Electoral Map Updates

It’s time to update my electoral map from last month. I had the battleground state of Missouri as leaning towards McCain. I’ve got to move that to “Toss-Up.” The latest two polls show McCain up 3 and Obama up 1.  Both polls use good samples of likely voters.  At this point, I can’t say anyone’s got an edge. So, my new electoral map looks something like this:

Obama now holds a narrow lead with leaners included of 242-238, with 4 states: Michigan, Ohio, Missouri, and Wisconsin being anyone’s guess. My overall map of the States that are in play hasn’t changed at all though with McCain leading 229-200:

I do think there are some states we could see come into play or that at least have some tantalizing poll numbers:

Indiana: Bush won it by 20.9%, however a couple recent polls put it in single digits. One poll even had Obama up 1%. I’m not buying this state at this point.

North Carolina: McCain’s narrowly up in recent polling, and it gets even tighter with Bob Barr in.

Montana: This is an intriguing state. Since 1964, the State’s voted Democratic for President just once (1992.) In the Ross Perot year, Bill Clinton carried the state. Democratic Governor Brian Schweitzer thinks that the candidacy of Bob Barr could help Obama carry the state by siphoning Republican votes from McCain.

If Barr’s candidacy follows the pattern of Ralph Nader’s where 47% of his votes come from the major party candidate closest to him (McCain) and 21% from the other guy (Obama), with about a third being new voters, Democrats would really need Barr to carry 15-20% of the vote in Montana, unless Obama closes the gap much further himself.

Connecticutt: This Rasmussen poll had to be one of the oddest of the season. It shows Obama leading by only 3 points. Personally, it seems like a fluke. While Rasmussen is the best pollster out there (given the competition it doesn’t say much.) due to their use of a “Likely Voter” sample rather than a registered voter one, they manage to come up with some far out their results. (See also this poll from May 1st showing McCain up only 5 in Texas.) Given that, I’m also not moving New Hampshire out of the Lean McCain column after Rasmussen’s recent poll showing Obama up by 5.

West Virginia: Given Obama’s unpopularity, this poll showing him down by 8 in the Green Mountain State was a bit of a surprise. The reason for Obama being within single digits is McCain’s high unfavorables (48%). Still, barring Bob Barr running into the mid-teens (extremely unlikely), it’s very hard to see how Obama could close the gap further with his own 57% unfavorable rating.

Overall: Looking at the RCP electoral college, I’m struck that Obama is running well-ahead of Kerry outside of Swing States, with McCain running well behind Bush’s 2004 numbers. It’s just not showing up in the electoral college. For example, Bush won Mississippi by 19.6%. The polling average shows McCain leading by only 11.4%. Thus, while McCain’s electoral college prospects remain fair, a McCain win is likely going to come with the loss of the popular vote, and if Obama loses that way, you can expect that Florida 2000 will end up looking like a picnic.