On Fred Thompson’s NRLC Endorsement

When I talked with David Oatney on his show about the Presidential race, we both felt that the Thompson campaign (which he supports) was drifting. Enthusiasm for Fred had ebbed. In my opinion, it peaked some time before he got in.

The endorsement of National Right to Life gives Team Fred a chance to catch a second wind. What it doesn’t do is help Fred mend fences with religious conservatives and give them a reason to take a second look at him. Fred’s pro-life bonafides will be harder to challenge: harder, but not impossible.

National Right to Life is not a flame throwing organization, but tends to endorse candidates who may not be the sort to help move America in a pro-life direction through their rhetoric and eloquence, but will move the ball forward at this moment. Many folks in the pro-life movement don’t trust NRLC. So, this doesn’t sew up all religious conservative votes, but it helps a campaign that’s been hemorrhaging values voters since at least September.

For Mitt Romney, it’s a significant setback. Three things seem to have contributed to him not being endorsed. According to Jill Stanek, the sincerity of his convictions were in doubt. Red State reports that the attacks launched by his biggest pro-life supporter on the late campaign of Sam Brownback were not well received and that folks were upset that his health care plan in Massachusetts provided $50 abortions. The NRLC’s decision not to endorse Romney is the sound of a giant bell going “No Sale” from one of America’s most prominent social conservative groups.

For Mike Huckabee, this is another reminder that he must win Iowa. Polls show him in a strong 2nd, which won’t be good enough.

In Iowa, there’s a significant portion of the State’s Religious Conservatives that will buck the leadership and vote for a candidates who shares their values. (Alan Keyes got 14% in 2000.) In South Carolina, the other key battleground for conservatives, they tend to vote more as the establishment says unless given a reason to do otherwise. Thus Huckabee must give them a reason by winning Iowa in order to win South Carolina. If Huckabee doesn’t win Iowa, his campaign will be moribund before Super Tuesday.

So, what it comes down to is three conservatives desperately needing a Primary Night victory in South Carolina and the one who wins there will have the best chance of winning the nomination.