The Nevada Surprise?
Posted by Adam Graham in : Idaho Conservative, TheRandy Stapilus shares a fascinating map of where Ron Paul’s 4th quarter contibutions are coming from. It shows Paul with a lot of strength out West in terms of fundraising. In fact all the states where Paul is receiving the most donations per million people (with the exception of New Hampshire) are in the West. The most interesting information, though is found in another section of the same site that shows he’s gotten more than 600 contributions from Nevada this quarter. That’s indicative of great organizational strength and I think it’s critical for Paul.
Paul’s best shot at this point is to finish 2nd in New Hampshire. After New Hampshire, he has to win somewhere else to keep his momentum going. Nevada is the most reasonable target. 600 contributions isn’t all that significant until you consider that it shows dedication and for every person contributing, there’s probably 3-5 supporters that aren’t.
The Key thing about the Nevada Caucus’ is the time. It’ll amount to a 45 minute-1 hour meeting held 9 a.m. on a Saturday Morning during the Winter. To do that requires dedication. Have 3000-4000 supporters show up could be enough to mean victory. For Paul, winning Nevada means that most likely other states may follow. But for the Paul campaign, Nevada is the waterloo.
UPDATE
Apparently for some folks, my thoughts on the Paul campaign are far too pessimistic. At Digg, a commenter says:
I disagree with this article a little. It says he needs to take 2nd in NH? Who’s to say he isn’t going to take 1st in New Hampshire? And an estimate of 3000-4000 supporters in Nevada? He’s already getting 5000+ over on the East coast.
For clarification, by he “has to finish 2nd”, I mean if he wants to have a shot at winning, he needs to finish 2nd. As to why he can’t finish first in NH, Romney is the governor who of a neighboring state. Currently, Romney leads Paul by 25 points. Now, anything could happen, but I think the odds of Ron Paul winning New Hampshire are worse than his odds of winning the Presidency. The latter is like the Cubs winning the World Series, the former is like parting the Red Sea.
Comment by jkhutz
“Currently, Romney leads Paul by 25 points.”
Umm, that would be by 25 points on a poll of the voters in the most recent (Bush) Republican party primary — in a state that where the MAJORITY of voters are Independent and those independents can vote in either party’s primary… meaning that th 25 point lead in the polls is rather suspect.
“Now, anything could happen, but I think the odds of Ron Paul winning New Hampshire are worse than his odds of winning the Presidency.”
Actually, his odds of winning in New Hampshire are probably as good as his chances of winning anywhere, and in the end possibly everywhere.
You see, in spite of media fantasies, the actual in-depth support for the purported “front-runners” is very shallow, and most of them are unable to actually generate any passionate support, despite the expenditure of $50 million each (Giuliani, McCain, and Romney have each spent at least that much so far).
Since they are all likely to be fairly matched in money and advertising funds — the strength of the volunteer forces will be a major tipping factor. And only Ron Paul has anything at all for true grassroots support.
See here: http://www.infiniteronpaul.com/meetupmaps/