Idaho 1st Update

First, lets go ahead and start out with Bill Cope writing in Boise Weekly (hat tip: Liberal Idaho) writes :

Yes, come Tuesday, I’m going to the Republican ballot and voting for Sheila Sorensen. I am, what they call, “cross voting.” Democrat party leaders advise against it, but I’ve done it plenty of times. In fact, when it comes to primary elections, I’ve probably voted Republican more often than Democrat. And I know I’m not the only one. There is somewhat of a tradition among Idaho Dems to go Rep in the primaries, and it goes back many election cycles. Maybe back as far as the year Steve Symms ran against Frank Church. Maybe even as far back as when Don Samuelson bumbled out of Sandpoint to become governor. Who knows? Maybe it’s been around since the baby years of Idaho.

Thanks, Bill for making my argument for party registration in this state. Add him to the liberal blogger that endorsed Sorensen. But what does this say about Idaho Dems? They’re party is totally irrelevant. They’ve got a primary for Governor (though that’s one pretty clearly going to be Jerry Brady), they’ve got a much more tightly contested primary for Lieutenant Governor, they’ve got a primary for State Superintendent of Public Instruction which is probably the only office they have a shot at winning statewide, yet what are they doing? They’re playing games in the Republican Primary voting for Vasquez and Sorensen depending on which strategy you take. In Idaho, not even the Democrats believe in the Democratic Party.

Meanwhile Clayton Cramer is leaning towards Vasquez:

Some bloggers have observed that the real problem here is five conservatives and one “centrist” fighting it out for the nomination means that Sorensen could win the nomination because all the liberal and centrist Republicans (which aren’t many, even here in Boise) would vote for her, while the 65-70% of Republicans who are conservatives would split their vote. Obviously, the four weakest conservatives should drop out of the race, and let the strongest conservative stomp all over Sorensen. But who is the strongest conservative candidate?…It is the prospect of watching the Democratic nominee engage in race-baiting in the general election that makes me most inclined to vote for Vasquez

Well, I’d suggest the strongest Conservative is clearly Bill Sali. There are two tests I’d suggest. First, drive through the district, count yard signs and you’ll see a lot more Sali than anyone else than maybe Sorensen.

Second point is that Vasquez, while he’s a great commissioner has run an unbelievably poor campaign. Sorry to say it, but he has. He’s been focused on one issue and one issue alone, and that’s not enough to win. Sali has a record, 16 years and has been a faithful trooper on a ton of issues, and has a lot of friends, the strength of Vasquez’s campaign is the heat of the immigration right now. The two can’t really compare and I’d be very surprised if Vasquez even approached, the votes Bill Sali will get.

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