The Connecticut Crack-Up

Cross-posted from Where I Stand:

Democrats in Connecticut seem determined to put a Safe Democratic Senate Seat in jeopoardy. First, a long-time Lieberman confidant is suggesting Lieberman run as an Independent if he suffers a primary loss to Ned Lamont. Meanwhile at the same time, Chuck Schumer is saying the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee may sit out or spend money on behalf of Lieberman if Lamont wins. This is angering the Daily Kos, which is supporting Lamont.

Connecticut Democrats have a lot on their plate come August. Here’s the stakes. If Connecticut Democrats nominate Lieberman, they’re going to tick off the national activists big time.

If they nominate Lamont, they face two possibilities. One, Lieberman running as an Independent is a pretty strong disaster potential for the state party. In 2000, Republicans got 34% of the vote against Lieberman when there was no question about the guy winning re-election in a walk. Now, imagine the scene, LaMont, Lieberman, and Republican Alan Schlessinger and throw in Green Party Candidate Ralph Ferucci for good measure and suddenly, you’ve got a seat in play where 36 or 37% of the vote probably takes it. If I’m Elizabeth Dole, I start dumping money into Connecticutf or the upset and you end up with an election result of perhaps something like 36% Schlessinger, 33% Lieberman, 30% Lamont, and 1% for Ferucci.

The implications for the Democrats if the DSCC stays out of it or goes in for Lieberman are again huge. The Daily Kos people and the far left who are already not too happy with the Democrats are going to be royally ticked with good cause. The normal activist is going to say, "Look, we put in the money, we played by the rules, and we won this thing, but we’re being robbed." You could see an anger factor towards Democrats and the dissolution of the Democratic Party could begin in this election.

Now, the third possibility for Democrats is that Lieberman loses and falls on his sword like a good loyal Democrat. LaMont cruises to a 57-42% victory in the Fall. Everything’s fine with Kos, everything’s fine in Connecticut. Its outside the state where the problems come.

The National GOP will talk of betrayal, they’ll talk about how a man like Lieberman went from being his party’s nominee for Vice-President to being an outcast despite the fact of his career of utmost honor and integrity, despite the fact that he only had a 17% career rating with ACU. The man voted against confirming Alito and confirming Judge Thomas. He  voted against banning partial birth abortion. He was against the marriage amendment. He was a man of strong religious conviction and the Democrats ousted him in a purge.

The sorry tail of Joe Lieberman will be told around political campfires from coast to coast, and it’ll be effective as the Democratic Party is portrayed as the Party of Kos, a radical group of far leftists who disdain ordinary Americans. It will be given new power in the defeat of Lieberman and could cause drastic reversals across the country. 

The battle in Connecticut is about more than one race or two men, its the very future of the Democratic Party that’s on the line and the costs either way could be substantial

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