The 3Ps: What Ultimately Matters for a Clinton Candidacy

As I try to digest the irony of the supporters of a candidate who wants to get rid of the electoral college arguing the electoral college vote count should be determinant of the Democratic Nominee for Super Delegates, I think it raises the question, “What should matter to Super Delegates?”

I don’t think, given the views of Democratic Party regulars, that Delegate math is determinant, that’s the same as saying the electoral college should be determined.

What matters for Hillary Clinton to legitimately claim the Democratic nomination are two numbers. The Popular vote (which Obama leads by 710,000) in Democratic primaries and the Popular vote with Florida’s Primary included (which Obama leads by 416,000). If at the end of the day, if you were to throw in Florida’s vote and Clinton’s not leading, she might as well pack it in after June.  There are keys for Clinton:

1) Pennsylvania-If Clinton wins Pennsylvania by less than 10 points, she has every right to continue, but for all intents and purposes, Barack Obama will be unstoppable. A solid victory in Pennsylvania is key. A smashing victory in Pennsylvania, could give Clinton the momentum needed to overtake Obama in North Carolina and strengthen her hand in Indiana which votes in Early May. Early polls in West Virginia show her up big. If Clinton wins Pennsylvania solidly, she has a chance of sweeping through contests all the way through May 13. More importantly, she can close the gap on Obama in the popular vote. In the slightly smaller state of Ohio, Clinton won by 10 percentage points and beat Obama by 228,000 votes. Were she to win Pennsylvania by 15 points with a similar number of voters, she would close the gap on Obama by 342,000 votes, leaving him with a scant 74,000 vote lead counting Florida, and 368,000 votes. If Clinton were to narrowly win North Carolina, by say 15,000 votes and then win Indiana by 45,000, she’d close the gap to 14,000 and 308,000 respectively. And then assuming a 300,000 vote turnout in West Virginia with a 15-point victory, she’d be leading by 31,000 with Florida and trailing nationwide by 263,000. The next week, assuming a turnout of 400,000 in Kentucky, and a ten point victory, and assuming that Obama pull out a 5 point Victory in Oregon with 400,000 votes turning out, that would leave Clinton with a (counting Florida) lead of 51,000 and Obama leading nationwide without Florida by 243,000. *

*All figures are guesses based on previous primaries and for rounding purposes.

2) This brings us to our second key: Puerto Rico. Puerto Governor Anibal Acevedo-Villa has endorsed Barack Obama, but the Hispanic vote elsewhere has gone for Hillary Clinton by wide margins and other leaders leaning towards Clinton. However, Puerto Rico could have a huge turnout. It’s not the most Republican place on Earth, but 238,000 turnout in 1996 to give Bob Dole 98% of the vote. It’s not far fetched to imagine a 600,000 vote turnout and if Clinton can win by 10 points, she’d increase her with Florida lead 111,000 and cut Obama’s lead 183,000. Then looking to Montana and South Dakota’s Primaries, Clinton may be favored. If Obama is reeling, Montana and South Dakota may look less kindly on him than other Western States have, with 5 point Clinton victories in both states and a 20,000 vote gain, the Democratic Primary process could end with Hillary having a with Florida lead of 131,000 and trailing Barack Obama by only 163,000 votes out of around 30 million votes cast. The third key for Clinton comes into play.

3) Polls: Obama and Clinton would both have popular vote arguments. What Super Delegates will have to look at are the polls by Messrs. Zogby, Rasmussen, etal. If either Hillary or Obama leads National opinion polls, that would be an indicators in their favor.

But beyond that, Super Delegates will have to look at who is doing better against McCain. Right now, Clinton is, but only marginally.

If Hillary Clinton can get to the points where all things are pretty much equal (a small delegate and 0.5% popular vote deficit not withstanding) she can walk away with the nomination. Of course, she will have to have Obama as her Veep. She can’t win in the Fall without him. However, if she properly whips over the next couple of months, he’ll have little choice but to come on board.

If people perceive the election was “stolen” he can come back with lots of sympathy in 2012. If, on the other hand, he blows it, than Democrats have no tolerance for those who blow it. Other the hard core Obama folks, no one will want him in 2012. At this point, the only ticket for the Dems is one with Clinton and Obama on it (with the notable exception being the speculative Al Gore ticket.)