Most Real Independents Don’t Vote in the Primary

Well, the Idaho Democrats are out with a sanctimonious press release on the closed primaries lawsuit: (Hat Tip: Mountain Goat Report)

“This Republican “purity project” shows that the center has been forced from power in that party.

Idaho is being governed from the far right.” Stennett said. “Idaho Democrats are now at the center – we are the party of the

Idaho independent voter.”

The Democratic Party and its members are at the Center, only if you’re speaking of San Francisco politics. (Apologies to Reps. Mary Lou Shepherd (D-2, 55% Idaho Conservative Rating), Branden Durst (D-18, 33% Idaho Conservative Rating), and Margaret Henbest (D-18, 33% Conservative rating), and Senator Diane Bilyeau (D-29 42% Idaho Conservative Rating) who are actually close to being centrist.)

Most real Independents don’t vote in the primaries. There are exceptions. I know of a self-described Independent in Montana that’s voted in nearly every Republican Primary as far I know. He’s a Conservative and puts Republican yard signs in his yard for both primary and general elections.  He also hasn’t voted Democrat since 1968, so he’d be unlikely to be swayed. Perhaps, if his state introduced  closed primaries, he’d join the GOP, but he’s quite the exception. When I ran for office, I ran into a lot of Independents and most informed me they wouldn’t vote for me because they wouldn’t vote in the primary. Indeed, about 22% of the people turn out to vote in the primaries, expecting to get milelage from this is pretty absurd. Lane Startin makes a great point over at 43rd State Blues:

However, if there are no Democratic candidates, where do these independent voters go?

With candidates in very few districts, the Democrats would seem unable to take much advantage of any fallout as that might be. A couple interesting notes from the Democrats letter:

Republicans and others have tried to smear the Democratic position because Democrats have a closed delegate selection process in the late winter or early spring of presidential election years. “This argument is ridiculous because our meeting is not an election, it’s a delegate selection process,” said Wendy Jaquet, House Democratic Leader. Participants do not sign any official state documents or make official statements about partisanship. They cannot be identified through any official state requests. “It is entirely an internal Democratic Party process, paid for with private funds,” Jaquet said. “There’s simply no comparison between this meeting and a full-blown election.”

Pardon me, Wendy, but don’t they have similar caucuses in Iowa, going on right now? Are you going to tell me the Iowa Caucuses are nothing like elections? I have more than 20 presidential candidates I need to let know that, if that’s the case. Of course they’re like elections, and as a Republican who won’t take the loyalty oath, I’m locked out, I’m unable to have a say in who Idaho Democrats cast their delegates for. I have to wait until May when it’ll all be over except for the shouting on the GOP side.

Continuing on:

The lawsuit would mean an end to same-day registration. In the last presidential primary election, 11,510

Idaho voters registered at the polls. They represent another group that would be disenfranchised.

Completely inaccurate as the Grassroots Idaho GOP explains on their blog:

FACT: The remedy in the lawsuit requires when one chooses to vote in the Primary Election, that in the polling book (where you sign your name when you get your ballot) there be a check box stating you choose to vote in the Republican primary.

A voter can still walk in the door to vote, same-day register as per law, and cast a ballot. The only difference is that if the voter chooses to vote for Republicans in the primary, they check the box.

They also address the more salient point of why the Democrats are protesting so much:

Q. Why do Idaho Democrats even care if Idaho Republicans choose to exercise our 1^st Amendment right to free association by requiring party registration to vote in Republican primaries?

A. Because Democrats stand to lose political favor and they like to cross-over vote in Republican primaries.

Idaho Democrats and some of their sympathizers are objecting by spreading false information. This is not a new phenomenon.

If Democrats lose their ability to work mischief in the Republican Primary, they are almost effectively finished. Those who are coming to the state tend to be Republicans and conservatives. The fear is that the era of Democratic shenanigans to elect liberal-minded Republicans will come to an end.

UPDATE

Apparently, I got MGR’s goat (pun fully intended) with this piece. He writes over at his place:

Adam’s assertion is completely nonfactual to the point of being laughable and shows his ignorance of independent Idahoans, and there are many—thirty-two percent according to a recent survey.  He uses as evidence to support his claim, conversations with a “lot of Independents.”

Well I have to tell Adam he’s wrong.  I’ve been around Idaho a long time and I’ve known a lot of independent voters (emphasis mine), still do.  Until fairly recently I was one.  Independent voters in Idaho do vote in primaries.

With their lawsuit, this group has alienated one third of the voting population.  That may be the biggest political blunder in this state’s history.   

So MGR says my claim is laughable because I site as support “a lot of Independent voters” I ran into while knocking on 2,000 doors during my 2004 bid for the legislature. And what does he use to counter my argument? A lot of Independent voters he’s met. In fact, he used to be one (and if MGR is the type of Independent we’re talking about, then close it as fast as you can.

So it’s his experience v. my experience if we leave it at that. However, let’s take a look at some hard numbers. Here are the voter turnouts for the last three primaries:

32%-2002

27%-2004

26%-2006

Now, for most of the Independents to being voting in the primaries, they would have to be half the voters in 2002,  and around 60% in 2004 and 2006. With Independent voters picking all the GOP nominees  according to MGR ,  we can summarily blame them for all the problems in our state, and say it’s time to give Republicans a chance.

A more typical percentage of a party’s primary’s electorate to be Independents is around 23-27% of the total vote. While I have no figures for Idaho, take a look at various results from other state’s primaries a few years back. In the 1996, New Hampshire Primary, Independents made up 35% of voters in that key contest. Other states had far less including the pivotal South Carolina GOP primary with only 26% of Independents showing up. So, I think the 25% of Primary voters figures is at least reasonable.

So, that would make 6.5% of voters who Engage in Independent cross-over voting, or around 20% of the touted numbers of Independent voters.  Thus indicating that as I stated, the Majority of Independent Voters tend not to vote in primaries.

Now, what effect will this have on this 6.5%:

A percentage of them we’re voting in the Democratic Primary anyway (we have no way to differentiate this between the two parties), so let’s take 15% of that total away.

I also think 20% will go ahead and register as Republicans to have an impact on the process. I expect 25% to go over to the Democrats full bore, and the other 40% to remain Independents, though perhaps cheesed off that the GOP might let them pick their nominee. So, the way I calculate it and guestimate it, the net cost to the GOP is somewhere around 1.7% of the vote, a little more realistic than the high ball figure of 1/3rd given by Mountain Goat.