Huckabee Opens Mouth, Inserts Foot

An ill-considered word creates another embarrassment for Huckabee:

Huckabee is, indeed, a discreet fellow, but he has no trouble making his feelings known. He mentioned how much he respected his fellow candidates John McCain and Rudolph W. Giuliani. The name of his principal rival in Iowa, Mitt Romney, went unmentioned. Romney, a Mormon, had promised that he would be addressing the subject of his religion a few days later. I asked Huckabee, who describes himself as the only Republican candidate with a degree in theology, if he considered Mormonism a cult or a religion. “I think it’s a religion,” he said. “I really don’t know much about it.”

I was about to jot down this piece of boilerplate when Huckabee surprised me with a question of his own: “Don’t Mormons,” he asked in an innocent voice, “believe that Jesus and the devil are brothers?”

Now, it’s not necessarily unusual for Huckabee not to be knowledgeable about Mormonism, only 0.7% of his state is Mormon. However the question was out of place, to put it mildly, in a presidential campaign.

It’s a quite inflammatory question at that. However, the way Huckabee explains it, he was talking to the reporter, who kept asking him questions about Mormonism. And the Reporter was “well-versed on comparative religions”, so Huckabee asked the question out of curiosity, as he’d heard people say that; evidently meaning, “is it true that . . . ?”

After yesterday’s debate, he went up to Romney and apologized for the quote, and Romney graciously accepted it. Bravo for Romney, but I’d suggest that from now on, if Huckabee is curious about a religion, he not ask a reporter in an on-the-record interview. You can judge the sincerity of the explanation for yourself:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFRK4tNm0Nw[/youtube]

Regardless, it wasn’t a great moment for Huckabee. The only good news is that the worst this means is that Huckabee will not win the Utah Primary (even if Romney drops out before February 5) and he’ll also have a heck of a time in Idaho should the election be that tight. So, apparently the moral of the story is to only say stupid stuff against groups that are small and not popular with the media. Welcome to the 21st century.

The longer term problem is that Huckabee isn’t exactly doing favors to those of us Evangelicals who live in states with sizable Mormon populations. If Democrats were smart, they could use this as a wedge into the LDS community, but as they’re not, just expect a little more reticence by some LDS folks to support Evangelicals in elections.

The statement (which will probably lose Huck’s context) will also serve as fodder for a media that wants to expose religious beliefs to ridicule by asking candidates who they think is going to Heaven, their views on Tongue Speaking, etc.

Getting into the particulars of different faiths and denominations is a dangerous path that ultimately leads to the type of sectarianism we’ve seen in other countries and which our founders tried to avoid. Ultimately, our country has ideals that revolve around God such as God as the source of our rights and has a long history of recognition of God in public places, etc. In recent years, religious conservatives including many Mormons, Evangelicals, Catholics, and Orthodox Jews have come together around some key points like the Defense of Marriage, Abortion, and the Display of the Ten Commandments. Attempts to accentuate the theological differences are ultimately meant to drive a wedge into that resolution.

Overblown Huckabee General Election Loser Stories

I’ve had many concerns about Mike Huckabee’s electability, but two stories from earlier in the week, pressed the issue. CNN reported that Huckabee lost in polls between him and major Democratic Contenders. While Blogs for Thompson was quick to jump on this, CNN’s political analysis made a point that many of the anti-Huck folks totally ignored:

But Huckabee’s double-digit deficits with the leading Democrats likely suggest that the Arkansas Republican still lacks widespread name recognition nationally, according to Keating Holland, CNN’s polling director.

Makes more sense than trailing by a big margin in and of themselves, because Huckabee is the new kid in this campaign and unknown by folks who haven’t been paying attention (which would be most of the country.)

This item from the Drudge Report has cited acclaimed quite a bit as well:

Democrat party officials are avoiding any and all criticism of Republican presidential contender Mike Huckabee, insiders reveal. The Democratic National Committee has told staffers to hold all fire, until he secures the party’s nomination. The directive has come down from the highest levels within the party, according to a top source. Within the DNC, Huckabee is known as the “glass jaw — and they’re just waiting to break it.”

In fact, as the story broke over the weekend that Huckabee said he wanted to isolate AIDS patients back in 1992, the DNC ignored the opportunity to slam the candidate from the left.

“He’ll easily be their McGovern, an easy kill,” mocked one senior Democrat operative Tuesday morning from Washington.

“His letting out murderers because they shout ‘Jesus’, his wanting to put 300,000 AIDS patients and Magic Johnson into isolation, ain’t even scratching the surface of what we’ve got on him.”

The discipline the Democrats have shown in not engaging Huckabee has earned the praise of one former Republican Party official:

“The Democrats are doing a much better job restraining themselves than the GOP did in 2003 when Howard Dean looked like he was on the brink of winning the nomination.”

There are two problems with this.

First, I’m not sure that I believe it. The Democrats are proud to be so disciplined on not attacking Huckabee and are waiting for the chance to shatter his glass jaw and then someone at the committee decides to tell about the whole strategy at one of the most-read websites in the world.

There are multiple levels to this. One, it could be possible that the Democrats are just plain stupid and are accidentally tipping their hand. Doubtful, but possible. Two, the Democrats may be saying this now because they are afraid of Huckabee. Three, the Democrats may be doing this to confuse us and think they can make Republicans do something stupid by making the GOP believe they’re afraid of Huckabee. Regardless, I wouldn’t put a ton of faith in the statement.

I also have to look at the possibility of their attacks succeeding and whether they are right. Most likely, they have little more than what’s in the public record. Much that is of great concern, but I question how well Democrats can exploit them. Hillary trying to attack Huckabee on ethics? While Hillary has shown the willingness to throw stones inside a glass house, the strategy hasn’t worked that great in the primary, and could do worse in a general election.

Are Edwards and Obama going to go after him as soft? The idea seems quite absurd.

History would also be on Huckabee’s side. Hillary, Edwards, and Obama are all current and former Senators. The last time a Senator beat a Governor in a Presidential general election? 1920.

The only Democrat who’d have a good shot at Huckabee would be Governor Bill Richardson (D-NM), who would not only be able to play off his own governorship, but peel away economic conservatives with his pro-growth record in New Mexico, but Democrats are not smart enough to nominate Richardson. So defeating Huckabee in the general election could prove a challenge, particularly with his broad-based populist appeal and strong personality.

Getting Testy

In responding to Mitt Romney’s mild attack ad focusing on the difference between Huckabee and Romney on illegal immigration, According to News Report, Huckabee made this grand comparison:

“We didn’t like it when we were in the third grade, I don’t think we like it running for president either,” the former Arkansas governor said during an Iowa press conference. “The more desperate and frantic campaigns get when they see how much money they’ve spent and we’re winning, that causes people to do some sometimes desperate things.”

While Huckabee insisted he wasn’t comparing Romney to a third grade tattle tale, the context is unmistakable and seems a poor attempt to distract from his record on illegal immigration.

Gilchrist Endorsement

Minutemen founder Jim Gilchrist endorsed Huckabee in a move that surprised most people. The reason? Huckabee’s solid immigration plan. Of course, Huckabee did wisely choose to eat some crow in accepting the endorsement:

“Frankly, Jim I’ve got to tell you there were times in the early days of the Minutemen I thought what are these guys doing, what are they about,” Huckabee said. “I confess I owe you an apology.” He said of Gilchrist, “nobody can question his commitment to his country.”

Now, it should be noted that Gilchrist’s endorsement is not being accepted as the final word in this thing by border security folks. The endorsement seems puzzling and shocking, and it’s been stated that it’s not representative of the movement or the Minutemen in general.

It should be noted that Gilchrist could have endorsed Tom Tancredo or Alan Keyes, both of whom have not only been strong on the border, but also crossed party lines to support him in his 2005 bid for Congress as a third party. However, it looks like Gilchrist is making the same decision as pro-lifers backing Mitt Romney: to overlook the past, while hoping to accomplish something with a leader that’s had a change of heart.

National Review Endorses Mitt Romney

For those following, its online edition, this wasn’t a terrible surprise, but it is still a huge endorsement for Mitt, given the iconic status of that magazine in the conservative movement. The money quote:

Uniting the conservative coalition is not enough to win a presidential election, but it is a prerequisite for building on that coalition. Rudolph Giuliani did extraordinary work as mayor of New York and was inspirational on 9/11. But he and Mike Huckabee would pull apart the coalition from opposite ends: Giuliani alienating the social conservatives, and Huckabee the economic (and foreign-policy) conservatives. A Republican party that abandoned either limited government or moral standards would be much diminished in the service it could give the country…

Some conservatives question his sincerity. It is true that he has reversed some of his positions. But we should be careful not to overstate how much he has changed. In 1994, when he tried to unseat Ted Kennedy, he ran against higher taxes and government-run health care, and for school choice, a balanced budget amendment, welfare reform, and “tougher measures to stop illegal immigration.” He was no Rockefeller Republican even then.

Joe Carter challenges the endorsement suggesting that National Review Online has given in to a Manhattan Conservative bias, without regard for social issues. Given the above statement, I can’t help but think that’s a bit unfair. That, plus criticizing Romney for the higher cost of the 2002 Salt Lake City Olympics, seems a tad harsh, particularly when much of the money went to improved security.

Fundamentally, what National Review did is that they took a look at the top candidates in the race as well as the state of the Conservative movement, decided that Huckabee and Giuliani would divide the Conservative movement, and that Fred Thompson couldn’t win, and chose to gamble on Romney. I don’t agree with the decision, but there’s logic behind it.

The problem with the Huckabee campaign is that they don’t really acknowledge the problems Economic Conservatives have. Nor is Huckabee willing to acknowledge he made a goof on any of the tax increases he did as governor. That is bad news for his campaign and the future of the GOP.

Thompson Strategy Shift

Fred Thompson will not be back to New Hampshire. His campaign in the state had been fledgling, with him in low-to-mid single digits in the polls. In the end, leaving New Hampshire is the right call. Fundamentally, his campaign has two major steps to take to have a shot nationally: Finish strong in Iowa and win South Carolina. To do this, he’s campaigning across Iowa from now until Caucus night, which would leave 5 days until the New Hampshire primary for him to make up the huge deficit in the Granite State.

If Thompson manages to finish strong in Iowa, he’ll get a head start on the rest of his opponents in campaigning in South Carolina. If he doesn’t finish strong in Iowa–well, the whole conversation is moot, because his campaign will be over.

Drugging Up Past Issues

The Hillary Campaign is set to go negative on Barack Obama’s drug use. Perhaps it will also attack him for saying he smoked but didn’t inhale, philandering, and draft dodging. Oops, wrong candidate, wrong year. It’s worth noting that Hillary got to the White House the first time on the coattails of a husband that said character doesn’t matter, and now she’s trying to get back to the White House by saying it does. (Hat Tip: Outside the Beltway.)