The Ron Paul Factor

Idaho’s Primary is set for the end of May, but some races are foregone conclusions, particularly the Presidential race on the GOP side where John McCain is the presumptive nominee. However, Ron Paul remains on the ballot and just won his biggest percentage of the vote in a primary in Pennsylvania (16%) which raises an interesting question. What will Ron Paul do in Idaho?

For an idea, let’s take a look at history when the Republican nominee was George W. Bush with which Conservatives were far more satisfied. The Result: Bush 73%, Alan Keyes, 19%, Uncommitted, 7%. Now if Alan Keyes got that in 2000, what will Paul get in ’08?

I’ve seen a very subtle Ron Paul movement (if you call signs by the side of the freeway subtle.) There are candidates running for office on the Republican side taking their inspiration from Paul. The State’s libertarian leanings and the doubt in McCain could end up serving Paul a supersized helping of votes.

I wouldn’t consider it unimaginable for Paul to capture 25% of the Primary vote (if he gets 30% I’d be shocked), with other up-ticket races not big draws, Paul’s committed cadre could play a key role in the primaries. The big question: What effect would it have on down ticket races?

I think it would help identifiable paleoconservative candidates like Shirley McKague. It would also make Mike Simpson’s margin in Congressional District 2 a tad smaller. (Simpson would probably end up with a percentage in the 60s, rather than in the 70s.) This is an underrated factor that we’re going to watch closely.