The Battleground States: May 2008 Edition

There’s much talk about national polls in the presidential race. Of course, national popularity doesn’t matter. (Ask Andrew Jackson in 1824, Grover Cleveland in 1888, or Al Gore in 2000.) The electoral college picks the presidency. It usually corresponds to the popular vote, but a candidate must reach the magic number of 270 electoral votes regardless of their totals.

There are 40 States and the District of Columbia, you can pretty much bet on how they’ll go in the Fall. If you take these 40 States, you get a total of 229 Electoral Votes for McCain, 200 for Obama. What remains are 10 true battleground states.

Colorado: Leans Obama

Latest polls show Obama up narrowly. State has been trending Democratic in recent years.

New Mexico: Leans Obama

Latest reliable polls show Obama up 9.

Nevada: Leans McCain

Latest polls show McCain up double digits. The State should narrow considerably by the Fall, but McCain gets the advantage at this point.

Iowa: Leans Obama

As a neighboring Senator who took Iowa by storm, Obama has to be favored.

Missouri: Leans McCain

Most recent polls show McCain up 6 in the Show Me State. Large number of rural voters could hurt Obama.

Wisconsin: Toss-up

Real Clear Politics poll average shows Obama up less than 2%

Michigan: Toss Up

The Michigan Primary fiasco and the state’s unpopular governor appear to be doing some damage to the Obama Campaign that he’ll have to repair before the fall.

Ohio: Toss Up

Polls are tight in Ohio. If there had not been a Marriage Amendment on the ballot in 2004, it’s doubtful Bush would have won. The GOP brand is more damaged in Ohio than elsewhere thanks to Former Governor Bob Taft and Former Congressman Bob Ney.

Pennsylvania: Leans Obama

Despite losing to Hillary Clinton, Obama’s lead appears solid in Pennsylvania for now.

New Hampshire: Leans McCain

The most recent polls show a McCain lead. He’s spent hundreds of days in the state over the past few years, which has given him a solid shot of avoiding another New England shut out for Republicans.

When you add the leaners in, McCain’s electoral vote lead is 249-242 with 47 votes toss-ups.

Potential States in Play:

Virginia: I’m almost ready to declare Virginia a battleground with its ever increasing Democratic base in the Northern Part of the State and a recent Rasmussen poll showing McCain’s lead at only 3%. The Carolinas are not in play no matter what Obama says, but Virginia could be another story. And if Obama wins it, it’ll represent a crushing blow to Republicans. No Republican Presidential nominee has lost Virginia since Goldwater.

Minnesota: Recent polls show a double digit lead for Obama, but Minnesota has been a battleground in recent elections and could be in this one. Still, this doesn’t seem to be a year for McCain to capture a state that went for Walter Mondale.

California: McCain thinks he can make California competitive. I think he’s wasting his time. While the RCP poll average shows Obama up less than 8% in the State, being lured by the false hope of California is a Republican tactical mistake whereby GOP candidates waste valuable time and money on a state they can’t win. Ditto: New Jersey. With a limited budget, a California campaign would drain McCain and make him less competitive in other states where he can win.

Obama’s big positive in the race is money. He’s likely to reject Federal Matching funds and have far more money than McCain. This means Obama can afford to spend a lot and challenge McCain in his own backyard. Obama has the money to start more political brushfires than McCain can put out.

What McCain has going for him are bellwether states. There are four states which are good predictors of the Fall election. Since 1904, Missouri has only once failed to pick the Presidential winner (1956). Since 1908, Nevada has only once failed to pick the Presidential winner (1976). Kentucky and Ohio have picked the President in every election since 1960. In none of these states is Obama leading. In fact the traditional bellwether state of Kentucky is really off the table in this election, while Obama trails significantly in Missouri and Nevada.

The historical conditions of the country are against McCain winning the popular vote, but the electoral vote is far more hopeful.