Fortune Favors the Bold

“Fortune favors the bold.”-Sun Tzu.

People are at last seeing the Fred Thompson they expected when he announced for President: A clear, unequivocal conservative. His final speech to Iowa voters has been shown on numerous blogs across the internet:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VblJq4j0_SE[/youtube]

It’s been compared to Reagan’s 1976 speech to North Carolina voters before he won that state’s primary in May. It’s a boldly conservative, though not scary speech. 

Fred is carrying boldness to a new level by saying he needs to finish 2nd in Iowa . There are a couple reasons, he might do this.

First of all, could be merely a tip of the hat to political reality. While finishing 3rd would give Fred some momentum, in his battle to win Conservatives, losing to both Mitt and Huck would make a South Carolina comeback more improbable.

However, there’s a second policy. Fred may know the Iowa race better than the pollsters (in fact, he’d just about have to.) Largely the Caucus is about turnout, and he has the organization of Congressman Steve King (R-IA) working on his behalf. So, if he’s got a sense on the ground that second is within grasp, raising expectations makes sense.

Of course, if he finishes second, it means that either Mitt or Huck will finish third, which would change the shape of the race.

Romney finishing 3rd (very unlikely) puts him on the ropes in New Hampshire. He’d be down, but not out. Ask George H.W. Bush who finished 3rd in Iowa in 1988 and went on to win the Presidency.

Huckabee finishing 3rd would be a devestating blow. It’d be an implosion worse than Howard Dean in 2004, because he wouldn’t have the financial capital to come back as fundraising has remained mostly stagnant. Fred beating Huck would change the race.

Having set expectations for 2nd, Fred’s campaign will be in trouble if he doesn’t do it, but if he does, it’ll shake up the race. Sun Tzu would approve.