Political Death by a Thousand Paper Cuts

The two latest stories on Republican Congressional Candidate Vaughn Ward are both minor issues. That he had delinquent property taxes that were paid only after the Statesman called asking for comments is embarassing, but not fatal. Vaughn Ward getting in trouble with the Marine Corps for not including a disclaimer on his ad, again minor stuff, but it adds up.

The Ward campaign has suffered from a ton of small gaffes, and it’s that which threatens a campaign that has the full support of the GOP establishment in the state and strong investments from conservative groups across the nation.

While there have been some cheapshots from the Statesman, such as the “hypocrisy” meme over Ward’s wifes employment, Ward’s problems have been mostly self-inflicted. He hasn’t run a great campaign in the Primary, which raises questions as to whether he can run a good campaign in the general against a very smart politician in Walt Minnick. And while people complained about Bill Sali committing some gaffes along the way, Sali survived for as long as he did because he had a core base of people who believed him and knew what he stood for. Ward’s problem is that in addition to the gaffes, most voters aren’t familiar to him. Your average voter who supports Vaughn Ward is someone who met him and liked him or heard about his service and liked him, as such his support is very shallow and fickle.

Raul Labrador is well positioned here to gain advantage. Labrador has an opponent who has taken a political beating, but without Labrador having any part in it. Thus Labrador looks better and better.  And any attempt to try and tarnish Labrador at this point will likely backfire on the Ward campaign. I think the advantage Ward enjoyed early on is gone, and that this is anyone’s race. The debates ahead will be crucial and may have a huge impact on who faces Walt Minnick.