Roberts Out, Labrador In

The announcement that Idaho Rep. Ken Roberts (R-Donnelly) is leaving the U.S. House race was somewhat surprising. Obviously, all the best to Roberts and his family as they deal with the health issues that led to him leaving the race.

Also Id. Rep. Raul Labrador (R-14) is saying he’ll make a formal announcement for the seat to run against Vaughn Ward. Randy Stapilus doesn’t get the appeal or the potential appeal of Raul Labrador:

Won’t be easy at this point. It’s not as if Ward is running or could be positioned as a moderate in this race, and it’s hard to see what advantages Labrador, starting quite a few months later than Roberts, would bring that his fellow legislator did not. “Monumental” is a reasonable adjective. 

Well, let me explain the appeal of Labrador and the real challenge that Ward faces. It’s not so much that Ward can be defined as a moderate, but rather that he can be defined as a candidate of the establishment. Consider this: 73% of Republican voters say that Republicans in Congress are out of touch. Endorsements like that which came from the ACU PAC aren’t going to help him out in Idaho.

If voters come to the conclusion that Vaughn Ward will be as good as an average Republican member of Congress, I think he could lose this primary. To be honest, I’ve heard both side regarding Ward and how he’s viewed.

Labrador has got several things going him for that Roberts didn’t. When it came to all the happenings leading up last year’s State Convention, Roberts was a non-entity. Labrador really was a key player. In Ada County, he took the lead in preparing a proposal that set the stage for newly elected folks to go to the State Republican Convention, and on the floor, it was his parliamentary maneuvers that allowed people to have a secret ballot in the vote for Chairman despite the then-party establishments attempt to have a public vote, which could have put a lot of folks in very uncomfortable situations. Labrador took on the establishment to do what those of us on the prevailing side viewed to be the right thing and to, in the process protect the privacy and security of folks to cast their ballot. That’s the type of thing people remember and engenders a sense of loyalty.

Ward, to his credit has taken on some of the profligacy of the Bush Administration on spending and he disagrees with the TARP bailouts. That helps, but the question that Ward has said people ask him often is how he’s going to avoid being changed by Washington.

It’s one thing to take a stand on the campaign trail. It’s another thing altogether when Majority Whip Eric Cantor comes out and tells you that he needs your vote for something, like TARP, that you know is bad for the country. Do you cast the right vote and lose some prestige with the party leader, making it less likely you advance in your congressional career or do you cast a vote that you know will be bad for the country’s future. In theory, most people would say no. In practice, a leader like Cantor is going to be a colleague, a co-worker. How do you handle that pressure?

There are other dynamics obviously. The match-up between a lawyer and a veteran of the military and CIA certainly favors Ward from an occupational standpoint. And the early start favors Ward. He has extended his time and made positive impressions with a lot of folks. The question for many voters is going to be who can we trust to actually live out their conservative values? How much traction the upcoming Labrador campaign can get  will ultimately be a test of how well Ward has succeeded in convincing folks that he can be trusted.