Palin Power: There’s No Denying It

Before the runoff election, there were several statements from bloggers indicating a victory by Saxby Chambliss would be a victory for Sarah Palin. Wrote John Hawkins of Right Wing News:

Tomorrow, Saxby Chambliss has his run-off election with Jim Martin and given that it’s a close race and holding on to his seat is incredibly important, he could have just about any Republican he wants on the campaign trail for him today. He could have John McCain, Arnold Schwarzenegger, George Bush, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Mitch McConnell, you name it — out there campaigning for him in crunch time.

Yet, he’s spending the most important time of the campaign appearing as often as humanly possible with Sarah Palin. I guess he didn’t get the memo from all the Inside-the-Beltway super geniuses in D.C. who’ve said she’s political death, dragged down the McCain campaign, is a sure loser, etc., etc., etc.

Well, tomorrow night, if Chambliss comes out on top — and I think he has a good shot at it — there are going to be two big winners in this race: Saxby Chambliss and Sarah Palin.

Erick Erickson of Red State fame and an actual Georgian, writing in Human Events had this to say:

Palin, in fact, still draws rock star crowds of thousands of Republicans eager to hear the one candidate they’ve connected with this year. In Augusta, on a post-holiday Monday morning at 8:30 a.m., the crowd was several thousand people. She can energize and excite Republican voters in a way John McCain never could…

Barack Obama will not campaign for Jim Martin in person. He has targeted a few radio ads on urban and African-American radio stations. He has also done targeted automated phone calls to Democrat voters. But he will not show his face in Georgia for Martin. Palin, on the other hand, is criss-crossing the state raising money and turning out the vote for Saxby. She is, no doubt, mindful that the media will trumpet a Chambliss loss as another defeat for Palin. The headlines are predictable: “Palin Causes Chambliss to Lose Georgia”.

Of course, polling shows that will most likely not happen. The media will respond by ignoring the Palin factor. Republicans, however, should pay attention to it. For the entire month, the Chambliss campaign has gotten the same question: “Is Sarah Palin coming?” No one has cared about Huckabee, Romney, Giuliani, or McCain. Palin is all anyone wanted.

On Monday she drew massive crowds for Saxby. Today, those excited masses are going to vote for Chambliss, largely because Sarah Palin asked them to.

My first reaction to this idea of Sarah Palin as the source of Chambliss’ victory was that I didn’t buy it. Polls showed Chambliss up by as much as 7 points. Though, some polls showed it as close as 4. Then came last night’s result, which with 97% reporting shows a 57.4% to 42.6% win, a 14.8% margin of victory, a virtual landslide for Saxby Chambliss.

I think at the end of the day that if Sarah Palin doesn’t show up in Georgia, Saxby Chambliss still wins. But by nearly 15 points?  No way. Palin’s appearances galvanized the base of the party in a way that I don’t think anyone else’s appearance did. This isn’t to say Huckabee, Romney, McCain, or Giuliani were unhelpful or didn’t matter, or that calls from the RNC and HuckPAC into Georgia didn’t help. But the big difference between  the final polls and the final results seems to indicate an “x” factor and I think that factor is Sarah Palin.

Palin holds a unique spot in the party as much as some folks want to deny it. People in Georgia are probably sicker of politics than anyone in the country. For most of us, November 5 marked a return to normal after a long campaign. For Georgians, Election 2008 was the campaign that wouldn’t die.

And yet, thousands showed up for Sarah Palin’s stops in Georgia on a Monday. Who else could draw a crowd of Thousands to come out to a political rally on a work day in December, in a state where folks have got to be thoroughly tired of politics? It’s a power of a leader that the party regulars love and believe in. Contrary to what some folks wish, she’s not going away.  If Bob McConnell’s smart, expect to see here at least once if not more during next year’s Virginia’s gubenatorial race.