Looking Towards the Idaho Straw Poll

The Spokesman Review reports on the Idaho Strawpoll which is scheduled for January 6th, or the Friday days before the likely New Hampshire Primary Date, leading to speculation that GOP candidates are unlikely to show up. Gary Montcrief at BSU looks at situations under which we might have a candidate show up:

“Usually when you have a big field like this, some candidates kind of focus on Iowa, some focus on New Hampshire, and some focus on Florida or Nevada,” he said. “So there may very well be some candidates, especially some very conservative candidates, who feel New Hampshire isn’t the right venue for them, so they might actually come to Idaho. That seems like it’s possible.”

Possible, not terribly probable. I’ve never known of presidential candidates to leave campaigning in New Hampshire. to go to a non-binding straw poll. No candidate is going to be able to argue to donors. “I may have finished 7th in Iowa and 6th in New Hampshire, but I won the Idaho Straw Poll.”  Duncan Hunter did head to Wyoming last time, but there were delegates at stake there.  Unfortunately, the Idaho Straw Poll is a victim of Florida violating the rules and moving its primary to January which led to Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina also moving up their contests.  Had that not happened, we’d have a decent shot at getting a few candidates to come in.

I will participate, but I fully expect the Straw Poll to go to Ron Paul because not only is this the type of pay-to-play event that his supporters have done well at across the country, but Paul has a strong base in the state.