John McCain Won Saddleback

I sat down yesterday and watched the Saddleback Civil forum. McCain won the forum going away. It was no contest. In fact, the left is so shellshocked, the groundless allegations that McCain cheated are flowing through the net. I’ll believe McCain cheated when somebody produces a video of him watching Obama’s questioning. Until then, let’s not make poor excuses for why Obama didn’t do as well.

McCain came off as strong and decisive, while Obama sputtered “uhs” like crazy. McCain connected with those watching at home through his use of stories. Some may have been familiar to campaign journalists, but these were “new to the voters” stories.

On abortion, he sounded firm and decisive, as well as re-assuring to pro-lifers. On embryonic stem cell research, he was conciliationry and while not being wishy washy, he didn’t come off as strident in his support of ESCR.

He nailed the issues of spending and energy, speaking with passion. He nailed the issue of evil and came off tough and presidential.  He gave voters a reason of why he should be President, rather than simply why Obama shouldn’t be.

One of McCain’s key successes was the use of stories. The stories he told from his decision to stay in Vietnam as a POW rather than jump the line because of rank and the adoption of his daughter painted a great picture of the Senator.

McCain’s greatest risk coming out of here, would be to overplay his hand and assume that he owns the Religious Conservative vote lock, stock, and barrel. If days after talking about the importance of judges, and pledging a pro-life administration, McCain chooses Tom Ridge or Joe Lieberman as VP, it sends exactly the wrong message as if, God forbid something were to happen to a President McCain, the pro-life cause would be undermined. Religious Conservative voters are tired of being lied to, tired of simply being pandered to. McCain cannot take their votes for granted.

For Barack Obama, it was a much more mixed night. Yes, Obama came off as likable. But he added fuel to the suggestion that if you get Obama away from the teleprompter and you have a far less eloquent and capable performer. Obama “uhd” a ton compared to McCain. His answers went long and he really didn’t add a lot in those long answers.

Obama had three defining moments last night. When asked when a child’s human rights should be protected, Obama went off on a long rambling answer that declared the issue theologically and scientifically to be “above his pay grade.” Conservatives in the blogosphere have jumped on this quite rightly. Don Surber calls it a Staff Sergeant’s answer to General’s question and writes:

Now, “above my pay grade” is a military phrase, used by NCOs to communicate with a specialist or private the answer to a policy question.

Usually it means I don’t know or I know but I cannot tell you.

It is not a general’s answer.

Ed Morrisey opines:

First, the entire issue of abortion involves determining when a baby becomes a person. If Obama thinks this is above his pay grade, then he probably shouldn’t be running for political office. If a baby is a person at conception, then abortion is murder. If Obama doesn’t believe that abortion is murder, then he can’t believe in the personhood, the humanity, of an embryo or fetus — not unless he’s some kind of monster.

As President — even as Senator — Obama is expected to have an answer for this.  Quite literally, there is no higher pay grade in the US government, and abortion is one of the issues he has to face.  If he can’t face it, then he should go back to community organization and leave politics for people who can.   John McCain had no trouble answering the same question. Obama dodged it — and for good reason: his answer would have exposed his radical views.

The answer was weak. His statement that he couldn’t argue with anyone who argued that life begins with conception implied that stances on the issue of life and when it began were not subject to rational debate and discussion or even worse than those who disagreed with Obama held an irrattional view that Obama couldn’t and wouldn’t try to talk them out of.

He also came off as weak on the issue of evil, especially compared to McCain pledge to defeat it and hunt Osama Bin-Laden to the gates of Hell.

Then there was his testy exchange with David Brody over the Born Alive Infants Act and made statements that turned out not to be accurate over his Illinois voting record on that issue.

If Obama did anything, by appearing to be personable he may have taken the edge off in terms of the fear factor. By appearing before an Evangelical Church and appearing relaxed, likable, etc., Obama has blunted some of his vulnerability to hard-edged attacks.

A couple provisos here. While this was carried on the cable networks, most Americans didn’t see this forum. A forum conducted on Saturday Night isn’t going to draw as huge an audience as the Presidential Debates will later on this cycle.

Second, it should be clear that the forum is less likely to reach the younger Evangelical votes that Obama hopes to gain among.

Third, it should be noted that Warren is not a universally loved, accepted, or fully known figure within the Evangelical movements.

The overall shape of the race didn’t shift drastically Saturday night, but it should give McCain supporters some hope. If McCain can perform in the Presidential debates with the same level of passion and energy he displayed at Saddleback, McCain does have a shot.

UPDATE

Color David Ripley at Idaho Chooses Life non-plused by McCain’s performance. He mentions that ICL will make its endorsement in September. Given Ripley’s opinion, it seems possible that ICL could sit out the Presidential race or even go third party with Chuck Baldwin. This wouldn’t surprise me as ICL’s endorsement strategy has far more common with Gun Owners of America than with National Right to Life and they have endorsed pro-life State legislative candidates. What would this mean to the Presidential? Not much. If Idaho’s in play, Obama is president by a landslide. Still, an ICL endorsement could give Chuck Baldwin a far more stronger than expected showing in Idaho.