Harrop: I Speak for the Independents

The Blame Palin game is into high gear. The left fears her and wants to ensure she never comes back. Frances Harrop writes that she’s voting for Obama and Palin made her do it:

Independents like me wanted two things out of a McCain running mate. (1) A capable leader who could step into the top job should something happen to the not-very-young No. 1. (2) Someone who would temper McCain’s recent efforts to woo social conservatives. They got neither in the Alaska governor.

So you’re saying this election could have been won with Tom Ridge? Give me a break. McCain on his own was down 8 to Obama before making the pick. Harrop then engages in some nice revisionist history:

Sure, Palin gave him a bump in the polls right after the Republican convention. She gave a rousing speech, written by a crack speechwriter. But once on her own, she quickly displayed a shocking ignorance of world affairs and a general inability to talk coherently on policy matters. Her habit of dividing America — even individual states — into good and not-as-good sectors comes off as downright weird.

Just look at the RealClearPolitics poll averages dating back to early September. The McCain-Palin numbers started cratering about a week after the convention, which was two weeks before the stock market did.

So Palin is reduced to little more than someone who reads from a teleprompter. I’d contest what Harrop suggests as well  about polling numbers. The ticket had a bump out of the convention that got it to even or slightly ahead. Convention bumps fade, but the ticket was doing pretty well until September 15 when Lehman brothers failed (and it should be noted that the Government takeover of Feddie and Frannie occurred only 3 days after the convention on September 7).

Independents tend to be fiscally conservative, socially liberal and strong on defense.They were McCain’s natural constituency and in mid-September gave him a 13-point margin. That lead has since flipped over to Obama, and Palin is a big reason.

So Independents have an organized political philosophy now? To claim to speak for the Independents is absurd on its face. In my experience, Independents aren’t as obsessed with aboriton as Ms. Harrop, regardless.

Second point, which poll is Harrop talking about? There are multiple polls with multiple breakdowns of Independents. To debate phantom polls seems silly.

And if McCain had taken Harrop’s advice and chosen a pro-choicer like she wanted, McCain would have nowhere near the intensity within his own party, but he could have hoped pro-Choice Independents would have pushed him over the top. Right.

Bottom line is that McCain’s problems in this campaign have had to do with difficulty responding to the financial crisis, not Palin. Given that McCain the Moderate was losing on his own well before Palin, it’s hard to argue she hurt the ticket. I’d also point out that the lead in the phantom poll cited by Ms. Harrop occurred after Palin was nominated.