Quarterly Election Predictions

Here’s how I see the election coming out in November:

National:

Presidential Election:

Obama 48%-294 electoral votes
McCain 45%-244 electoral votes
Bob Barr-4%
Alan Keyes-2%
Ralph Nader-1%

Odds of Obama victory: 75%

Obama’s Weakspot: Polls in Ohio show Obama trailing John McCain significantly. While, it’s possible for Obama to win by bringing home swing states like New Mexico, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada, it’s an iffy proposition to say the least. I also currently have John McCain turning New Hampshire red, which would leave Obama with a 274-264 razor thin margin.

Predicted Idaho Result:
John McCain 52%
Barack Obama 34%
Bob Barr 8%
Alan Keyes 4%
Ralph Nader 2%

Veep Thoughts: Obama would do well to pick New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson (D) who would bring more experience to the ticket and would also help heal Democratic rifts in the Democratic Party over race, while giving Obama  leg-up in Colorado and New Mexico. McCain, meanwhile would probably do well to pick a Governor. McCain’s challenge is that he’ll want to pick a running mate that will not overshadow him on the ticket, but who has substantial executive experience. Look for Governor Rick Perry (R-TX) as a prime candidate.

U.S. Senate: +3 Democrats: 52D, 46R, 2I
U.S. House: +8 Republicans

Due to poor recruiting by the NRSC, Democrats should take thee of the five toss-up elections for Senate in Alaska, Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and New Mexico.

In the House, despite a spate of Republican reitrements, the GOP should benefit for a general anti-incumbent mood, as well as several vulnerbale Democratic Incumbents. In addition, in close districts, the presence of right-leaning third party candidates at the top of the ticket will boost GOP congressional candidates in districts that are not contested by the third party. Next Congress will see somewhere between 207-209 House Republicans (depending on the results of Special elections held in May of this yer) which will make the job of a President Obama much harder.