New Jersey Is Not A Battleground

Ed Morrissey over at Hot Air writes:

Barack Obama has another Atlantic seaboard state slipping away from him.  A new Quinnipiac survey shows Obama losing seven points in a month and declining to a virtual tie in New Jersey.  With New York down to a five-point lead, the traditional Democratic bastions have now come into play in the election, boding ill for Obama in more traditional battleground states:

New Jersey will not be a battleground. Every 4 years, it seems that some poll shows New Jersey as close and the Republican candidate ends up going there in hopes of turning it to Republican. It’s not going to happen.

First of all, I wouldn’t make any calls on the basis of one poll, particularly a Quinnipiac Poll. Quinnipiac tends to put out weird little outliers. It’s not that their biased, just often wrong and outside the mark. Looking at the Real Clear Politics poll average, Obama’s got a lead of 5.8%. Kinda close. But is it really worth the effort? Pennsylvania, next door has more electoral votes and Obama’s average lead is only 1.6%. McCain wins Pennsylvania and he’s President.

In past elections, Republicans have over-reached. I think it has got to be all about the swing states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, maybe Wisconsin. If you want something outside the traditional swing states, try Washington where Survey USA shows Obama up only 4, and Rasmussen showed him up only 2. Washington makes a ton of sense with McCain’s Naval experience and Palin’s regional advantage. Add to that the fact that Dino Rossi is running a very strong candidacy for Governor that provides a very good campaign base.

As for New Jersey, there’s no way this state goes McCain, and resources should not be committed there.

In other polls:

• Confirmed: We can safely that Sienna poll was an outlier. Rasmussen shows Obama up by 13. While this isn’t a great margin (down from 20 points a month and a half ago), New York won’t be a swing state this year either.
• Also confirmed: Public Policy Polling became the sixth survey in the past week to show a 3 or 4 point McCain lead in Ohio.