Political Calculus: Third Party Better for GOP than Giuliani Presidency

The Republican Party would be better off if a third party emerges than if Rudy Giuliani wins the Presidency.  An Audacious statement, I know, but let me lay out my argument.

In a rather incendary e-mail to David Brody, a Giuliani supporter writes:

If James Dobson, Tony Perkins, Richard Vigeurie, Gary Bauer, etc do not support Giuliani in the 2008 election, are determined to firm a third party, it will not only be the end of the Republican Party, they will in reality be casting a vote for Hillary Clinton, who has declared her hatred for all Republicans especially the vast right wing, the four men being a specific part of…We must stop their antics for the salvation of the rest of us. I am pro gun, against abortion and against gay marriage, but I am also an American first and foremost, and they will be as guilty of treason as George Soros and the Moveon.org. crowd.

Treason is a pretty high charge for a lack of party loyalty.  One might argue that the charge could most rightly be hung around the neck of Giuliani supporters for nominating someone who will divide the party and cause a defeat. Even if it doesn’t, Rudy Giuliani could be the Democrats’ best friend for the long term if he’s elected. Here’s why.

It is undeniable that many Evangelicals will simply not show up, third party or not. Don’t believe me? Ask Karl Rove. The 2000 race was so close because 2 million Evangelicals didn’t show up at the polls because Bush was underwelming. Want to take a guess at how many won’t show for Giuliani? I’d say 5 million would be a conservative guess. Argue and cajole as much as you like, but many just won’t show up.

If Rudy’s to win, who will show up? Socially liberal voters who are concerned with security. They’re more likely to vote for Democrats. Tell me, is this a great outcome given the number of GOP Senate seats out there? Don’t think the Senate matters. See how a 51-49 Democrat Senate cajoled Bush out of a Ted Olsen appointment and tell me it doesn’t matter.

Part of the problem with Rudy supporters is that they look at the Presidency as a kingship. If Rudy wins, then the Republicans win and everything’s okay. Well, not necessarily. The type of people who would have to replace lost Evangelicals would be voters who would tend to vote for Democratic members of Congress or at least split.

One thing  people forget about 2000 is that the GOP lost 4 seats and several house seats as Bush won the White House.  Those Evangelicals who didn’t show up were critical. Had those 2 million Evangelicals shown up to vote, Slade Gorton, John Ashcroft, and Spence Abraham would have almost certainly survived. They may even  have saved Rod Grams in Minnesota. Instead, those seats fell to the Democrats.

With all these GOP Senate Seats on the line, do we really want to replace 5 million Evangelicals who are very likely to support the Republican Senate and House Candidates with the same number of folks who are very likely to vote Democrat or at least split down the line? It’s a recipe for disaster.

Plus, if Giuliani governs as I imagine he will (to the left of the base), it’s not hard to picture an Eisenhower Administration situation where the GOP falls deeper and deeper into the whole, and believe it or not, the other branches of government do matter.

It should be pointed out that when Clinton won in 1992, Republicans gained 10 house seats and held even in the Senate. With Ross Perot running, a lot of Republican-leaning voters who would have had nowhere to go voted for Perot and Republican Congressional Candidates. Had Perot not run, Bush probably would have lost and Republicans would have lost more Senate seats and more House Seats.

Simply put, there’s a big slice of the population for whom if there’s no presidential election, there’s no point voting.  If there’s discontent that stops people from pulling the lever for a Presidential Candidate, they’re not going to vote which costs Republicans up and down the ticket. Such a passive aggressive rudderless leaderless movement will kill the GOP at the congressional level.

A third party is much better as third parties rarely have their own Congressional Candidates and supporters of a pro-life party would be more likely to back the GOP down the ticket. The best result, of course is for Rudy not to be the nominee. Only stubborn and foolish people see a stampede that will destroy the party and insist on following that disastrous course. Sadly, Rudy supporters don’t get it and if they have their way, the GOP will be in serious trouble.