they’re wrong about the exact result of a race. Rarely, however, will a good analyst miss a tight race and declare it non-competitive.

So, it was with great interest that I read not only what was in the latest Evans-Novak Political Report, but what wasn’t. While they list countless competitive seats held by Republicans, Idaho’s 1st District race between State Rep. Bill Sali (R) and lawyer Larry Grant doesn’t show up.

The Washington Post doesn’t list Idaho’s 1st as a key race.

Charlie Cook has the race as likely Republican.

Professor Larry Sabato lists the 40 most contested races in the country and Idaho’s 1st is on there. It doesn’t make Stuart Rothenberg’s list of in-play seats. Sean at My Election Analysis (quite newer to this racket than some of the others but fairly adept) lists the district as “Likely Republican.”

Congressional Quarterly rates the race as “Safe Republican” though maybe if Grant loses by a good enough margin, he’ll have a shot at a comeback. Of course our friends on the left might say, “Well, they’re not from Idaho. Here on the ground, we see what they don’t.”

If you’re a political analyst and you can’t figure out what’s going on in Idaho’s 1st, or Colorado’s 7th, or any other district for that matter, you’re not going to be an analyst for long. However, maybe a local expert would help matters. Former Boise State University Professor Jim Weatherby might know a little bit about Idaho polics. CQ asked him about the Sali-Grant race and here’s what he said:

“Grant needs to learn to appear more parochial, distance himself from national Democrats and convince people he’ll work for their interests,” said Jim Weatherby, an Idaho political analyst and former Boise State University political science professor. “There’s a significant independent-minded voter bloc to work with in Idaho, but Grant isn’t out there relating to voters like he should.”

Randy Stapilus of the Ridenbaugh Press is quoted as well:

“In 1994 I remember the Democrats just being overjoyed, they just couldn’t believe their luck with [Chenoweth], saying she was too extreme and out of step with most Idahoans. The Democrats figured they were off the hook” says Randy Stapilus, an author and non-partisan blogger who writes about Idaho politics. “And we all know how that ended. I can see the same emotions now when they talk about Sali.”

Given that Stapilus has covered Idaho Politics for 30 years, he may know more than Idaho’s league of bloggers.

So we took a look at results from 7 different national sources and what do we learn? Five of them don’t even think of Idaho 1st and competitive in one sentence. The other two put this race on the periphery of concern, thinking the Grant campaign may have a chance, but that chance is an outside shot. They think this is not a race to watch that closely.

It doesn’t mean people should be complacent. I certainly won’t be. The liberal media is trying to make it race because of a general dislike for Sali, Conservatives, and Christians.

Pre-Written Response to the Left

Yes, I know them well after all these months. So here’s the big questions that will be asked:

Well, why did Dick Cheney come to Boise? What about Dennis Hastert’s trip to Post Falls? Why did Republicans raise funds for Sali in Washington for Keep Our Majority?

I’d suggest that the latter had more to do with connections on the part of the Sali campaign than anything else. A lot of money was spent on the Primary and those funds needed to be replenished. The idea embraced by Idaho liberals is that if you have the support of the people, you don’t need money. Candidates who face opponents are always going to raise money and if you happen to luck out and get a high profile star to appear for you, so much the better.

What the Grant people forget is that Cheney didn’t come out West for Sali alone, but for Conrad Burns. He’d flown all the way to Montana and there was simply no reason not to make an extra stop in Boise for a good Republican running in an open seat. You generally don’t want to take a flight, campaign one place and head back east.

What about Dennis Hastert? August 21, he was in Puyallup camapaigning for Dave Reichert, August 23rd, he was to be in Montana campaigning for Rep. Dennis Rehberg who is on no one’s endangered list. What else was he going to do on August 22nd? Again, a good Republican candidate and a chance to build connections with a future colleague presented themselves in Post Falls. As Speaker of the House, you don’t just campaign with the at-risk incumbents. Speaker Hastert depends on the Republican membership for his position and if you’re not out in as many districts as possible, people will start to look elsewhere for leadership. Hastert was asked about the Democrats’ assertion that this seat was in danger and said, “This is not a seat that I would say is in vital jeopardy.”

And top national political analysts would agree with you, Mr. Speaker. ‘

Linked by Club for Growth. Thanks!

Now for me to wait for Idaho libs to explode at the combination of Club for Growth and Adam Graham.

Bill Sali, Larry Grant

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