The RINO Roars

Back in June, I wrote a speculative piece, the type of thing that political writers write when there’s no actual news. I suggested  that it was possible that in a more conservative Senate, Senate Assistant Majority Leader Joe Stegner may not only be Assistant Majority Leader, but I also predicted that if he lost the spot of Assistant Majority Leader, he may leave the GOP for the Democrats. Today, a ticked off Stegner shot back in an interview with Idaho Reporter:

Stegner said that Graham’s assertions are “Based on nothing but conjecture,” and that “It’s a ridiculous speculation” by the blogger.  He said that Graham had no evidence when he posted his speculation and that no evidence actually exists to suggest a party-swap on his part.  ”I have no intention of changing parties and leaving the Republican Party,” concluded Stegner.

Of course, it was conjecture, by which I mean, it was an educated guess. However, for Stegner to be so up in arms about conjecture in political writing seems to be a case of the gentleman protesting too much.

And actually, Stegner’s response makes me think my hypothetical prediction (ie. If Stegner loses out on being Assistant Majority Leader, then he’ll become Senate Minority leader.)  For one thing, he used a favorite political weasel word. He said he didn’t intend to change parties. Sorry, Senator, I’m from Idaho and I know what it means politicians use the word “intend”:

On Sept. 1, Sen. Larry Craig told Idaho and the world he intended to resign Sept. 30.

We all know how that turned out. 

Let me tell you one thing that successful politicians never intend to do: lose. Senator Stegner  intends to be re-elected as Assistant Senate Majority Leader. So, the question of a back up plan is not even there.

But Stegner’s not given an ironclad committment that he’ll stay in the GOP no matter what. Just that he doesn’t intend to leave. He intends to be re-elected as Assistant Majority Leader and remain the most powerful left winger in the state of Idaho.

But what if that doesn’t work out? I don’t think he knows, and I think my prediction is a reasonable one.  That’s why he didn’t make a definitive statement like, “I’m a Republican and I will stay one. I will never switch parties under any circumstances.”

Even if Stegner makes a more definitive statement, I won’t buy it. Remember what Independent Senate Candidate Charlie Crist in Florida said when he was a Republican:

“I’m running as a Republican. I’m very proud to be from the party of Abraham Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, others that really have stood up for our party, like Ronald Reagan. This is a great party. It has a great future. We have a great opportunity to win in November. It’s important that we put a candidate up that can win in November.”

(Q: So are you ruling out that you will file as an Independent by the April 30th deadline?)

“That’s right. That’s right. I’m running as a Republican

And Crist is now running as an Independent, which shows how much loyalty you can expect from politicians whose only reason for being part of  the party is to forward their own ambitions. And I should say that Charlie’s Crist had far more in common with the GOP prior to this year than Joe Stegner ever has.

Of course, this is all hypothetical. The only way we’ll find out what Stegner will do is for conservatives to win their Senate races and unite behind an Assistant Majority Leader who has more in common with mainstream Republicans than he does with mainstream Democrats. If that happens, we’ll find out whether I was right or wrong, and whether Stegner wants to be nothing more than 1 vote out of 27 or 28. 

And I sure hope we get the chance to find out.