Minnick v. Stallings

Writes Randy Stapilus:

When Democrat Richard Stallings defeated Republican incumbent George Hansen in 1984 (just after Hansen’s felony convictions), a long line of Idaho Republicans figured he’d be easy pickings in 1986. Stallings went on to win that year decisively, and twice more after that in landslides. Could as easily be that Minnick is in this seat for a spell.

While I’ll agree with Stapilus’ point that Republicans shouldn’t be too over-confident, I’ll dispute that Minnick could “just as easily” as Stallings hold on for multiple terms in Congress. There are several factors against Minnick pulling a Stallings:

1. Richard Stallings was not the most powerful Democrat in Idaho. Democrats were in the middle of dominating the Governorship for 24 years when Stallings arrived. There’s less machinery and less power to help Minnick fend off a challenge.
2. As a Pro-Life Democrat, Stallings was invulnerable to traditional Republican attacks on the abortion issue. He, in fact received three votes at the Democratic Convention in 1988 from Right to Life delegates. Minnick is pro-choice on abortion, to what degree we don’t know though Planned Parenthood and NARAL had a pretty good idea as they donated to him. With Pelosi in the Speaker’s Chair, you can bet on some votes on abortion and other cultural issues that will put Minnick in an uncomfortable position.
3. Stallings didn’t win in a Democratic year. 1984 was the year of Reagan’s 49-state sweep and Stalling was re-elected in Democratic years like 1986 and 1990, and in the mostly neutral 1988 campaign cycle. 2010 looks like a Republican year and a 1-term Incumbent who won by 1.6 percent of the vote had best not get too comfortable.

I think Chris at Unequivocal Notion is right to a degree when he says, “Minnick’s chances in 2010 are firmly rooted in the early successes of the Obama Administration.” However, even if the Obama administration does do okay, I don’t think that guarantees Minnick a re-election. Just ask Congressman Nick Lampson (D-Tx.) or Nancy Boyda (D-Ks.) who were bounced from their seats. Tip O’Neill said that some members of Congress are elected “by accident” but never re-elected by accident.