May 22, 2008

The Abandoned Democrats? And Other Campaign Finance Notes

Posted by Adam Graham in : Idaho Conservative, The

Democrats aren’t helping their three newest Ada County incumbents according to the latest campaign finance reports.

Branden Durst (D-18A) has received less than $4,000 in contributions, Phyllis King (D-18B) just over $1000.

Rep. Sue Chew (D-17B), who should have a strong challenge from Dan Loughery, has raised $5,100 or a few dollars more than Ellit Werk, who had more than $20,000 in the bank coming into this election.

These three seats are in play. Each of those representatives faces incumbents who are coming loaded with money.

Whoever wins the Hartnett/Ellsworth primary will raise serious money, ditto Becky Young who has raised $5000 in contributions, plus issued nearly $9,000 in loans to her campaign.

The picture is not much better in District 16. The Democrats control all 3 seats, and all 3 are open. In the State Senate Race, Christ Troupis has raised $15,000. Republican Dennis Warren has only raised $7, 100, but even he is slightly ahead of State Representative Les Bock (D-16B), who has raised $6,900. The Democrats actually enjoy a solid fund-raising edge in Seat A, and in Seat B, but it’s a much more narrow one if Ralph Perez is the candidate.

I think, through a combination of defending open seats and competitive races in the Bench, the Democrats will give up some of the gains they made in 2006.

Other money notes:

  • Why haven’t the Libertarian candidates filed their disclosures? Is this some protection against campaign finance regulations we haven’t been let in on?
  • As of the last filing, in District 14’s Senate Primary, Chuck Winder is outraising Senator Stan Bastian by about 3:1. The only reason Bastian is even close is due to the remaining funds from his 2006 campaign. Two Firefighter’s Unions have sent big checks to save Bastian, but it may not be enough. Incumbency has a premium, mainly in name recognition. However, money is powerful, too, and Winder is definitely not an unknown.
  • In the Senate Primary in District 16, Troupis is outraising Warren 2:1. Given the Statesman’s endorsement of Troupis, Troupis’ fundraising edge, and better overall signage, it’s really hard for me to see Warren pulling this out.
  • In the Seat B Republican Primary, Ralph Perez is easily outraising his opponents. However, he’s had to take on quite a bit of relief from too much debt and you have to wonder if he can continue into the Fall or hit a brick wall against Elfreda Higgins.
  • In District 18, Gail Hartnett has the edge with $24,000 raised, while Julie Ellsworth has raised $15,500. This will be a close primary, because I think Ellsworth’s name recognition will help her make this a close race.
  • District 20: Per the last reporting period, Shirley McKague had raised more money this period than Mark Snodgrass, but Snodgress had about an $18K pad coming in of leftover money from his 2006 house campaign.
  • District 17 and District 19 Senate: Though Elliot Werk and Nicole LeFavour will have opponents this fall, it’s hard to consider these races close when you note that Werk’s opponent T. Allen Hoover has raised $250, and Chuck Meissner has raised zero. Still, it’s better to have someone on those tickets than no one.
  • District 19B: You’d think, in Democratic District 19B, the seat of retiring State Rep. Nicole LeFavour, that former Ada County Democratic Chairman Brian Cronin would be leading his Republican opponent in fundraising. You’d be wrong. Kevin McGowan has an almost absurd $35,000, $22,000 of which is a loan to himself. The other $13,000+ are contributions from individuals and PACs. Twenty are Idaho Individuals and PACs, the other 36 are from out of state: places like New York, New Jersey, and San Francisco. Of course, his opponent has received his share out of state money, too, meaning there are thousands of out-of-Idaho dollars working in this State legislative race. Enjoy this race, District 19, you may be voting, but out of staters are paying for it. McGowan has convinced two Idaho PACs to kick in $1,000 each plus $1,000 from the Ada County Central Committee. Do they know something we don’t about McGowan’s potential in District 19? I guess we’ll find out this fall.

1 Comment

  1. Comment by Bubblehead

    Actually, Rep. Snodgrass in District 20 raised a lot more money than Sen McKague if you don’t count the $10K that she “gave” to herself; she only raised $5K from other people. She’s going down hard, and she’ll blame black helicopters and the New World Order when she loses.

RSS feed for comments on this post.

Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.